2022 Flèche Wallone – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The second round of the Ardennes classics. Flèche Wallone is perhaps the most conservative race of the trio, and it comes as one purely fit for the puncheurs, although the climbers can also get themselves in the fight for the win atop the Mur de Huy.  

The Route 

202 kilometers and 3200 meters of climbing. That is the data you’ve got for this race, it is one that doesn’t feature any long ascent however it does feature a lot of rolling roads throughout the entire route. 

This however has proven to be over the year a race which is only decided in the final climb, hence most favourites will just ride as conservatively as possibly until that point whilst their teams to the work to control the race. The race is decided on a circuit, in which the riders will ride 3 laps of with 31 kilometers in distance.  

In the final lap we’ve got the Côte d’Ereffe with 2Km at 5.8%, which summits with 19.5 kilometers to go. As for the Côte de Cherave it summits with a mere 6 kilometers to go which may open the race a bit more. It’s 1.5Km at 6.9% and features gradients in the double digits, it’s no easy feature. A small descent and fast run-up to Huy will follow, until the final climb.  

A grind, an ascent that gets steeper all the way up. It’s a pure anaerobic effort, and is ideal for the lightweight puncheurs. 

The Weather

There will be meaningful modest wind from the northeast. What this means is that until the final circuit there will generally be tail/crosswinds, and inside it will see cross-headwind after the Mur de Huy where often there are attacks before the final lap. The climb itself will be sheltered from the wind, but there will be exposed sections which will make for tense racing. 

Tactics 

I won’t go deep, Fleche Wallone is a bunch sprint finish race for climbers and puncheurs. This is 2022, the startlist has immense talent, so I think there can definitely be dangerous attacks, but if both UAE and Quick-Step commit to the traditional finale then there’s no chance to see a different scenario. 

If they risk, which I think is unlikely, having riders like Evenepoel and Hirschi attack, then it’s possible to have a different outcome, but once again I don’t expect that. 

The Favourites 

Julian Alaphilippe & Remco Evenepoel – Alaphilippe is the perfect rider for this finale, as is proven by his victory for three times already. Without his crash at Brabantse Pijl, his lead-up looked perfect, however that will pose a question mark that will only be answered in the race. With Evenepoel they have a weapon to attack from far, but I don’t think they’ll be racing individually.  

Tadej Pogacar – UAE have further depth. Pogacar can do anything, and is rightfully one of the main candidates for the win here, but UAE have the cards to go on the attack too as with Juan Ayuso, Marc Hirschi, Marc Soler, Diego Ulissi and Jan Polanc they can definitely put other teams under pressure.  

INEOS – Tom Pidcock is a big candidate for this finale in my eyes, a lightweight explosive puncheur, he just needs the form because this year INEOS are coming with a very strong lineup to the Ardennes, with a team stacked with talent from end to end. Realistically, I could mention all riders, but I’ll say that some will be protected, they have the numbers and some responsibility to attack the race as they bring in Carlos Rodríguez, Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez and Michal Kwiatkowski who should all be able to ride quite strongly in the final hours of racing, and maybe put on a tactical race that can earn them a win as has been the case many times over the last few weeks.  

Benoît Cosnefroy – Second here in 2020, Benoit Cosnefroy doesn’t have such a strong team, but this is a race where that isn’t necessarily critical, he just has to follow the right wheels at the right times. He’s got the form, as shown by his performance at Amstel Gold Race, but he will have very tough competition. 

Jonas Vingegaard & Tiesj Benoot – Just about two of the least explosive riders in the peloton, but two who have shown terrific form this spring. With the uphill finish, no doubt we can see both Vinegegaard and Benoot in the first few places, either waiting for a sprint finale or attacking close to the finish.  

Bahrain – Another team with incredible depth, despite their current doing at the Tour of the Alps. Dylan Teuns should be the team’s main card, however they can afford to go on the attack and take their chances as they have several more outsiders such as Jack Haig, Damiano Caruso, Wout Poels and Gino Mader. 

BORA – Sergio Higuita didn’t look good at all in the Basque Country, however he has shown in previous weeks great form, and on paper he should be able to ride with the very best until the end. The team have got Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov as two further options, a climber-based lineup. 

Alejandro Valverde & Enric Mas – Valverde is the most experienced rider you have out here. Although past his prime, he can still roll along with the best at times, and with five titles to his name in this race you can bet everything that he’ll have the right tactics dialed in. Together with him is Enric Mas who can play a crucial supporting role, but also play for his own chances as he’s shown great form at Itzulia. 

The win should be in the names above, mostly so as this is usually a relatively closed race where most favourites save themselves for the final climb. There are many spots in the Top10 available though and there is serious quality. Israel also have Michael Woods and Jakob Fuglsang who can go for crucial World Tour points, whilst in that sub-plot we have Warren Barguil leading Arkea, Ion Izagirre, Jesús Herrada and Victor Lafay for Cofidis, Tim Wellens for Lotto Soudal, Domenico Pozzovivo and Quinten Hermans for Intermarché, Ruben Guerreiro and Rigoberto Uran for EF Education. 

Furthemore you’ve got outsiders in Tobias Johannessen, also Giulio Ciccone and Bauke Mollema who are genuinely riders who can be in the battle for the podium on their best day. Finally, some very different outsiders such as Michael Matthews, Vincenzo Nibali, Soren Kragh Andersen and Alexis Vuillermoz as names worth mentioning. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐ Alaphilippe, Pogacar 

⭐⭐ Cosnefroy, Pidcock, Martínez, Teuns, Higuita, Valverde, Woods 

⭐ Evenepoel, Ca.Rodríguez, Kwiatkowski, Vingegaard, Benoot, Caruso, Haig, Poels, Vlasov, Mas, Barguil, I.Izagirre, Lafay, Je.Herrada, Wellens, Mollema, Matthews, Hirschi, Ayuso 

I can’t be certain that Brabantse Pijl’s didn’t affect him, but here I will go with a win of experience. This is a race perfectly suited to the World champion, at Itzulia he looked in the ideal form, and he is just a pure classics rider, smart and perfect at conserving himself for a single bullet to spend in a race. 

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