Vuelta a Andalucía 2022 – Stage 1 Preview
By @EchelonsHub
The Route
The opening stage of the Vuelta a Andalucia takes the riders through their longest day as they’ll hit the 200 kilometer mark in a day with around 3400 meters of climbing. A rough climb early on is set to make things interesting, with 14.5Km at 5.5% average gradient at the Puerto de El Boyar right at the start, followed by very rugged terrain until the halfway point of the stage essentially.
If a breakaway doesn’t look certain to win up to this point, the stage is set to be decided at the final hilltop finish.
Before the reach the town of Iznájar they will go through a hilly section, with the Alto de Parrilla summiting with just 12.5Km to go, but with shallow gradients as you can see above. Besides a small hilltop at the middle of it, a fast and relatively technical descent will lead straight into the bottom of the final climb.
It’s very short, a sharp effort into the town center, the stage is likely to finish in a sprint between a reduced peloton where the GC riders will be eyeing bonifications. 
The Weather
Mild temperatures with a slight breeze from the northeast which should affect the riding in any way tomorrow.
Breakaway Chances: 20%
With no race leader and no apparent favourite it’s definitely possible. Several teams will be looking to infiltrate riders in the breakaway and the start of the stage presents a big challenge, the opportunity is certainly there for riders to take advantage of.
The Favourites
Michael Woods – He’ll be a main favourite for most stages, will he be here though? Probably not, the climb will be too explosive for him perhaps, he’ll have better stages for him, I reckon here Simon Clarke has better chances to perform.
Mikkel Honoré – Quick-Step can win anywhere, they should have positioning dialed and Mikel Honoré as the likely leader. A puncheur by excellence, has a great opportunity tomorrow.
Benoit Cosnefroy – Another pure puncheur, this is the most suited stage to him, he will want to grab it.
Biniam Ghirmay – Perhaps not the most suited race of Biniam, but he will have a stage suited to his characteristics if Intermarché finds alliances to control the day. That won’t be tomorrow though, still he has impressed with his early-season form, he can definitely climb so maybe it won’t be too hard for him.
Gonzalo Serrano – Winner here last time, it’s a perfect finale for him the question lies if he can be positioned properly by Movistar. If yes, he has a chance to repeat his feat.
Other puncheurs like Alessandro Covi, Jhonatan Narvaez, Dion Smith or Zdenek Stybar could for example be favourites for such a stage, whilst climbers like Alexey Lutsenko or Wout Poels could also have the explosivity needed to take home such a finale. The run-up to the climb will be very fast, there will be splits so team support is absolutely crucial for positioning before the final descent, there can definitely be damage done for those who fail the basics.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐Cosnefroy, Honoré, Serrano ⭐⭐Lutsenko, Woods, Ghirmay, S.Clarke, Covi ⭐Poels, Narvaez, Vansevenant, S.Yates, Smith, GV.Avermaet, Haig, Kelderman, MA.Lopez
Many contenders, and I think the run-up to the climb itself will decide the stage as uphill many will be matched. Whoever manages to spend the less at the bottom will have that final kick at the end, Quick-Step do this for a living, so I expect Mikkel Honoré to keep the Danish flag flying high.
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