2022 Gent-Wevelgem – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

One of the longest races of the season. Approaching the 250-kilometer mark, Gent-Wevelgem is a test of endurance whilst at the same time being a race very much defined with sharp explosive efforts. It comes the weekend before the Tour des Flandres, so most classics riders will be at the top of their game here, and some also have here their last day of racing before the big one. 

The Route

Most of the race is flat, not a hard profile which is the reason why in most years it is a reduced group sprint fighting it out for the win. The race is flat except for a hilly section which is based on three ascents of the Kemmelberg. 

Through Belvedère, the riders will climb up twice. It’s a grueling ramp where many will suffer, splits will occur in the first time up with 85 kilometers to go. From there on there will be a few gravel sectors known as the ‘plugstreets’, which will see 4.1 kilometers where mishaps may happen, a game of luck essentially when it comes to mechanicals, with the last one finishing with 66 kilometers to go. 

The second time up the Kemmelberg will be with 52 kilometers to go and in this time up attacks are certain as the classics riders will want to push on the pace to definitely drop the fast men, and make a definitive difference. 

There are a couple of hilltops following, but the last place to make a difference based on power is the ascent to the Kemmelberg via the Ossuaire. It is a harder ascent, most of it on tarmac but with small-ring gradients before the riders hit the cobbles that go up to 18%. It’s a 30-second max effort where riders tend to crack near the summit, it comes with 34.5 kilometers to go. 

From there on though there will be relief as much of the approach to Wevelgem is completely flat. There will be time to reorganize, put on a chase for both smaller and bigger groups. The race has a very interesting dynamic where the specialists and the sprinters try to balance the race towards their preferred direction, and it’s a race that usually sees different types of scenarios that lead to the win. 

The Weather

A nice sunny day with good weather in Flandres. There will be a small breeze from the northeast throughout the day. This is a race where the wind is very important, as it dictates who is favored after the bergs are done and the riders head into Wevelgem. The will be a cross-headwind/headwind throughout most of the final 35 kilometers. Although it’s not very strong, it will favour large groups. 

Tactics 

The dynamics in this race are always interesting. You have teams that want a sprint finish, and others who want to attack the race and see a small group or solo rider take a win. There will be a battle of attrition to see which side can succeed. 

The headwind will favour the sprinter alliances, but at the same time now you have riders like van Aert who can easily win in both sprint, short group or solo, which throws out the strategy of several teams as they can only win on sense of opportunity, not power. Jumbo will attack, it’s how they’ve been racing in the cobbled and it’s been highly successful so surely they’ll use the same formula. They will be the strongest teams, but INEOS, and several other riders will also likely have ideas of making moves. If there is enough collaboration they can surely hold off a peloton which will inevitably form.  

Solo attacks are highly unlikely to succeed today, the wind will make things hard, and there will be big organized groups in the final section of the stage. 

The Favourites 

The ascents of the Kemmelberg is where the race will be broken. These will only be two crucial points though, maybe three if there are teams willing to sacrifice their strength in numbers. So there won’t be any major splits as you see in most Flandrien races. Jumbo-Visma have Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte and Tiesj Benoot who will once again surely light it up in the tough part of the race, and they’ll likely have the interest of INEOS with Dylan van Baarle, Jhonatan Narvaez and Tom Pidcock, and the likes of Matej Mohoric and Matteo Trentin who are ordinarily aggressive riders who are carrying good form. 

In the rouleur field you’ve got Victor Campenaerts and Florian Vermeersch for Lotto, Nils Politt and Stefan Kung who are more likely to be able to get a strong result from an attack on flat roads and then sustain any gap. But you will then have the likes too of Michael Valgren, Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen for AG2R, Sep Vanmarcke, Soren Kragh Andersen, Alex  Aranburu and Ivan Cortina for Movistar, Jasper Stuyven, Anthony Turgis and Rasmus Tiller as those who are the most likely to survive up the climbs and be in front for the discussion of the race. 

Will the sprinters take it? 

On the sprinter side you’ll also find a heavy field. Quick-Step have Fabio Jakobsen, but they also have alternatives in Kasper Asgreen, Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert and Davide Ballerini who can serve up many alternatives and strategical power for the Belgian team. From those who are ordinarily capable of surviving this kind of race though, and perhaps as allies to Quick-Step, will be the likes of Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen and Arnaud Démare, all of which big favourites and riders whose teams will work for a sprint. Jasper Philipsen is a wildcard to me, but having two cards in Alpecin is better than one. 

You have others who ordinarily suffer but are still here, Jakobsen being a prime example, but the likes of Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, Elia Viviani and Pascal Ackermann will have a hard time up the climbs to be within possibility of discussing the race. 

Other outsider sprinters you find Biniam Ghirmay who impressed massively in E3, Arnaud de Lie for Lotto Soudal, Timothy Dupont for Bingoal and Kristoffer Halvorsen for Uno-X who can also play a role in a sprint. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐WV.Aert, Laporte, M.Pedersen, Merlier ⭐⭐Asgreen, Jakobsen, van Baarle, Ghirmay, Démare, Philipsen ⭐Teunissen, Sénéchal, Campenaert, Mohoric, Kung, Pidcock, Narváez, Aranburu, SK.Andersen, Stuyven, Trentin, Turgis, Tiller, De Lie, S.Bennett, Viviani, Groenewegen, Ackermann,  

It is a rather repetitive scenario but it’s impossible not to put it on the table. Jumbo have been racing flawlessly in the classics so far, both van Aert and Laporte are very well suited to this race. The sprinter teams will have a big saying, but the race will break apart and I suspect Jumbo will heavily force it to stay out ahead. I’ll say Christophe Laporte takes the win, after van Aert sets the race up for him. 

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Rúben Silva

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