2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 1 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The Route

The Giro d’Italia starts here. It will be in Hungary that the first three stages will be ridden, with a Grande Partenza in Budapest. The first day of racing is one where much can happen in the finale, but before the riders get to it there will be a 195 kilometer day. 

Upstream in the Danube river, not too far from the capital, the riders will find the small town of Visegrád. There is where the first pink jersey will be attributed, as the peloton will see a hilltop finish after an almost pan-flat day.

The ascent is 5.5 kilometers long at 4.2% average gradient. A big-ring climb, with no big gradients present, where some sprinters can survive and have the fastest legs for the finale. The puncheurs may have more energy and hence be sharper towards the finale. And many – be it climbers, rouleurs, etc – have the opportunity to launch a late attack which can succeed in such an ascent.

The Weather

Small breeze from the south, but nothing that should make a difference in the day. There’s also a small possibility of there being rain showers, but again there aren’t any big descents of particularly dangerous sections that would be more complicated because of it.

Breakaway chances: 1%

Opening day, a lot of contenders and a lot of interest for the pink jersey and roads which are very easy to control any escapee group. A breakaway will simply not succeed here, it’s essentially impossible.

The Favourites

Mathieu van der Poel – Out of the classics campaign and into the Giro d’Italia debut. Alpecin are not a top-tier team, but in this kind of stage they can do wonders as they have a very talented classics-specialist team, who has great riders for positioning and explosive efforts. Van der Poel will want the win and the pink jersey, it’s a hilltop finish that suits him very well and he’s in my opinion the man to beat.

Caleb Ewan – The Australian can, in his best day, climb well. On his worst day, not at all, but this is an ascent rather similar to the Poggio and Ewan has many times ridden incredibly over it and surely that will be the comparison he’ll make. He needs to be fresh towards the sprint, but if he is Ewan will not be easy to beat. 

Biniam Girmay – A great wildcard. Girmay can climb, and he can sprint. Can he turn those abilities into a glorious win tomorrow? It can happen, having not raced since Gent-Wevelgem means we don’t have many indications, however Girmay is a very consistent rider form-wise and he will be one of the main contenders for tomorrow. 

Pello Bilbao – With the sprinting prowess he’s shown over the last month, it’s impossible not to consider the Basque as a top contender for this stage. He won’t suffer on the climb, and Bahrain have the riders to push the pace to the limit. Jan Tratnik is also an option for a late attack, but I reckon Bilbao will want to sprint and honestly he has reasonable chances of succeeding. 

Alejandro Valverde – The veteran, Valverde isn’t as sharp as in his prime years, however if there’s one thing he has it’s experience and in such a finish he is a certainty in the first places. Valverde is great at timing his moves, a sprint is likely and in the uphill gradients it’ll give him good chances of fighting for the stage win.

There are many riders who will enjoy their outsider status so as to have freedom to attack towards the end. It will be very complicated for any rider to escape, however I reckon that’s not impossible. The likes of Richard Carapaz, João Almeida, Simon Yates, Romain Bardet, Attila Valter, Felix Gall and Giulio Ciccone will all be hoping for a climb ridden all-out from the base, as they could have a good opportunity in the end in such scenario.

In a more explosive finish, the likes of Alessandro Covi, Diego Ulissi, Jhonatan Narváez and Natnael Tesfatsion could be strong puncheurs to consider, a finish very well suited to their type of riding ability. These riders above, and specially the likes of Thymen Arensman and Mauro Schmid fit perfectly in the category of a late attack succeeding with a solo move. 

As for those who will enjoy the finish and will hope for a sprint, there is still a list with meaningful names. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Andrea Vendrame, Vincenzo Albanese and Davide Ballerini are all riders that can battle for the stage win if they arrive fresh enough into the final sprint. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐van der Poel, Girmay

⭐⭐Ewan, Bilbao, Valverde, Carapaz, Albanese

⭐Covi, Almeida, Narváez, Valter, Bardet, Arensman, Schmid, Gall, Cort Nielsen, Vendrame

First win of the race, in my opinion will be for Mathieu van der Poel. I argue that it’s a very open finale, but van der Poel is a rider who’s not a calculated rider, and he will cover each and every move in the final kilometer if he has the legs, so I foresee a sprint finale for the pink jersey. The gradients suit him very well, I think he won’t miss on the win which is a big goal.

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Rúben Silva

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