2022 Volta a Catalunya – Stage 1 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The Route

The opening stage of the Volta a Catalunya sees a change as, instead of several past editions, it will not see a loop around Calella. A day for the sprinters is expected in Sant Feliu de Guíxols, although it may be disturbed by a few hills that can cause trouble for the fast men.

The stage sees an uphill start. With no race leader and a race lead on grab – besides a stage win – it may see a strong group go up the road, that can be quite hard to capture later on. However, the rest of the day is mostly flat, except for a 5Km at 5.3% climb that summits with 26 kilometers to go.

The final ascent in the coastal town is also slightly uphill, with the gradients averaging 3% which may reduce the amount of riders capable of taking a stage win on this opening day. The run-up to the finish is very technical and explosive, so it may see a surprising winner.

The Weather

Strong wind from the east. Some of the stage will see some hills and will be covered, however it will be a complicated day for everyone as the GC riders will be looking to stay safe in the possible crosswind action, and the sprinters have to be on high alert the whole day if they want a chance to contest the stage. It is also entirely possible that there will be wet roads in some points, as rain has been falling in the area.

Breakaway chances: 30%

I think there will be several teams with interests in the sprint that won’t allow a strong group to go up the road. With that said, the uphill start and windy nature of the stage – combined with some frequent rolling hills – may see someone sneak off the front and then be able to profit from the fatigue in the peloton.

The Favourites

Michael Matthews & Kaden Groves – Matthews has shown great form in Sanremo. He’s lost his sprinter edge in the last few years, however the hilly finale is indeed suited to him and the competition isn’t big. Kaden Groves will have better opportunities, but he’s also a big candidate for the stage, he’s proving a brilliant sprinter lately.

Sonny Colbrelli & Phil Bauhaus – Another weird mix. On paper, Sonny Colbrelli would be the card for this type of finale, however he’s fell ill which has seen him absent of Milano-Sanremo. On the other side you have Phil Bauhaus who’s just won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico. Which one will go for the win?

Juan Sebastián Molano – Usually a sprinter who likes uphill finishes. The team has many GC ambitions, however he will surely be able to find space to go for the win.

Hugo Hofstetter – He’s finished on the podium of Le Samyn, Grote Prijs, Profronde van Drenthe and the Bredene Koksijde Classic these past few weeks. Hofstetter has been very consistent, and the uphill finale is good for his attributes.

David Dekker – More of a pure sprinter, Dekker has struggled to find consistency after his breakthrough UAE Tour last year, however with a reduced field and no major GC contender in the lineup Jumbo may be able to bring out the best of him.

Some more riders are expected to be there towards the finale.  The likes of Manuel Peñalver, Francisco Galván, Martin Laas and Tom Devriendt may be there in the finale, although truth be said this is a very modest list of names for a World Tour race. Puncheurs such as Andrea Bagioli, Simon Clarke, Daryl Impey, Quentin Pacher, Michal Kwiatkowski and Sergio Higuita may also feature on the action tomorrow.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#37 Marc Soler – Marc, you and João will be leading the team this week and it will be a priority to protect you. We have high hopes that you can thrive in the mountains, so we’ll be having your back here, doing the work to make sure you’re well positioned throughout the day. You just have to stay safe, your time will come later.

#7 Luke Plapp – We have a big team here Luke so you’ll have to be on support role. Ideally, we want you for later in the mountains as we believe you can perform, but we have some experienced guys who offer more guarantees and it’s your job to make sure everyone stays safe. Not yours to burn unnecessary energy, but if you see you must don’t be shy of hitting the win, specially in the final kilometers.

#165 Matthew Holmes – We have a team to go for breakaways Matt so tomorrow is indeed one to do that. The start is hard, ideally we would have more than one guy in front and from there on you can ambition and fight for the KOM jersey. The stage won’t be easy, however not impossible, don’t go in too hard at any point as you need a group all the way to the line if you want to hold off the peloton. The uphill drag to the line isn’t easy, it suits your explosiveness, let’s see what we can pull out of this first day.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Matthews, Molano, Hofstetter

⭐⭐Bauhaus, Groves, Colbrelli, Dekker

⭐Galván, Bagioli, De Gendt, Godon, Peters, Pacher, Armirail, Wurtz, S.Clarke

I’m going with Hugo Hofstetter for the first stage win and race lead. Both Bahrain and BikeExchange have two cards, I don’t know which one they’ll go with, I’m not sure how exactly the teams will function, but a sprint is highly likely in the end. Hofstetter is carrying great form, and he’s missing the classics as he ambitions high here, the finale is perfect for him I reckon.

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