Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Stage 6 Preview
By @EchelonsHub
The GC fight was put onto secondary display today as the breakaway succeeded. With the queen stage tomorrow, it was expected that racing would be relatively calmer today, the stage winner came from the breakaway who took off on the early hills. Warren Barguil was the strongest of the group, attacking on the final kilometers and keeping his gap until the finish. Evenepoel attack on the penultimate climb in the GC group, with Pogacar and Vingegaard in the wheel, however the trio went off the course in the descent and the GC fight ended up relatively neutralized as only small splits at the sprint were seen.
Positive: Barguil taking a strong win, his first WT win since the Tour de France 2017.
Negative: Only small gaps so no real looser on the day. Tao Hart loosing 19 seconds on the GC fight was an unexpected loss and they mostly arrived together at the finish.
The Route
The queen stage. Tirreno-Adriatico is never shy of putting forward hard summit finishes but that’s not the case this year. However, I would argue that the finale will be significantly harder than what the race has had in some of the last few years.
The stage has 213.6Km to go which sees distance as a further challenge, the start is flat which doesn’t favour a breakaway, it’s likely a day to be discussed between the GC riders as they will have their opportunity to test their legs on a couple of longer efforts, where the gradients will tighten.
The finish is at the town of Carpegna and the peloton will tackle Monte Carpegna twice. The first of them being the complete ascent, 13.5Km at 7% to summit with 31 kilometers to go, which will then see an extremely narrow and complicated descent.
The riders will then enter Carpegna again and tackle the toughest part of the section for a second time, which are 6 kilometers at a whole 10%, one of the toughest ascents of the first part of the season. The riders will go through the summit with 12 kilometers to go and tackle the very same descent once more.
The final 1.5Km are at 3.5%, not a complicated effort after such a brutal section of the stage, but nevertheless there are some minutes to make differences In there, possibly reel someone back in.
The Weather
There will be modest wind from the east, but I don’t expect that to have much effect, neither throughout the stage or in the final ascent. It will be cold and that may be more of a challenge for some.
Breakaway chances: 10%
A full-out GC fight will take place. There aren’t many strong climbers who’ve lost time and the start isn’t really hard, so I don’t expect a strong breakaway. UAE will be pushing the pace to go for the stage win surely, besides the final set of climbs will be brutal and only a very strong climber can win such a stage.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar – The man to beat. I would assume him going off the course like today is the only way to distance him, let’s see if he keeps his run of form to consolidate his overall classification win.
Jonas Vingegaard – His time-trial was not good, however Vingegaard has shown some good form in the meantime. The longer climbs will suit him better, Vingegaard will surely be looking to attack the race.
Remco Evenepoel – The climbs will be hard for him but he’s got good form, so it’s not a good idea to discard him. His biggest issue may be the descent, it’s quite dangerous and he doesn’t have good memories of technical Italian descents.
Enric Mas – He’s been quite hidden, but finished alongside the best today. Mas is a very strong climber, tomorrow is the day he’ll be anticipating and he can do some damage.
Bahrain – With Mikel Landa and Damiano Caruso, Bahrain have strong firepower to bomb the ascents. Pello Bilbao could, and should be the team’s main weapon perhaps, he’s coming In with great form into the race and the technical descent will be his playground, could very well get a gap on the first descent and carry his speed into the final climb.
INEOS – Tao Hart and Richie Porte have both had bad days so far, which have harmed their GC ambitions. However, both have looked good at some point, they are strong climbers and can do something tomorrow.
Miguel Angel Lopez – Does he have the form? It’s hard to tell, but it’s a day to be decided in some rough climbs. Not very long, as he’d prefer, but quite steep, good for the Colombian lightweight.
Jai Hindley – Hindley has been looking very sharp. This type of grueling, steep climb is the type that suits him and although I wouldn’t put him at the level of Pogacar, he is sure to be one of the most direct contenders.
The likes of Giulio Ciccone, Wilco Kelderman, Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet, Thibaut Pinot, Rigoberto Uran and Lorenzo Fortunato are all reasonable contenders for the Top10, Victor Lafay has ridden strong so far and could also surprise again. The list extends, the quality in the race’s climber field is immense and I’m missing some strong names, but the level is ruthless and the riders need to be at their best to be in contention here.
Inside The Bus
This morning I talk to…
#81 Mattia Bais – Let’s hang around the peloton today Mattia. I’ll tell some of our better climbers to go into the break, you stay in the peloton and protect Jefferson who will be testing himself in the stage. Final stage is much better for you to attack.
#204 Tsgabu Grmay – Let’s see Tsgabu, we don’t have a leader here so you have green light to do what you want. A breakaway shouldn’t succeed but you’re allowed to go up the road, we never know if we can be lucky, you have good legs and should be strong up the mountains I believe.
#23 Xandro Meurisse – You did good in this last stage already Xandro, very close to an important stage win. Tomorrow you can relax and make sure Tim makes it home safely, it won’t be easy.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐Pogacar
⭐⭐Vingegaard, Mas, Landa, Bilbao, MA.Lopez, Hindley
⭐Evenepoel, Porte, Hart, Ciccone, Kelderman, Lafay, Pozzovivo, Bardet, Pinot, Pozzovivo, Uran
It’s not a complicated assumption that Tadej Pogacar will be very hard to drop tomorrow. UAE have chased hard every single day so far, I expect more of the same and the race leader to take another win.
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