2022 Paris-Roubaix – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

We are here! The final step in the cobbled classics campaign. Paris-Roubaix is the great climax, and one of the most unique races of the season which will see the peloton go through the iconic cobbled roads of northern France.

The Route

Like it’s been for several years, the route will go through a massive 257.5 kilometers, starting in Compiègne heading north, where the first cobbled sectors will be encountered with just under 100 kilometers of racing, which will make for around 2 hours of racing to settle and establish a breakaway. Also, as it’s been the case for some years, the breakaway should be highly contested, which can make for a furiously fast start. The teams controlling should keep a tight leash on who can go free from the pack or not. And most teams will try to have riders in front for strategical purposes later, specially with the weather conditions that will be taking place.

And this should be a sight most riders recognize very well. Some will be relieved pleased to go through it, some won’t be very happy with it. The Troisville sector, the first of 29 comes with a little over 95 kilometers of racing, it’s 2.2Km long, but the initial combination of sectors last year caused some damage in the peloton quite early on. This is the place where the true race starts, some may say.

Several cobbled sectors will follow, the 4-star ones include Quiévy to Saint-Python (3700 meters, 141Km to go) and Haveluy to Wallers (2500 meters, 101Km to go), this one will come right before the most iconic sector of the race. Everyone who loves cycling knows it, the Trouée d’Arenberg is “only” 2300 meters but is famed with one of the most traditional view in modern cycling. The full sector is in a straight line but is one that demands technical expertize. Line choice is crucial as the cobblestones in it are of an immense brutality. Adding the huge speed the riders will enter the sector it’ll make for maybe the most tense moment of the race, the lead-out to Arenberg sees truly remarcable fights, it starts slightly downhill and turns into slightly uphill, making for a really hard sector to make any acceleration, it’s a case of keeping the power up for the entire run. It comes with 93.5Km to go.

Hornaing to Wandignies is 3700 meters long and is the next 4-star sector with 78Km to go, then there’s Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières which is 2400 meters long and comes with 68.5Km to go. And with 50.5Km to go there’s the Auchy to Bersée sector and it’s 2700 meters in length, which set the riders up for the following sector. Obviously, the Mons-en-Pévèle sector, it’s 3Km long and finishes with 45Km to go, it will be the second 5-star sector of the race and comes in a crucial time where the decisive attacks are to come.

The final combination of sectors where it’s likely to see differences being made is the Camphin-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Abre. They are 4 and 5-star sectors respectively, feature 1800 and 2100 meters in distance and come with 17Km and 14Km to go.

They aren’t the final sectors, but with such a brutal race to that point and a very short distance to the finale, it’s the ideal place to make a move for everyone who has the legs, the Carrefour de l’Abre sector is one of great technical demand, and need of several accelerations, which is something not all riders will be capable of at that point of the race.

There’s still the Willems to Hem sector with 6Km to go, a 3-star sector that’s been recently introduced into the race, but it’s not usual to see gaps being made there, but who knows, with a group it can happen. The final kilometers will be well known, the entrance in Roubaix in flat roads, in case of a group coming into town it’s likely to see some attemps of surprising in it, which will lead to the velodrome, the race’s symbol almost, where a deserving winner will emerge from a brutal race.

The Weather

Almost 20 degrees, fully dry and warm weather for this time of year in the area. A small breeze from the southeast will provide for a small cross/cross-tailwind help throughout the day, will make for higher speeds and more benefits for an early escapee group.

Tactics

This is a chaotic race, expect the unexpected as punctures and crashes will happen and you won’t be able to predict well what will happen. Some things we do know are that early on in the day there should be a decent fight to get in the breakaway, for tactical purposes and for personal ambitions aswell as sometimes riders can thrive off of it. In the breakaway there are no leg-sapping fights for positioning and the rhythm is more consistent, at the end of such a brutal race those efforts will compensate for some of the time spent in the wind, which may not be much if the group is large.

In the peloton, these sectors are very hard to make differences in comparison to the bergs of Flandres. Teams with many cards will and should put on the pressure early on, and here tactics and sense of opportunity will be extremely important. Besides that, hope for some luck with mechanicals and have mental strength and perseverance, the race can change at any minute. 

The Favourites

Mathieu van der Poel – The man to beat? Some will say so, this is bad for him however as with no climbs it will be hard to make decisive gaps. Alpecin have a nice team, but not as strong as the likes of Jumbo and INEOS, I expect to see him having to close some gaps, maybe do some work whilst some rivals will be able to be on the wheel and have a better time.

Jumbo-Visma – Wout van Aert is back, at what level is a question many won’t know. On paper, he’s a perfect rider for this race, and if he’s got the form he’ll be extremely dangerous in whichever scenario he finds himself in. With Christophe Laporte and Mike Teunissen on board, Jumbo not only have depth but also many riders who can sprint which is all in their favour. 

Mads Pedersen & Jasper Stuyven – With his crash in Sarthe, Pedersen may not be at his very best. He’s got the form though, the motivation and has the perfect profile for such a race. He will only hope to not feel the damages from his injuries. Trek is a team with depth, but they usually use it to protect their leaders well. Jasper Stuyven has struggled with illnesses but I reckon he’s got the form this week to be a very important piece. 

Kasper Asgreen – Quick-Step will be a big dilemma, as they are on paper one of the best teams but on the ground they’ve struggled, very much so because of illnesses. They have the pressure on, which is bad for them, however they’ve got quality and experience. Kasper Asgreen seems to be on point to fight for the win, whilst Yves Lampaert, Florian Sénéchal and Zdenek Stybar can all play a role in a win.

INEOS – I think they’re still somewhat underrated despite the results they’ve gotten over the campaign. They’ve just won Amstel and Brabantse Pijl due to their strength in numbers, they have a team fully in-form with a mix of experience and young talent. Dylan van Baarle has it all and is a very strong contender, however with Michal Kwiatkowski, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Turner and Filippo Ganna the British team has the opportunity to do something special, as long as they don’t suffer from mechanicals and crashes.

Furthemore though, the race features many riders who can surprise, this is a race made for that. I think some names which I won’t mention will have a chance, and that is exactly because they aren’t considered favourites and will have a leash from the main contenders. There are others though which I see on the middle ground. From those who can sprint relatively well, I’d put the likes of Matej Mohoric, Anthony Turgis, Greg van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen and Matteo Trentin as very dangerous riders. From those who are indeed sprinters you see Alexander Kristoff, Davide Ballerini and Tim Merlier who are all outsiders.

The riders who should be able to take a win in a sprint are mostly mentioned in the list above though. Mostly, wins from outsiders should come from an elusive solo move, either from a possible breakaway or early attack that manages to succeed. You’ve got those who absolutely need such a move, however they are not explosive and rarely manage to get a gap such as Stefan Kung and Victor Campenaerts. Campenaerts’ teammate Florian Vermeersch is also a strong outsider, and to him I would add Nils Politt, Connor Swift, Rasmus Tiller and Ivan Garcia Cortina as riders who can threaten a podium, and would not be a surprise in the final Top10.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐MVD.Poel, WV.Aert, M.Pedersen

⭐⭐Asgreen, van Baarle, Laporte, Mohoric, Kung

⭐Kristoff, Senechal, Lampaert, Stuyven, Ganna, Kwiatkowski, Sheffield, GV.Avermaet, Teunissen, Politt, Trentin, Tiller, Cortina, Campenaerts, Turgis

My call for the win will be Dylan van Baarle. I look at the riders and I can’t figure one rider who is above everyone else, there isn’t. I see van der Poel being attacked, and if Jumbo doesn’t take over the race I can only see a win coming from a team with depth and INEOS have everything set for them. He’s hit the post many times, tomorrow is for the Dutchman.

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