2022 Tour des Flandres – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It is a holy weekend! The climax of racing in Flandres, the culmination of the Flandrien classics which will see a fierce battle over some of the most iconic climbs in cycling, that each and every year set for some of the best images and most exciting racing of the year. 

The Route

272 kilometers on the menu this year. The distance will make for a brutal race, the Tour des Flandres has always been a race for the riders who are capable of performing on a bike at top level for a large number of hours and this year that capacity will be put to the limit. The start at Antwerpen will then see just a bit over 130 kilometers that are mostly set to be calm, approximately half of the race. However in the second half everything changes, as the Oude Kwaremont will open things up. 

From 137 to 88 kilometers to go there will be a long succession of bergs and cobbled sectors that will thin down the peloton. Big attacks will no happen here, as the main favourites need to save their bullets wisely, however set-up attacks, split attempts and a lot of fatigue buildup may happen here. 

The crucial section of the race starts with the second passage over the Oude Kwaremont. Kwaremont, Paterberg and the Koppen berg come in quick succession and this trio of ascents will not only destroy the peloton, it will also provide opportunities to launch potentially decisive attacks. They come with 54.5, 51 and 44.5 kilometers to go. Not many riders will survive the peloton afterwards, and with a thinned down group decisive attacks can also come after as the chasing power will not be so meaningful. 

Steenbeekdries (39Km to go), Taaienberg (36.5Km to go) and Oude Kruisberg (28Km to go) follow afterwards and provide further launching pads for dangerous attacks. After a small descent the race will enter it’s final sectors. 

For the third and last time, the Oude Kwaremont. A grueling berg with inconsistent gradients, it summits with 16.5Km to go. 

And after a short section, the final berg of the race is always one that may see the differences, the Paterberg. Short but sharp, essentially a one-minute all-out effort after around 6:30h of hard racing where slipstreaming is not a thing. A climb most will know like the back of their hand, it will summit with 13 kilometers to go. 

As every year, the run-up to Oudenaarde then is quite excruciating. Pan-flat after the small descent from the Paterberg, it is a place where attacks can still happen, but whatever happens depends on what will happen over the ascents.

The Weather

Very cold temperatures in the morning, but it will warm up during the day. The thermometer won’t go past 10 degrees. There will be a slight breeze from the northwest, likely not very impactful but in a race like this every detail matters. A slight cross-headwind will be felt on the run-up to Oudenaarde, which can benefit chasing groups and act against a solo rider. 

Tactics 

Wout van Aert is gone from the race just like that. I had imagined Jumbo would take control, attack and play with their team power as they have in the last few classics but that won’t happen as they’ve lost that numerical superiority. The same can be said for Van der Poel, his biggest ally would be van Aert as they can both beat each other in a sprint and they are better than the rest of the specialists in a sprint essentially, meaning the Dutch rider will be specifically targeted if he finds himself in a group in the finale like Dwars door Vlaanderen. 

Things have opened quite a lot. The weather will be harsh on many, and the race is slightly longer this year, meaning endurance will be even more crucial. Many have had their preparations hampered by sickness, both directly and indirectly and that will be exposed here. It’s an edition of Flandres that with this 1 rider out, has to me found itself so much more open, with several scenarios that can lead to a win. 

The Favourites 

Mathieu van der Poel – Has he got enough form to perform at his best? Question is not fully known, but signs have been very good. Third in Sanremo, a stage win in Coppi e Bartali and the win in Dwars door Vlaanderen. Van der Poel’s run-up to the race may have been perfect as he’s avoided the flurry of illnesses that have been devastating the peloton, and hasn’t been winning in the big stage which puts some pressure off him. After last year’s second place, he’ll be looking for vengeance. 

Christophe Laporte & Tiesj Benoot – Their big leader for the day is out of the race. Neither Laporte or Benoot were likely ready for the role they’ll have as co-leader, but together they have runner-up spots at E3 Saxo Bank Classic, Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen. Will they turn this consistency into a career-changing win? Will they crack under pressure? Everything can happen, Jumbo is still a very strong collective, but they will have to be racing more conservatively as they have lost the collective dominance. 

Kasper Asgreen – Last year’s winner. Quick-Step have been severly hampered by diseases, but the trio of Yves Lampaert, Zdenek Stybar and Florian Sénéchal are still coming, albeit far from their collective best. Asgreen has so far been the individual leader of the team in the cobbles, and here it’ll happen once again. Cold and long kilometers will suit him though, and he can repeat his title. 

Mads Pedersen & Jasper Stuyven – Pedersen will enjoy the conditions present on the day. He has had a very good build-up for the race, but this week’s Dwars door Vlaanderen performance will have put some tension on Trek’s shoulders as he struggled. Jasper Stuyven has been ill and not in his best form aswell, so things are far from perfect for Trek but they have an experienced and strong team, and together they may still be able to take hold of the race in the right conditions. 

INEOS – Likely the biggest wildcards for the race. The team is stacked with riders who you don’t really know how they’ll do. Tom Pidcock usually struggles with the distance and has had a start to the season hampered by stomach issues, but on Dwars door Vlaanderen he’s shown great legs which are a great sign. Dylan van Baarle has been relatively more quiet this spring, but if he has the legs of last year which have earned him several world-class results, he may have total freedom and never again be seen as he’s not talked of as a win candidate. In Jhonatan Narváez and Ben Turner the team has two more puncheurs who have been impressing in the cobbles, and give the British teams more cards to play with in the final hours of racing. 

With Wout van Aert out of the race last-minute due to a Covid-19 infection, it is fair to say the race has opened up quite a bit, as the Jumbo machine and the Belgian champion had been rather dominant in the cobbles so far. Room will be made for more outsiders, the cold weather and very long distance can make it a day for someone unexpected who thrives in such harsh conditions. There are some riders who ordinarily love rain, although this isn’t the same they’ll surely enjoy the cold such as Tadej Pogacar who will be leading UAE alongside Matteo Trentin, Stefan Kung who’s been having a very strong and consistent classics season so far, and Alexander Kristoff who’s taken the title In 2015. From the Nordic countries, something can be expected of Rasmus Tiller aswell who comes as a big wildcard, and Tobias Johannessen who lacks the experience but definitely has the form and legs to contest for a Top10. 

Then on the other side you’ve got experience. Flandriens Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen have not had a good spring so far, but they have the knowhow and have these roads memorized like the back of their hands which will be valuable knowledge. In the Belgium side, Lotto’s Victor Campenaerts and Tim Wellens will be outsiders aswell for the race, very well suited for solo moves. 

There’s Matej Mohoric and Anthony Turgis, first and second in Milano-Sanremo. They will both be candidates for the podium, or more. Endurance is important and they thrive, Turgis is a specialist, and whilst Mohoric is not as much, he’s shown to have the legs to win such a race in these conditions. Michael Matthews, Soren Kragh Andersen, Valentin Madouas, Michael Valgren, Nils Politt and Movistar duo Alex Aranburu and Ivan Cortina will be eyeing strong results, and former winner Alberto Bettiol can also pull off a surprise although he’s had far from a good run-up. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐van der Poel, Asgreen, Laporte 

⭐⭐Benoot, M.Pedersen, Mohoric, Pogacar 

⭐Turgis, van Baarle, Stuyven, Kristoff, GV.Avermaet, Kung, Pidcock, Narvaez, Trentin, Campenaerts, Matthews, Tiller, Madouas, Sénéchal, SK.Andersen

My call for the win, Matej Mohoric. He’s said at Milano-Sanremo that he could still improve on his form, and I think there has always been a clear target to the cobbled classics. A lightning doesn’t frequently strike the same place twice, but his endurance, form and preparation for the race has looked ideal, and he can benefit from a more open race that I expect to see this Sunday. 

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