2022 Dwars door Vlaanderen-A travers la Flandre – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It’s the final preparation race before the Tour des Flandres. Dwars door Vlaanderen has been a race often used by those eyeing the second and third monument of the season, and this year is no exception as it not only brings in that group, but also a group of sprinters who will be eyeing a possible victory.

The Route

Dwars door Vlaanderen is nowadays one of the “easier” cobbled classics in the spring campaign, and also at World Tour level. It is sure to bring in a luxury startlist with a wide variety of riders, some preparing for the Tour des Flandres this weekend and others putting their pin on this exact day. With 183 kilometers it comes far from the distance of the big classics, and the bergs and mostly paved, with a few cobbled sectors positioned towards the end which will see a very open race but one that may see a sprint towards the end.  

The last 120 kilometers will see the entry in the bergs. They won’t be overly hard, mostly climbs that can put on the hurt in some but mostly just that, possible to open up some attacks early on. With 70 and 63 kilometers to go the peloton face the Berg ten Houte and Kanarieberg, which should be the hardest combination of ascents in the day and has to be used to create damage in the peloton. 

From there on, there will be a few bergs and cobbled sectors, spread throughout the final 60 kilometers. The final cobbled sectors come with 21.5Km (Nokereberg) and 10Km to go (Herlegemstraat). They will not be selective sectors, however attacks can come at any time specially right after the sectors as many domestiques will not have the legs to close down the moves right away. 

The final 8 kilometers will mostly be flat. It’s not a long run-up to the line so to reel attacks in won’t be easy, however it’s possible. The final straight is short, 250 meters long so if it does come down to a sprint positioning will be crucial going into it. 

The Weather

Cold temperatures, a bit more classic weather for the Flandrien classics. There will be a breeze from the northeast throughout the afternoon. It shouldn’t make a big difference in the bergs as the direction changes are constant. After the main climbing section of the race and into Waregem the riders will face some crosswind, and in the final kilometers a small tailwind which may help attackers. 

Tactics 

Ordinarily, this would be a race very similar to Gent-Wevelgem but without the major endurance test. It’s a race that honestly, suits the sprinters that can resist the climbs. If there are at least two or three teams with interests in a sprint working after the bergs, there can be a collaboration that will see the race end – or at least into the final kilometers – as a bunch sprint. 

But then, that doesn’t take into consideration the riders present. Although some of the big classics riders are missing, you have the likes of Van der Poel and Pogacar who in my opinion will have nothing to loose, will have to make their differences in the climbs, and are riders that are generally generous in their workload in classics. I think harsh attack will come in the ascents, and if they are to be brought back it will be extremely hard as I foresee the possibility of good collaboration with other riders who have the explosivity needed to be in front. 

Classics Specialists 

There will be attacks, that’s not a debate but rather a fact. How early will the important attacks start is anyone’s guess, but I’d reckon the Kanarieberg (64Km to go) and the Knokteberg (52 Km to go) are the most likely places. Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar I have no doubt they’ll attacks and likely be early instigators, and it is likely coming early as they not only have to create gaps on the hardest climbs, but also do it early enough that they can take advantage of the sprinters’ difficulties to create a big gap, instead of waiting for the final sectors where they’ll have very little time to gain time before having an organized peloton chasing them. The riders I expect to see climb the best alongside them should be Pedersen (mentioned below), Soren Kragh Andersen, Tiesj Benoot and Valentin Madouas, riders who have interest in a reduced group where they’ll all have better chances of taking a win. 

The likes of Quick-Step’s Yves Lampaert and Zdenek Stybar and BORA’s Nils Politt are riders who will have interest in a sprint but can cover moves. Although they are to be expected on the move, others have sprinters alongside in their team who can profit from the lack of pressure like INEOS who on the specialist’s side have Dylan van Baarle, Tom Pidcock and Ben Turner and Lotto who have Victor Campenaerts and Florian Vermeersch. 

Then a wide list of outsiders emerges with a different set of attributes which can be used for success. I would include in there AG2R duo Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen who’ve been having a hard time this month, Dries de Bondt, Alberto Bettiol and Michael Valgren of EF Education, Stefan Kung, Sep Vanmarcke and TotalEnergies duo Anthony Turgis and Dries van Gestel. 

Can the sprinters take hold of the race? 

There will be some riders eyeing a sprint, and they’ll have teams backing them up which can put on an organized a chase. If enough teams get to work and collaboration isn’t perfect in a leading group, a bunch sprint finish becomes likely. With the likes of Mads Pedersen – who can climb with the best here for sure, Fabio Jakobsen, Jasper Philipsen, Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen and Alexander Kristoff, it is certain that there will be interest from some teams to bring everything back. 

Some teams, like Quick-Step and Alpecin have riders who can be in front, but whilst van der Poel will likely be on the attack, Quick-Step’s strength in numbers can act as a deorganizing force, not allowing attacks to thrive and for collaboration to stall. There are more sprinters who can be eyeing a strong result, who can also benefit behind from having riders in front. The likes of Movistar’s Alex Aranburu and Ivan Cortina, INEOS’ Elia Viviani, Jumbo’s Olav Kooij, Lotto’s Arnaud de Lie, Cofidis’ Bryan Coquard, Arkéa’s Amaury Capiot and Uno-X’s Kristoffer Halvorsen can all become allies in potential chasing groups. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#106 Lukas Postlberger – We have to protect Sam here. Today, no breakaways, no risky moves, be objective and conservative. Sam isn’t in his best form, but Nils hasn’t got it too and so we have to seek alliances with other sprinter teams, and make sure he’s able to go over the hills. Positioning at the bottom of the climbs is crucial and you’ll be on that support role, stay with him the entire final couple hours, and make sure there’s never a lull in the pace in the group he’s at. 

#12 Alexys Brunel – It’s attacking day eh Alexys! We’ve got Tadej and Matteo here and they will have to attack to get themselves in winning position. In this form you can’t explode a peloton, but you can definitely put some of the sprinters in serious trouble. Your job is to make it move early, get some of the guys in your wheel, push hard on a climb and keep the pace stable. The more draining and longer the efforts are, the more easily Tadej will get a gap and sustain it when he attacks (or counter-attacks) in the later section of the bergs. 

#36 Bob Jungels – We have struggled so far Bob, things haven’t been going well. Greg and Oli will be there, and hopefully be able to follow some of the biggest attacks. You, Stan and both of them have to take turns attacking throughout the hilly section. Antecipate attacks, and try to be in offensive moves that can be decisive, that’s how we have to try and win this race, or at least take a strong result. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Van der Poel, M.Pedersen 

⭐⭐Trentin, Pogacar, SK.Andersen, Philipsen, Kristoff 

⭐Van Baarle, Pidcock, Stybar, Lampaert, Jakobsen, GV.Avermaet, Benoot, De Bondt, Campenaerts, Vermeersch, Valgren, Kung, Madouas, Turgis, Kooij, Viviani, De Lie, Coquard, Groenewegen, Aranburu, Cortina 

The balance between sprinters and attackers will be quite interesting. The dynamics will be very similar to Gent-Wevelgem, where it is certain that at some point there will be dangerous riders going up the road, the question is can they succeed and I reckon that here the chances are bigger. I am going with Mads Pedersen for the win, not exactly just because of his sprint, but because I think he’s capable of going over the climbs and if some sort of collaboration takes place he is not actually frequently attacked. He’s yet to take a big win in the classics this year, and it’s time for it. 

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