2022 Clásica San Sebastián – Overall Preview

By @EchelonsHub

With the Tour de France over the latter third of the season begins, with the World Tour peloton back on the road in the Basque Country where the riders will be facing the hills of the Clásica San Sebastián. 

The Route

The route will total a long 223 kilometers on the road, without too much flat terrain as the mountains of the region will see the riders constantly go up and down throughout the day, totaling at just over 4000 meters of climbing throughout the day. 

The race sees a lot of climbs early on, although it never goes into the high mountains, instead going through some hilly roads. The race is to be decided in the final hour of racing however, with three decisive climbs. 

The first is the Jaizkibel, just on the outskirts of San Sebastián and a climb that is traditional in the race. It’s 7.4 kilometers long at 5.8% and summits with 63 kilometers to go, with a rather technical descent afterwards. 

A crucial ascent will be to Erlaitz, right afterwards. After it’s summit, with 43Km to go, there is a plateau section which can easily be a launchpad for crucial attacks as the peloton will be thinned out and many will be looking to save their legs for the final ascent. However on the slopes of the climb, which averages over 10% for 4 kilometers, differences can be made, attacks can be dealt and serious damage can be created for the race’s outcome. 

Over the last few years the crucial point has become the Alto de Murgil. Not decisive in the last two editions, however no matter what happens this will be a critical moment, as the riders look to save their legs for the final 900 meters of the climb where the gradients are vicious, up to 18%. A pure anaerobic effort which finishes with only 8 kilometers to go.

A short descent and a fast run-in back to the city center leaves the riders close to the finish, where either a small sprint fight or a solo winner will be crowned in San Sebastián. 

The Weather

Modest temperatures and a small breeze from the north. Overall it shouldn’t really make any significant difference, the main two climbs and terrain are very rugged and covered. 

Tactics

The weather shouldn’t affect the race however the strategies of the team’s should be similar to the previous years, as is frequent in the hilly classics it will be all about having the numbers and pushing responsibility to rival teams. 

Attacks on the final climb are obvious, but the climb is frequently not hard enough to see a solo winner, instead a group with uneven pace. Often the attacks come on the flat sections, specifically over the climbs – of Erlaitz specially – which is where most will have their attention to play with numbers. Having several cards to play is crucial here, because they will be important to always be represented in front, avoid working, also as most riders won’t know which will be the decisive attack. 

The Favourites

BikeExchange – Simon Yates has shown great form lately and will be a strong card to play, alongside Dion Smith who’s been riding with him. Adding Michael Matthews and Nick Schultz who may bring that great form from the Tour, making it a team with a lot of depth and a lot of scenarios to play with. 

Quick-Step – Remco Evenepoel has won the race back in 2019 under impressive circumstances. His best chances would rely on a similar move, however that’s something that in 2022 all rivals are aware of. Nevertheless a big contender, with Mikkel Honoré another options within a well-rounded team. 

UAE – Tadej Pogacar will be at the start. Will he bring his Tour form? If so it will be a tough challenge for other riders, however with João Almeida and Juan Ayuso the team brings other options too and are likely to attack the race hard. 

INEOS – Daniel Martinez is said to be INEOS’ leader for the race, which is a tricky situation as he’s a brilliant climber but his Tour de France was incredibly disappointing. However he showed glimpses of form in the final week, he may bounce back here. Carlos Rodriguez, Pavel Sivakov and Tao Geoghegan Hart bring options too, however being a climber-focused lineup it should need to attack early and in specific moments. 

BORA – Jai Hindley is back to competition. This won’t be the most suited race for him but he can be around the best, however the team features Wilco Kelderman and Emanuel Buchmann who go well on open races, alongside Patrick Konrad and Max Schachmann who bring over Tour legs into the Basque Country. 

EF – Alberto Bettiol is a dangerous rider for such a classic specially in his current form, however EF have so many cards to play that they have a chance of repeating last year’s title. Defending champion Neilson Powless won’t be present, however with Esteban Chaves, Ruben Guerreiro, Rigoberto Uran and Odd Christian Eiking, there are a lot of outsiders. 

Bahrain – A team with perhaps no true favourite for the win but Luis Leon Sanchez is on great form and favourable terrain, and with Wout Poels, Matej Mohoric, Gino Mader and Santiago Buitrago, it’s another team with depth. 

Furthermore the list of favourites must include the likes of Alejandro Valverde and David Gaudu who are riders who thrive in this type of short but sharp climb, however their chances are indeed if the race stays consolidated as they will be heavily covered.

The likes of Bauke Mollema, Lorenzo Rota, Domenico Pozzovivo, Guillaume Martin and Tiesj Benoot will also be dangerous riders if they find themselves on the attack, whilst puncheurs like Alex Aranburu, Patrick Bevin and Andreas Kron can be tricky wildcards in case the race is to finish in a sprint. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Pogacar, Matthews

⭐⭐S.Yates, Evenepoel, Almeida, Bettiol, Valverde

⭐Schultz, Honoré, Martínez, Ayuso, Hindley, Kelderman, Gaudu, Benoot, Aranburu

A win for Michael Matthews is my call. An open race, like every year, however I think BikeExchange will have interest in a sprint and the Australian can survive the climbs, and with their depth they can either cover moves or work hard to keep the race as compact as possible. 

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