Abu Dhabi Tour 2017 – Stage 3 Preview

By David Hunter

Hamza Bin Zayed Stadium – Jebel Hafeet 186km

It’s GC day, but a long stretch awaits in the desert, before the riders reach the climb.

The final climb is a tester. It is 11km at around 6%

The long section that averages 8% is a challenge for the riders, but it is on wide roads making it feel very strange to watch. There is a little dip before the final rise to the line. Remember that Wout Poels crashed in the final corner, costing him the win in 2015.

Tactics

Expect to see some teams making this a tough race. Some of the climbers in this bunch do much better after a tough day in the saddle. I expect to see echelons and the full peloton will not arrive at the foot of the climb together. This should be an exciting day to watch.

Weather

Crosswind alert! The wind is coming from the north-east, making it perfect for some echelon action. I think we’ll see a tough stage, before we get to the climb. Strong teams like BMC and Jumbo, will try and put Quintana in trouble. All GC riders will need to ride with great care.

Contenders

Nairo Quintana – vulnerable in the wind. The Colombian will be guided by Daniele Bennati, a very good addition to the Movistar squad. The Italian will need to be at his very best, as I expect Quintana to be put under pressure in the desert. He will hope to survive with the front group, but might arrive a little tired for the hill. That is the only hope the others have, as he is climbing brilliantly just now.

Alberto Contador – Trek usually do well in echelons, but this team doesn’t look the strongest for that type of stage. They do have two potential winners of the stage, Contador and Mollema, but they will hope for a quiet day. Having two riders in good form will be invaluable on the climb. I expect them to let Mollema attack first, and when he is brought back, the Contador party should begin! The Spaniard is clearly in good form and a massive threat to the others.

Romain Bardet – I have high hopes for the Frenchman in this stage. He crashed in the final stage of Oman, stopping him from challenging for the win. The team were very confident that he was going to achieve a big result and having that race in the legs will make him stronger. He has the ability to beat the very best, he has shown us that on many occasions.

Fabio Aru – this Astana are another team that don’t look overly strong in windy conditions. Aru was on good form in Oman, finishing 2nd on the Green Mountain. The length and gradient of this climb are very good for him, but like some of the others, he will hope for little wind.

Vincenzo Nibali – what Nibali are we going to get? I’m not sure even he knows! The Italian is a magnificent talent, but when he is not 100%, he doesn’t look anywhere near his competitors. I would love to see him at his very best, going toe-to-toe with Quintana and Contador.

Tom Dumoulin – at last, a rider who will benefit from a tough day. Just one climb is music to the ears of the Dutchman, he suffers when a stage has multiple ascents of big mountains. He is very good in the wind, so will benefit from a tough day. He has a team around him that can help create panic in the desert.

Ilnur Zakarin – great rider, should be able to climb with the best. The Katusha man had a brilliant 2016 and I expect an even better 2017.

Julian Alaphilippe – if there’s wind, you better be sure that Quick-Step will look to exploit any weakness in the other teams. Like Dumoulin, the Frenchman will be very happy with this route. He should be able to follow the best on the climb, but might suffer at the very end.

Robert Gesink – Lotto Jumbo are another team that will benefit from tough conditions. If they can make the pace fast, Gesink should be able to land a top 10 result, maybe even top 5. He has the explosiveness needed for a climb like this.

Prediction Time

I’m hoping for echelons and fun! If we get a tough day, I think we’ll see a win for Alberto Contador.

*Overall preview

David Hunter

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