2018 Australian Road Race Preview
By David Hunter
Ballarat 185.6km
It’s official people, the cycling season is back. I hope you’ve all enjoyed the break, but I’m sure you can’t wait for the action to begin.
As usual, a massive thanks to the wonderful people, Lasterketa Burua, for the profile. Make sure you give them a follow on twitter, or visit their website.
The Route
After many years of using the same circuit, the organisers have tinkered a little with the course, adding in a technical section through Federation University. This has a number of corners and could provide a launching pad for a late attack. Apart from that, it’s the same gruelling route that I love, but with one less lap.
Mount Buninyong
The climb can be split into two sections. After coming through the finishing line, the riders see the road rise up towards the feed zone. This is a gradual climb and it’s hard to make any significant differences here.
Once through the feed zone, we have a short flat section, before they turn left and the road really kicks up again. This is where the majority of the fans will be and they will be cheering on the attacks as the road eventually hits around 8%.
Officially, the climb is 2.4km at 5.8%, nothing that would worry professional cyclists. The problem for the peloton is the 16 laps. Once the pace has hit maximum, the riders all have some fatigue in the legs, making the last two laps incredibly difficult. Tiredness is the big issue for the riders, not the gradient of the climb.
Teams
This race has been dominated by Orica for a number of years. Despite the change of name, this should continue. Mitchelton-Scott arrive with Durbridge, Edmondson, Ewan, Hamilton, Hayman, Hepburn, Howson, Meyer and Power. Not as strong as in the old days, but that is only natural as the team has more international riders compared to before.
Who will they ride for? It looks like they have a number of cards to play, with Durbridge, Ewan and Meyer looking like their realistic hopes for a win. Caleb has been close here before and has he gets older, he should challenge for the national title. Yes, he is a brilliant sprinter, but he is also a rider that can get over small climbs.
Cameron Meyer has returned to the squad and he is always a danger in this race. A rider that easily copes with the climbs and packs a mean sprint. Their other option is Luke Durbridge. A former winner, he arrives lacking some racing. His 2017 season was ruined by a crash in the Tour de France, but he did return late in the season. His 2nd place in the TT was a sign that Durbridge is already on good form.
BMC arrive with a small, but hugely impressive squad. They line up with Richie Porte, Simon Gerrans, Rohan Dennis and the defending champion, Miles Scotson. They don’t have the same numbers as Mitchelton-Scott, but they do possess a huge amount of quality. It will be interesting to see who they ride for, with questions surrounding the form of Richie Porte. He would normally be the man for this course, but this will be his second race since crashing out of the Tour de France. He could act as an excellent decoy, allowing Dennis to slip up the road. These boys will need to think carefully about their tactics. I would imagine that Gerrans will be held back for a sprint, but at 37 years of age, does he still possess the speed required to take the crown?
Bennelong SwissWellness are the other big team here. What they lack in terms of world tour quality, they make up for with numbers. They start with Bayly, Bowden, Crome, Elliott, Giacoppo, Harper, Lake, Roe, Toovey, Von Hoff and Ward. That gives them 10 riders and makes them the largest squad in the race. I have a huge amount of time for this squad and respect the work that they do, but in this race, they lack quality at the end of the race. To take advantage of their superior numbers, they have to ride a tactically astute race. There is no point simply waiting for the last two laps, as the world tour riders will be too strong for them.
We also have a dangerous group of world tour riders who arrive without any help. These guys have to hope for a large slice of luck and good legs. The other teams can ride them out of the race, but we’ll just have to wait and see if this happens.
Weather
Looks like a nice day for the bunch, the temperatures aren’t too hot. The wind is relatively gentle and is coming from the South, making it a tailwind on the climb. That is usually good news for the climbers and bad news for the sprinters.
Contenders
Caleb Ewan – after successfully defending his criterium title, all eyes are firmly fixed on the little man. How will he fit into the Mitchelton-Scott tactics? Despite his talent, it is dangerous to try and ride for a sprint. When the attacks come on the final lap, I doubt that Ewan will be able to respond to the big moves. The sensible move, would be to send Ewan in a break and let him fight against some of the “smaller” names.
Luke Durbridge – the former champion is back and looking good to challenge for another title. He won the title in 2013 and was outstanding here in 2017. He is a hugely talented rider and is developing into a one day expert. Turbo Durbo is a huge threat to the others and should start as the outright leader for Mitchelton-Scott.
Richie Porte – here to get some kilometres in the legs before the Tour Down Under. Expect to see him ride as a teammate and try to put the bunch under pressure. A few efforts up Mount Buninyong is perfect preparation for the TDU.
Rohan Dennis – can he double up after winning the TT crown? He should be the main option for BMC, but it’ll still be very hard for him to win the title. As talented as he is, Dennis has never won a one day race. The TT showed that his form is good, but he needs to ride a clever race. His fast sprint is good news, but most of the main contenders can sprint faster than him.
Simon Gerrans – not the force he used to be, but given his record on this course, he cannot be written off. BMC will likely keep him for a sprint, allowing his teammates to attack. Given his age and recent record, I don’t see him winning the crown.
Cameron Bayly – 4th here in 2017, he will lead the hopes of the Bennelong SwissWellness squad. He had a very impressive 2017, finishing 2nd in the Cameron Highlands stage of the Tour of Langkawi, this also propelled him to 2nd on GC. A rider that performs well in the mountains, but also packs a fast sprint, he has a strong chance of taking home a medal. That would be a massive result for his team.
Brendan Canty – the man who thought he’d won the race in 2017. After miscalculating the number of laps left, the Cannondale man was left with egg on his face. A solid climber, he has an outside chance of success but that is about it.
Chris Hamilton – the Hurricane is a late entrant to the race. He is a former under 23 champion and knows how to win in Ballarat. 2017 was his first season with Sunweb and he also got to race his first grand tour, the Vuelta Espana. No doubt, he will see a bounce from this and I’m excited to see what he can achieve in 2018. He is an outside contender for this race, I hope we see him attack from distance.
Jay McCarthy – a rider that usually starts the year in amazing form. He packs a strong punch and can be very explosive on Mount Buninyong. He is the only rider from Bora, that makes it hard for him to win, but not impossible. Also in his favour is his sprinting speed, McCarthy will be very hard to beat in a small sprint. Last year, he attacked on numerous occasions, but it just didn’t work for him. That is the problem of being a solo rider!
Nathan Haas – the man they’re all talking about. He was 3rd here in 2017, but was that his big chance? He has moved to Katusha and now has no help in this race, last year he had a couple of teammates. If we get a sprint, Haas will be very happy, as long as Caleb isn’t there. I would expect him to be faster than an ageing Simon Gerrans, but waiting for a sprint is a dangerous option. Haas is an attacking rider and he knows that the big teams will need to be placed under pressure. It will be fascinating to see some of the solo riders forming an alliance, that would really ramp up the pressure.
Nathan Earle – was very close to winning this in 2017, but he got the timing of his attacks wrong. Last year, he was riding to earn a contract, this season he is back at pro conti level. If he boxes clever, he has a chance of success.
Prediction Time
This is a tough one to predict. I think we’ll see Mitchelton-Scott and Bennelong SwissWellness hit the morning break. Both squads have a numerical advantage over the others and they need to make this count. After the break goes, we’ll have to see which of the solo riders take the gamble and make the move. If BMC miss the move, they will be put under pressure to work all day. If they manage to make the move, who will chase in the bunch?
The outcome of this race will be largely influenced by the composition of the morning move. The opening couple of laps will be fascinating to watch. Given the numbers, I think we’ll see the morning move staying away. The solo riders like Haas and McCarthy are far too dangerous to take to the end. I don’t see any of the larger teams taking risks and letting these guys stay in contention for the end of the race. Go for the break and go hard!
Looking at the TT and form in 2017, I think we’ll see Luke Durbridge take another title. He’s developing into a brilliant racer.
David HunterFollow us on @CiclismoInterJoin us on facebook: Ciclismo Internacional
Copyright © 2012-2018 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved
