Abu Dhabi Tour 2017 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
Baynounah Educational Complex – Madinat Zayed 190km
The opening stage has danger written all over it, as they spent the whole day in the desert. There is a big chance of echelons and that could ruin the GC chances of a number of riders.
As you would expect, there is nothing to worry the riders in terms of the profile. In the Dubai Tour, we saw riders going in the morning break, trying to take bonus seconds to help with their GC bid. As the mountain stage is very difficult, I doubt we’ll see the same tactic used here.
Finale
The roads are long and straight, but we do have a couple of roundabouts to negotiate. The final one turn comes with just over 1km to go, but there is a roundabout with 750m remaining. This really does line the peloton out and it’s difficult to make up for a poor position as you enter the roundabout. Cavendish got it wrong here in 2016, with Nizzolo taking the win.
Weather
Lots of sun! The potential for some echelons seems very low, with the wind coming from the north. It looks like being tailwind, followed by a headwind home.
Contenders
Marcel Kittel – a bit of a untested sprint train for the German, but he does have his loyal lead-out man, Fabio Sabatini. Despite many thinking that the Italian isn’t fast enough, Kittel insists on having him as his final man. Sabatini did a fine job in Dubai and I think he’s good enough for this race too. Kittel has already shown his huge power this season, he will expect an early win over his rivals.
Mark Cavendish – it’s been a weird start of Cavendish, but as this is his first World Tour race, I expect him to turn it on. His train looks strong with Eisel, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg and Renshaw. Time for the real Mark Cavendish to stand up!
Andre Greipel – not is usual lead out, but these shouldn’t be crazy sprints. Given the level of teams here, Greipel should be able to find space inside the closing kilometres. He looked after himself well in Portugal and seems to have found some good early season form.
Caleb Ewan – it says something about Orica, that they arrive with the best sprint train. In Roger Kluge and Luca Mezgec, they have a fantastic opportunity of putting Caleb Ewan into a winning position. I would imagine they’ll use Alex Edmondson before them, making it a very fast finishing group of riders. As they are not considered one of the “big” teams, they won’t be expected to shoulder any of the chasing work. That will leave them fresh and capable of taking control with 2km remaining. If put in a good position, Ewan will be hard to beat.
Matteo Pelucchi – one of the few riders who has the speed required to challenge the top sprinters. Now riding for Bora, he will be helped into position by Juraj Sagan, Baska and Selig. That is a decent line up for Pelucchi and he’ll be looking to continue his good start to the season. The Italian was 4th and 2nd in the Mallorca sprint races.
Elia Viviani – looking at his sprint train and that of the others, it’s hard to imagine Viviani starting his sprint in front of his rivals. He is very fast, but this will leave him with too much work to do. He’ll be happy to make the podium.
Prediction Time
For a change, Quick-Step and Lotto Soudal, don’t have the best trains in the race. I think we’ll see Dimension Data and Orica-Scott fight for control in the closing two kilometres. Getting onto a good wheel will be important for Greipel and Kittel, both have the speed to win this race coming from behind the Cavendish and Ewan.
It’s going to be a very fast sprint and I think we’ll see Mark Cavendish take his first win of the season.
David Hunter
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