2022 Giro d’Italia – Stage 4 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Mark Cavendish won the third stage of the Giro, the first true bunch sprint of the race in which many seemed blocked at the finale. Quick-Step delivered a standard leadout and Cavendish just had to wrap off the team’s work to return to his winning ways. Arnaud Demare and Fernando Gaviria finished second and third.

Positive: Cavendish with the win.

Negative: Caleb Ewan has a whole leadout but once again was caught completely out of position, not contesting for the win. 

The Route

The Giro arrives in Italy, but not mainland yet as beforehand the peloton will be riding through Sicily. Land of many Italian champions, and land of the most active active volcano in Europe which will be climbed in the fourth stage of the race. 170 kilometers and 3500 meters of climbing, not a brutal day but quite a considerable challenge. 

Early on in the day a strong group can go up the road, from the start to kilometer 55 the riders go from sea level to almost 1000 meters in altitude. There is no real ascent, but a combination of false-flat roads will slowly have the riders go up, and then back down again slowly before the final ascent.

Mount Etna. There are many roads up it, but this year the finale will be in the Rifugio Sapienza. A long ascent, the first 13 kilometers will see the riders gain 400 meters in altitude, but that’s a warm-up for the classified ascent.

From that point onwards the gradients rise up, and the average is of 5.9% for a whole 23.1 kilometers. It’s a long climb, with many switchbacks, and the gradients aren’t overly consistent, with two small flat sections. The final 9 kilometers see the hardest gradients, peaking at 12% around the 9 kilometer to go mark. Much can happen here, although early in the race It may not motivate many to attack the race hard. 

The Weather

The wind won’t be strong throughout the day, but it can be felt on the slopes of the final climb. With wind gusts coming from the east – despite all the switchbacks – it will be a majority headwind throughout the ascent. Not good for those looking to attack, despite the necessary gradients. 

Breakaway chances: 20%

Unlike my initial expectations, I predict the climb will not be attacked unless if there are some moves in the final 3 or 4 kilometers, the wind will be a factor for the riders. There are some men who’ve lost time on purpose to get in the breaks, it’s still early so that’s a very reduced list, however van der Poel won’t keep the lead of the race so there isn’t any team with the responsibility of bringing back a group. 

The Favourites

Richard Carapaz – The third week will be his terrain, however if things kick off with no doubt Carapaz should be willing to find an alliance. Together with Pavel Sivakov, they may look to stirr things up tomorrow on the long ascent. 

Simon Yates – Yates is carrying form, and he’s likely to jump into the pink jersey at the end of the day. Will this mean he’ll race defensively, or perhaps try to let some riders go so as to not have the team working and everyone eyeing him throughout the next few days?

Bahrain – With a rider less, it’s less likely to see them put on the hurt. With Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao and Wout Poels, they have the numbers to put on the pressure in the race, and this is the kind of stage where they can still take advantage of the rivals looking at each other and unsure of how they’re feeling. 

Miguel Ángel López – A climb that suits him, without too steep gradients but long distances. Lopez should have the form, and he does already have time to recover over the likes of Yates for example, so if the feelings are good he may go on the attack.

BORA – Wilco Kelderman is looking quite sharp, and with the support of Emanuel Buchmann and Jai Hindley who will have their freedom too surely, BORA have the names to do some team tactics on the final climb. 

João Almeida – A climb well suited to him. Form is relatively unknown, but Almeida has shown great climbing legs this year and should be in contention for the stage win. 

Romain Bardet – Perhaps a rider willing to take advantage of the motivation he’s bringing into the race? Only on the road will we know, he’s a rider that likes to attack but I think he will only in the right situation. 

Outsiders will come aplenty. This is the first big day for the GC, and all climbers will be testing their legs ahead of the weeks to come, to know what they should ambition. Riders that are expected to fight for the overall classification you have Guillaume Martin, Hugh Carthy, Tobias Foss and Giulio Ciccone who are relatively safe bets to be within the best in the day.

From riders who are unlikely to target it, but can in their best day ride with the best, you find Filippo Zana, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Jan Hirt, Rein Taaramae and Bauke Mollema.

Inbetween, where it can go either ways, you find Lorenzo Fortunato, Domenico Pozzovivo, Alejandro Valverde, Ivan Sosa, Tom Dumoulin and Sam Oomen. All categories have riders who can fight for the stage win, but I would reckon the win will be in the names above. If a breakaway, I can only trust Lennard Kämna for sure. 

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#137 Reto Hollenstein – No-one to protect here, just stay with Giacomo and make sure the sprinters make it safe to the finish. 

#102 Vincenzo Albanese – Save your legs, you’ve done well here last month but there is nothing to gain from trying to get a Top20. Better stages will come, we’ll have some of the others to protect Lorenzo. 

#75 Anthony Perez – Guillaume will be testing himself today, your job will be to stay with him as long as possible in order to keep things safe but also to see at what level you are in comparison with the competition, as you may go for stages later. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Carapaz, S.Yates, MA.López

⭐⭐Kelderman, Bardet, Almeida

⭐Landa, Poels, Buchmann, Sivakov, G.Martin, Ciccone, Carthy

The win for me, will come for Miguel Ángel López. It’s a long ascent, but one with shallower gradients towards the end. Well suited to the Colombian, who will try to kick things off successfully in the Giro. 

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Rúben Silva

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