Australian National Road Race 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

The riders return to the familiar lap circuit around Mount Buninyong. It’s 183.6km of pain, with 18 laps of the punishing circuit. The climb itself is around 3km at 6%. The final 1km of it is very tough, and much more than 6%. This is where the crucial move usually takes place.

As soon as Simon Gerrans had to withdraw from injury, the Aussie riders started to lick their lips. Gerrans is just about unbeatable on this type of circuit, without him, most riders believe they can win.

Richie Porte is quite clearly in form and a worthy favourite for the race. Porte has one problem, he can’t sprint! If he’s to win, he has to distance everyone on the final climb and solo to victory. This is a big ask, even for him.

Cadel Evans rides in last Australian Road Race. He is focused on a win and does have a sprint. Should he and Porte arrive together, Cadel will win. Many have questioned if Evans winning will be good for the jersey, due to his imminent retirement. Cadel doesn’t mind about this, he’s a driven rider, determined for a grand finale.

Orica come into the race, weakened by the loss of their leader. They are left with 8 men: Hepburn, Meyer, Durbridge, Howson, Hayman, Clarke, Ewan and Docker. They have downplayed their chances but don’t believe a word of it. They are still the team to beat and the pressure is on. Of the 8 riders, they have 5 big engines who can hold the race together. For the climb, they have Meyer and Clarke. If it ends in a sprint, they have Caleb Ewan, winner of the under 23 title in 2014.

Cameron Meyer has an amazingly consistent record in the national road race:-

2009 – 4th. Won by McDonald.

2010 – 31st. Won by his brother and teammate, Travis.

2011 – 6th. Won by Bobridge, his teammate.

2012 – DNF. Won by Gerrans, his teammate.

2013 – 12th. Won by Durbridge, his teammate.

2014 – 4th. Won by Gerrans, his teammate.

Yes, Meyer has played a part in his teammate winning this race for 5 consecutive years. At last, this is his chance to shine! Without Gerrans, he will be team leader. He got some miles in his legs, at the recent Bay Crits and skipped the TT to focus on the race. Some might think that Simon Clarke will be the Orica leader but Clarke returned to Europe for Christmas and New Year, a sign that he is not the chosen rider. Clarke will be a very useful teammate, as the peloton starts to slim down.

Caleb Ewan has started the season well, with wins in the Bay Crit. He doesn’t mind the hilly circuit, having won the under 23 title here in 2014. Ewan is a very small and light rider, which is perfect for short, steep climbs. He handled the hills of Glasgow well, in the 2014 Commonwealth Games, before running out of gas. In my opinion, Ewan won’t win. I don’t see a situation where Orica can control the race for a sprint and no other team will do it for them. Expect to see Ewan on team duties, earning his stripes!

Cadel has a little more help than usual. He arrives with 2 teammates: Rohan Dennis and Campbell Flakemore. Only 2 men, but huge engines. Cadel will feel happy that these 2 are on his team and if the break only has a couple of minutes with 3 laps to go, he’ll sense a chance to win.

Porte only has 1 teammate, Nathan Earle, a fellow Tasmanian. Earle has a strong record here:-

2014 – 12th.

2013 – 15th.

2011 – 9th.

This is a very good record and Earle is a strong climber. As Porte’s only teammate, he’ll find it difficult to get any opportunities. He’ll have to stay close to Richie and hope that the gap stays small. If he’s allowed to go in the break, as an anchor, he’ll be a very dangerous rider.

Heinrich Haussler arrives with David Tanner but the IAM pair will find it hard. It’s not a race Haussler usually does and his last appearance was a DNF in 2012.

The following big name riders arrive with no teammates: Hansen, Rogers, Dempster and Von Hoff. These guys are all quality riders but require a massive amount of luck for the race to go their way. They’ll have to make the difficult decision about going in the morning break. If it has the right mix, it will stay away. If not, they’ll have wasted a lot of vital energy.

I spoke to Adam Hansen, he was hoping for a very hot day….oh dear!

The team with the most amount of riders is Drapac. The Pro Continental team have 12 riders, an advantage on everyone else. They will be expected to help out with the pacemaking and it will be interesting to see who they try to put in the break. They have some strong riders like Will Clarke, Brenton Jones, Darren Lapthorne, Travis Meyer, Sam Spokes, Lachlan Norris, Tim Roe and Bernard Sulzberger. They also have the experience of Graeme Brown, to help with on-road decision making.

Of the continental teams competing, Budget Forklifts are the strongest, with one of the favourites for the race. The decision of Jack Bobridge, to take a step down to this team, surprised many. The reason he joined, was to allow him to continue with his goal of the 2016 Olympics and a shot at the hour record. Bobridge is flying and 3rd place in the TT was a great result. He finished 27 seconds behind Richie Porte and was encouraged by his form. They used to say if Bobridge made the break, he won. He lost his way for a couple of years, but seems to be back to his best. At his best, Bobridge was thought of as the rider of his generation, he is that good. He has 9 teammates with him, so he doesn’t need to go in the break, he can gamble on the final climb. If he does make the break, everyone beware!

Avanti are now officially a New Zealand team. They don’t arrive with numbers but they do have 2 dangerous riders in Mitchell Lovelock-Fay and Neil Van Der Ploeg. They want to get 1 of these boys in the break and let them do their thing. Mitch is a former interviewee and he hopes to finish in the top 10. He went well in the TT, despite having to ride on Jack Haig’s bike. His legs are good and he’s got some confidence and a point to prove. I hope he goes well.

The bad news is the weather…..rain, lots of it! This doesn’t usually happen, so it’s going to be interesting to see how it changes the race. Remember the 2014 Commonwealth Games. That’s they type of race we could get.

Prediction Time

Orica will still be the dominant team. Durbridge and Hepburn are capable of long turns on the front of the peloton. These boys have huge engines and can control most breaks. If we get a big break of 20, with some key riders and enough Orica and Drapac boys, it stays away. If Orica aren’t happy with the break, they will do their best to bring it back together. The rain will ensure a hard race, a battle of the fittest. I think we will see a major selection with a couple of laps to go, from that the big favourites will be there. There is a huge amount of pressure on Porte and Evans and I have a feeling that 2015 will be the year of Cameron Meyer, but watch out if Bobridge is in the break.