2022 Volta a Catalunya – Stage 7 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Stage six saw one of the most impressive GC raids in modern cycling. Sergio Higuita and Richard Carapaz were active early in the stage, as the first climb of the day saw a flurry of attacks that saw the GC contenders on the attack. The duo made a move with over 130 kilometers to go, grew their gap and held it over the reduced bunch that chased them throughout the day. Carapaz took the win, and Higuita jumped to the lead as they sit now first and second overall. Kaden Groves finished third in the peloton, 48 seconds behind. 

Positive: Carapaz and Higuita taking incredible success with a bold move. Both have taken great benefits from today, and will likely battle for the overall win tomorrow. 

Negative: UAE weren’t fully organized, but also had very little help from other teams to control the race. 

The Route

The final day, the traditional circuit in Barcelona. Regularly, a day for a breakaway, however many scenarios can decide such a day. There are only 140 kilometers to be ridden, as the riders leave Barcelona and face some rolling roads where the breakaway will be established. 

The race is to be decided in the final circuit though. Six laps over the Alto de Montjuic, it’s a tough circuit, which usually benefits early attackers as there is almost no flat within it’s 8 kilometers. The descent off the Montjuic is very fast and allows riders to take a rest after every ascent. 

Ascent which is 2.4 kilometers at 4.7%, however the gradient is very misleading as it includes a flat section. The true hilltop is quite explosive, it has 900 meters at 10% which is enough to create damage in the peloton, and also splits that may prove crucial for the overall classification. In the final lap, it will come only 5 kilometers away from the summit, all of them downhill except for a small uphill pitch next to the city’s Olympic stadium, 2 kilometers away from the finish. 

The Weather

There will be no rain throughout the stage which will come as a relief for the riders, although that doesn’t mean the roads will be fully dry. There will also be moderate wind from the northeast. Covered throughout most of the stage, within the final circuit it will provide a tailwind for the ascent to the Montjuic though. 

Breakaway chances: 60% 

BORA will not have a team to control the race, but they also won’t have that interest. The less bonus seconds there are for the rivals the better, so it’s the responsibility of INEOS (3 riders only) and UAE to keep things under control if they want. 

This is a day very well suited to a breakaway, the final circuit favours all-out efforts on all ascents, as the riders have a technical and fast descent everytime, and to actually put on a chase is very complicated. 

The Favourites 

INEOS – Richard Carapaz has put in the effort today and it’s done him good for his GC ambitions, he’s got a relatively safe podium spot. If he wants the win though he needs to go on the attack again. Carlos Rodriguez is also a card to go for the stage, he’s got the legs and the freedom. 

Sergio Higuita – He will be on the defensive on a complicated day to manage. BORA don’t have much team, but Higuita’s raid means only Carapaz is within touching distance so he has a clear rider he has to focus on. The stage isn’t his priority that’s certain, however it is indeed a suiting day for him. 

UAE – With Marc Soler and George Bennett as possible stage contenders of help if they get in a breakaway, and Juan Ayuso and João Almeida in the GC fight, UAE have good cards to play tomorrow. They had the lead today, but in the situation they were at it was very hard to manage. They’ve decided to keep both in contention, and tomorrow they must attack hard to give a justification for today’s savings of Ayuso. 

Nairo Quintana – Not the most suiting stage, however Quintana has looked very sharp this week. He’ll want to be in the podium, and he must attack for it. 

Wout Poels – Bahrain have looked good today. Poels is in form and he’s a rider who likes the short explosive climbs. He can definitely take advantage today, specially as he won’t be as covered as some of the other names around him. 

Ben O’Connor, Tobias Johannessen and Giulio Ciccone are also GC outsiders who may stay in the peloton and have the legs to attack in the peloton later on, take advantage of their slight (in Ciccone’s case not so slight) freedom to get a sneaky stage win. 

As for riders who may succeed in a breakaway, you find the likes of Javier Romo, Jan Bakelants, Quentin Pacher, Jesús Herrada, Hugh Carthy, Damien Howson, Attila Valter, Simon Clarke, Rohan Dennis, Andrea Bagioli, Bruno Armirail and Dorian Godon as some of the main contenders. 

If the stage does fall for a breakaway, it can be decided between a wide variety of riders. The climbs aren’t long, so puncheurs and some rouleurs may have the opportunity to grab the win, not just those who are climbing experts. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#167 Sylvain Moniquet – You’re the only rider left, so whatever you do you’ll have a car behind. You have a free card, but I encourage you to go for the breakaway, it’s the way you can go for the stage win. Eye the uphill sections early in the day, and don’t be shy of going hard early In the final circuit, gaps will be made early and you can’t be on the backfoot if you want to win. 

#35 Juan Ayuso – Juan, strategy has been rather confusing until now. It’s good to have numbers, but we have to use them to our advantage. We’re not on the defensive anymore, so on this stage we can and must attack. We no longer have to work, you’re racing at home and your form is on spot so I expect you to be thriving. You and João must attack the final circuit from early on, taking advantage of the rolling sections as uphill you will be followed. George and Marc can be dangerous weapons to set you up, BORA won’t be able to match you two so you can do some damage. 

#4 Carlos Rodríguez – We’re down to three guys Carlos so we must be conservative. Jonathan will protect you two, Richard will likely wait for the final lap as the gaps are small, but you have to trigger attacks early on. 1:52 is too big of a gap, but you can put some pressure on the group, maybe put Higuita under difficulty if he feels the fatigue, let’s see how it goes. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Pacher, Bagioli, S.Clarke ⭐⭐Ayuso, Poels, Johannessen, Dennis ⭐Carapaz, Rodríguez, Higuita, Almeida, G.Bennett, Quintana, Romo, Armirail, Valter, Howson, Carthy 

Complicated guess, it’s a very open stage. A breakaway may very well take it, but there are many GC interests. I’ll go for a wildcard, Wout Poels, who has the legs and will likely be able to escape the clutches of the riders who are directly covering each other for the win and podium fight. Higuita will secure the GC.

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Rúben Silva

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