2022 Giro d’Italia – Overall Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The first Grand Tour of the season is right ahead of us. 21 stages, a lot of mountains, a star-studded startlist, huge prizes and glory on the line every single day. For many, the best Grand Tour and dare I say race of the entire season – and with good reason. 

First Week

The race starts with a pan-flat stage off of Budapest for the Grande Partenza, which will see a hilltop finish in Visegrad which can crown many different types of riders with the first pink jersey.

The second stage of the race is a time-trial, very short and very technical, with a sharp finale in the historic center of Budapest. A complicated one to manage, and to predict too.

The third day of racing – before the first rest day – which will the race’s first pure bunch sprint, with over 200 kilometers of riding through beautiful Hungary before returning to Italy. 

Not to mainland Italy right away though, but instead the island of Sicily which will once again host a mountain-top finish at Mount Etna. The first important stage for the overall classification, it’s a very long summit finish which should be the first big test for all riders who will be eyeing a top result at the end of the race. 

Stage 5 will likely be one for the sprinters, although the first half is quite complicated and may put some fast men in trouble.

Stage 6 sees the peloton finally enter mainland Europe, via Callabria. It’s a flat stage, which will  see the sprinters battle for the win. 

Stage 7 is a brutal day, and one that can be chaotic. Although early in the race, serious differences can be made as it is a day for the climbers, with plenty of climbs throughout the day – which vary from long, inconsistent, steep and rolling – in a day that many will be nervous about, with 4700 meters of climbing.

Stage 8 will be an interesting one, as it sees an explosive circuit around the city of Napoli for what should be a bunch sprint, however with many opportunities to surprise. 

Stage 9 wraps up the opening week, and it is a monstruous day. In my personal opinion, the hardest summit finish of the race, and for many the climb-filled start will be very bad news. Up the Passo Lanciano and the full ascent of the Blockhaus, serious differences will be created in what are some of the hardest ascents in the Appennines. 

Second Week

The second week starts with an interesting stage, in which the first half is pan-flat and the second is filled with small explosive climbs that will lead the riders into the town of Jesi for what can be a very dynamic finale.

Stage 11 is pan-flat, and will see the riders have a deserved calm day through the plains of Emilia-Romagna. 

Stage 12 sees the return of the hills, however on a day that isn’t expected to see a GC battle unfold on the road to Genova. The final combination of climbs can be quite complicated, a breakaway, late attack or reduced bunch finish are all possibilities. 

Stage 13 is one for the sprinters, however with a significant trap in the Colle di Nava which will be a significant obstacle, specially if some teams push the pace. The riders make the race, and this can be quite an exciting day of racing. 

Stage 14, like the eighth stage will see a circuit around a major city, this time Torino. It is an incredibly hard day, as the riders will twice rider up and down a circuit which includes three short yet steep ascents. Superga will be on the menu, but the following hilltops will feature some gruesome gradients which can cause further damage in a day which is the opposite of controlled mountain racing.  

Perhaps what you’d expect from stage 15, however in the Aosta valley all descents are very technical and with the profile that’s on the table, the stage to Cogne may be attacked quite early. A hattrick of long and hard ascents will make for a rough finale of the second week. 

Third Week

The final week of racing starts off in brutal fashion, with around 5000 meters of climbing just after a rest day. A stage that can blow the race to bits, and dictate the end of some who’ve raced hard for two weeks. Two major mountains early on, which include the Passo del Mortirolo, and a brutal combination of ascents towards the finale, which will be gruesome for every single rider as the peloton head towards Aprica.

Stage 17 is perhaps another decisive day for the overall classification. With an uphill start at the Passo del Tonale, the day will late on see a duo of harsh ascents which will once again dictate quite a lot of damage in the peloton. The final ascent sees 8 kilometers at almost 10%, and it will be another day where the climbers have to be at their very best level. 

A final opportunity for the sprinters. To be fair, it looks like a perfectly flat stage, but it includes a gruelling hilltop towards the finale of the stage which could be a trap and game over for those who struggle to climb in the peloton. 

Stage 19 will brefly see the riders enter Slovenia, but it won’t be a pleasant ride as in it’s territory there will be a brutal ascent. The finale takes place back in Italy, in the Friuli region, where anything can be expected.

The final day in the mountains sees three mythical passes of the Giro d’Italia combined onto one final decisive day. It will be in the Dolomites that the climbers will deal their final direct blows, as they set out to take on the Passo san Pellegrino, Passo Pordoi and the infamous Passo Fedaia for one final summit finish. 

Finally, the riders arrive at Verona after an incredibly hard race, where a time-trial provides the riders with another opportunity to fight for a stage win. 

Race Map

GC Contenders

Richard Carapaz – Winner of the race in 2019, third at the Tour de France last year. Carapaz has crashed and had Covid-19 early in the year, but showed his best legs at the Volta a Catalunya proving he has in the meantime recovered fully. He’s got full support from a team where quality, experience and commitment are high, and surely he will not be easy to beat if he’s able to put his best climbing performances out on the road. 

Simon Yates – Inconsistency is his biggest challenge, however Yates can still put on a Giro-winning ride I have no doubt. He’s been close a couple of times, and last year he’s shown to still have his best legs – alongside this year’s Paris-Nice. BikeExchange don’t have a very strong team, but it’s one who’s focused on the GC only, and Yates has a mountain-filled route where he can show what he’s made of. 

Pello Bilbao & Mikel Landa – Bilbao has been impressive in this first part of the season, but I reckon that his lack of specific Giro preparation may see him not improve on the level he’s shown in April. This, nevertheless, was very high. A rider who loves the cold, the rain, technical descents, and can sprint very well. With Mikel Landa and Wout Poels, both of which had their eyes on the Giro for months, Bahrain will be extremely well equipped to ride in the mountains and will be one of the main teams throughout the race with no doubt.

João Almeida – A rider who thrives in the third week, it’s exactly what João Almeida can do that puts him in such a good position in my eyes. UAE Team Emirates come, in my opinion, with a team looking for stage wins – not one looking to support the Portuguese. Nevertheless, if the rain doesn’t mark the race, I expect to see him up there in the mountains consistently and being with no doubt a main contender for the race podium. 

BORA – hansgrohe – With the trio of Emanuel Buchmann, Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley, BORA find themselves in a position  where none of their three leaders guarantee absolute confidence of consistency, however they have several weapons and can afford to see one or two of the above not having their best level, and instead supporting the third to a better result. It’s a quality team, Buchmann and Hindley pure climbers – they’ll enjoy the route quite a lot. Whilst Wilco Kelderman has finished his last two Grand Tours in the Top5 and is a contender to do the same here. 

Miguel Ángel López – His last meet with the Giro saw him smacking a spectator on the final climb of the race, will he be able to smack his rivals on the road this time around? Astana sure do put quite some focus on being able to support the Colombian in that intent, and López seems to be coming around with good form ahead of the race. With many brutal mountains, long ones too, López will be in his domain, and can with no doubt take the final win if he manages to escape mishaps. 

Romain Bardet – A wildcard, having gotten back to a very high level last year. Romain Bardet and Thymen Arensman have been working together this year and building up a strong union. With the Dutchman saying he’s all-in for Bardet, DSM’s plan seems clear. Bardet won the Tour of the Alps, he will enjoy the harsh conditions that the Giro almost always throws around, and is having some great form. He’s a rider that usually thrives in the third week, so I actually expect a pretty strong performance from DSM.

Giulio Ciccone & Bauke Mollema – Ciccone is coming in for another tilt at the GC. This may be the year, the Italian is focused in getting a good result and he’s bound to complete that goal eventually. Bauke Mollema will likely be eyeing stage wins, however both can fit in both roles very well – as proven in the past. 

Tom Dumoulin & Tobias Foss – 2017 winner Tom Dumoulin is back and in the lead. Well, a co-lead in this case, as he has yet to show evidence of his climbing prowess since returning to pro cycling last year. He will be sharing leadership duties with Tobias Foss who finished ninth last year. Sam Oomen is also a possibility for the GC.

Guillaume Martin – An interesting addition to the GC contingent this year. Martin is a very consistent rider, and a pure climber. This Giro will suit him very well, and be a good test for the Frenchman outside of the Tour. He’s finished his last two Grand Tours in the Top10, he can do the same here, stage wins and KOM are also definitely on the table. 

Alejandro Valverde & Iván Sosa – I wouldn’t initially call Valverde a GC contender, as it’s his last Giro and his GC prowess isn’t the same as in his prime years, however the veteran always likes to hang around the climbers and he’s shown this year to still be able to ride with the best. Iván Sosa is relatively similar, not a consistent rider, but a brilliant climber in his day, and his recent GC win at the Vuelta a Asturias shows that he’s at least got a chance to fight for the classification.

Hugh Carthy – He’s not been close to the front yet this year, but Carthy has shown his form was on the rise in the recent Tour of the Alps as he finished in the Top10. He will be fighting for the general classification, although I argue that EF – like UAE – is more focused in stage wins. 

Domenico Pozzovivo – A late entry to the peloton this year. Pozzovivo only found a pro contract in the middle of February, but at 39 years of age he’s still riding with the main guns. He’s been relatively consistent since beginning his season, and will love the mountain pass-filled route which suits his lightweight structure. Intermarché have been on a role, and he’s actually got good support in the mountains to go for the GC.

The Sprinters

The race is filled with high-quality sprinters, as it would be expected of a Grand Tour. Despite it’s non friendly sprinter nature, many top sprinters come to the Giro for obvious reasons, and some abandon beforehand so as to recover for the Tour de France. The main men to look at during the bunch sprints, which should be in the battle for most wins will be Caleb Ewan, Mark Cavendish and Arnaud Démare; all of which have strong and very focused lead-outs set out to prepare them for the sprints.

On a B-Level, you’ll find the likes of Phil Bauhaus, Giacomo Nizzolo, Jakub Mareczko, Fernando Gaviria and Simone Consonni who are expected to be in front, and in the battle for the top places and wins in several sprints.

At a C-Level, there are riders who I expect to see in the sprint, but likely not in the fight for the win, unless there is a crash or crosswind splits, or attacks in some hilly stages which can end up in a sprint. Here I’ll have DSM duo Cees Bol and Alberto Dainese, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Andrea Vendrame, Biniam Girmay, Davide Cimolai, Davide Ballerini and Vincenzo Albanese.

More big names

At the same time there will be some riders which I don’t fit in neither the sprinter or GC contender category but deserve a significant mention. Mathieu van der Poel, none other, deserves a big mention and will be at the start with the goal of wearing the pink jersey after the opening day. Some of these riders will be on domestique roles, others will have the freedom to chase stages throughout the race, but they all have one thing in common: they have tremendous quality and can very well win a stage and/or fight for a secondary jersey.

In here I would add Jan Tratnik, Jhonatan Narváez, Lennard Kämna, Thomas de Gendt, Mauri Vansevenant, Alessandro Covi and Attila Valter. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Carapaz, S.Yates

⭐⭐Almeida, Landa, Bilbao, MA.López, Bardet

⭐ Kelderman, Buchmann, Ciccone, Valverde, Dumoulin, Carthy, G.Martin, Poels

A hard guess. There are several riders in an extremely high level, but I will go with Richard Carapaz to win his second Giro d’Italia. There are several riders in my eye who can take the win, and I wouldn’t exclude a surprise victory from an underrated climber. However, I value consistency, and the capacity to thrive in all terrains, and INEOS/Carapaz have everything dialed in perfectly to win a Grand Tour once again.

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