Giro d’Italia 2015 – Stage 8 Preview
By David Hunter
Fiuggi – Campitello Matese 186km
It’s the weekend, so that means we head to the mountains. The riders are faced with the first proper mountaintop finish. This is going to be a real test.
It’s another day of very little flat road, although we do only have two categorised climbs:-
Forca d’Acero – 26km at 5%.
Campitello Matese – 13km at 6.9%.
The opening climb is early in the race, so it’s really all about the final climb. It does have a nice and steady gradient, which a lot of riders favour. It looks like another stage where Astana will try and do a lot of damage.
The Astana squad is incredibly strong and they are all in form. Aside from Aru, they have Landa, Cataldo, Rosa, Sanchez, Kangert, Zeits, Malacarne and Tiralongo. There seems little doubt that they will win the team classification. The squad is perfect for Aru and seems to suit his attacking ambitions. He has already shown himself capable of winning mountaintop finishes, in 2014, but he now seems to be riding at a new level.
In 2014, he was allowed freedom as he wasn’t a threat for the overall title. This made it a little easier to get away and win. Winning from the GC group is much more difficult, but he seems ready to do so. Also in his favour is his sprint. He is certainly the fastest sprinter, out of the top 3 riders. Astana and Aru will be very confident about this stage.
Richie Porte is still looking good. He has easily responded to the Aru attacks and is looking, every inch, a potential winner of the race. His team aren’t looking quite as strong as Astana, but he should be able to rely upon Konig, Nieve and Siutsou for most of the climb. Porte did have a little attack, the other day, but it was easily marked. This climb is much more of a challenge and we could see cracks starting to develop. The forecast is for rain, this should help Richie, as he’s had some bad days in the baking sun.
Movistar arrived at the Giro with three options: Intxausti, Izagirre and Fernandez. Strangely enough, Visconti is now their GC man. Back in 2013, he won two stages of the race, a massive highlight of his career. It would be a massive surprise if he actually could threaten a spot in the top 10, but he’ll give it a go.
AG2R are still trying to recover from the lose of Pozzovivo. Breakaways look like their only chance of success and it’s about time, Carlos Betancur, stepped up to the plate. Not the dinner plate!
Despite not having a hugely talented GC squad, BMC, have been very consistent so far. Both Atapuma and Caruso are looking strong and flying under the radar. Caruso left Cannondale, to join a team where he could ride for GC and he’s really proving himself. He has every chance of finishing the race in the top 5. That would be some achievement for him.
The other quiet man of the race is Yuri Trofimov. He was strong in Romandie, riding for Spilak and Zakarin, and looks to have maintained that form. He finished 8th in Abetone, his best ever result in a grand tour. He is hitting form at exacly the right time and is another who might start to look towards the top 5. Katusha have had a great season and it looks likely to continue here.
Of course, there are many other GC riders capable of challenging here: Geniez, Van den Broeck, Uran, Cunego, Chaves, Hesjedal, Formolo and Kruijswijk. However, it really would take something special for them to steal the stage.
As in ever mountain stage, a breakaway has a chance of success. There are a huge list of talented climbers, way down on GC. They will all be looking towards this day and will hope the GC riders are happy for the break to stick.
It’s impossible to conceive that a Bardiani rider won’t be in the break. Zardini seems set to challenge for the KOM jersey, so he needs to make the break, with plenty of points on offer for the final climb. Pellizotti has looked very strong but has suffered from cramps. This won’t stop the old man. He’s hard as nails! He was a regular in the 2014 breakaways, after dropping out of GC contention, and I have a feeling we’ll see a lot of him this year.
And what about Alberto? He got through today but at what cost? It shows you what an amazing rider/man he is, as we are not writing him off! It is possible for him to continue to contend, but it’s going to be very painful. His legs are still good but can he endure the pain for another stage? He knows that if he can limit his loses, there isn’t another GC stage until the ITT. That gives him a week to heal. All the cycling world will be willing him to do well, the race needs him.
Tiredness is also going to be an issue. The whole peloton were not amused at having to ride for 7 and a half hours, today. After a demanding first week, there are plenty of tired legs.
Prediction Time
This is going to be hard to control, as all the teams will be happy to let the break go, except Astana. I doubt even they will work all day, to ensure a stage win for Aru. He is the big favourite and he has to attack, to try and “kill off” Contador. The Spaniard, is a wounded beast and the Italian will go for the kill. In the background, Richie Porte, could well benefit. I don’t think Aru can drop him(yet), so he should sit on and let the Italian do all the work. Porte has the TT to look forward to, where he should take considerable time on Aru.
With 21 teams wanting a breakaway success, I think we’ll get one. There is a very long list of contenders: Betancur, Pellizotti, Bongiorno, Pirazzi, Zardini, Moinard, Samoilau, Szmyd, Reichenbach, Niemiec, Vervaeke, Fernandez, Intxausti, Weening, Monsalve, Finetto, Acevedo, Villella and Zakarin. To win a mountaintop finish, you have to be a great climber, there are plenty in this list.
This is going to be a very hard break to get into and the final climb will be testing. Bardiani are looking ready to strike and I pick Stefano Pirazzi as the stage winner.
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