2022 Volta a Catalunya – Stage 6 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Although the expected bunch sprint came, it was quite an eventful day towards the end. With intermediate sprint seconds on hand, João Almeida took a second and  has jumped onto the lead of the race. Several attacks came in the final kilometers as the sprinter teams had little firepower to control the race, still it came down to a sprint. Ethan Vernon pushed a rider inside the final kilometer, but nevertheless escaped relegation to take his first pro win in the chaotic final sprint, beating Phil Bauhaus and Dorian Godon. 

Positive: Vernon taking a surprise stage win, and Almeida jumping into the race lead. 

Negative: Groves missing positioning for a possible second stage win.  

The Route 

The sixth stage of the Volta a Catalunya will have it’s start and finish in the outskirts of Tarragona, where it is set to see a stage with a familiar format in the race, as the riders will be doing a loop around the coastal hills, in a day that is paper designed for breakaway success. 

The Coll de les Llebres Mussara (10.5Km at 6%) will see, if they aren’t yet made, the first differences in the day. It’s a hilly day, and this is a proper climb where those looking to escape have the road to be able to do so. How the stage will be decided is very open, a sprint is possible if there are some teams fully focused in controlling the group. If a break succeeds, it can be from a sprint, but also from an early attack still in the hills.  

There are 2800 meters of climbing, well distributed throughout the day. The final hilltop comes with 29 kilometers from the finish, still relatively far, and it is 2.9 kilometers long at 5.3% average gradient. From there on the race tilts down until reaching the coast in Cambrils. 

The finale will be relatively simple in the last kilometers, however if a bunch sprint is expected in these roads, it can get significantly dangerous. The entry in the town is fast, and inside it there will be several roundabouts to tackle, aswell as some tight corners. The gradients however should favour the purists if they make it through. 

The Weather

A rainy day with northeastern wind. A tough stage lies ahead, the rain will make the race very tense all day long with several descents on the course, and the extremely urban finale with several roundabouts will make it even worst. Unfortunately, I predict many crashes, with some GC favourites likely to be included. 

Breakaway chances: 90% 

There is essentially no chance of seeing a sprinter win this stage from a bunch sprint. Even if by miracle the peloton would arrive at the end, there would be splits with the technical and wet finale. But this won’t happen likely, both Matthews and Colbrelli are out of the race, there are no sprinters who can climb well left in the race, but there are plenty of strong climbers who will attack the day in order to try and get a win, rouleurs too. 

The rain would make all kinds of chasing very hard to succeed aswell, there just isn’t anything that points away from a breakaway win. 

The Favourites 

Time for a little breakaway bingo. This day is very likely to be for an escapee. The profile favours early attacks in the break, as I think it’s likely to see a big group, one where collaboration can easily fail go up the road. It will be difficult for anyone to organize a chase where everyone can be happy. Many kinds of riders may be up for this stage, as the climbs aren’t overly hard and allow lots of non-wildcards to have a chance. 

There is also the threat of GC riders entering the head of the race, as they recognize their chances of taking time on the overall, and with the gaps not being that big, that may be quite dangerous and turn the race around. Still, with no specific order, here are some riders who I feel have a chance of being in front and taking a win tomorrow: 

Bahrain – Teuns, Buitrago 

Quick-Step – Bagioli 

Jumbo – Dennis 

AG2R – Godon, Cherel 

Groupama – Valter, Badilatti, Molard, Pacher, Armirail 

Israel – Clarke, Impey, Wurtz, Boivin 

Trek – Tolhoek, Lopez, Ghebreigzhabier, Skjelmose 

Astana – Conti, Velasco 

Intermarche – Bakelants, Petilli 

Cofidis – Je. Herrada 

EF – Carthy, Eiking, Powless 

BikeExchange – Howson, Juul-Jensen 

DSM – Donovan 

Kern Pharma – Galván, Adria 

Uno-X – Charmig 

Caja Rural – Prades  

Yes, a big list. Very disperse and with several types of riders, yet as I said, there are many scenarios in which this stage can be decided and you can’t single out many. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#226 Carlos Canal – Carlos, it’ll be a tough day but it is one for the break so I expect you to try something at the start. It’s not exactly your cup of tea, but we can do something, get in the break early on, hopefully have quite a few men in there and to try to play with our numbers. 

#225 Unai Quadrado – Unai, same thing, except you would on paper be more on the helping side of things, if you do find yourself in front I expect you to attack very early and try to get a teammate to save himself, If possible of course. 

#65 Mikael Cherel – It’s not a bad day Mikael. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen you well in action, but a rainy day with technical descents is just to your taste. Try to conserve energy early on, ideally we’d attack at the base of the first climb, and have more than one rider in front. The strategy for you would be to eye the descents. Either make a move from early on, or try to resist the climbs and make a mad dash the final descent, both are options and the best one depends on group size. The bigger, the earlier you attack. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Godon, Valter, S.Clarke, Powless 

⭐⭐Bagioli, Pacher, Armirail, Howson 

⭐Dennis, Impey, Wurtz, Boivin, Tolhoek, Skjelmose, Conti, Bakelants, Eiking, Juul-Jensen, Donovan, Galvan, Charmig, Prades 

 It will be a roulette. Some teams have numbers, I think the stage will have a big influence of the weather, and some riders will enjoy the rain whilst others will hate it. If it’s rainy, go nordic, I’ll hint Mads Wurtz as a possible winner. 

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Rúben Silva

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