Binck Bank Tour 2018 – Stage 6 Preview

By David Hunter

Riemst – Sittard Geleen 182km

At last, the race hits the hills.

This stage is very similar to last year’s, featuring a tough closing circuit, and finishing in the Tom Dumoulin bike park. It might only have 1377m of climbing, but the riders made it a very selective stage in 2017, with just 16 riders finishing in the front group. This year the circuit has been slightly lengthened, but it still features the same climbs:-

Michaelstrappe – 200m at 5%.

Bergstrasse – 700m at 4%.

Schatsberg – 800m at 5%.

Weg Langs Stammen – 350m at 8%.

Stokselweg – 300m at 6%.

Windraak – 700m at 4%.

Watersley – 400m at 4%.

Typical Dutch/German Roads

The lap circuit is classic Dutch roads. They are incredibly narrow, constantly turning and rarely flat. We also have some exposed sections, where you don’t need much wind to split the bunch. The profile looks rather innocuous, but don’t let it fool you, this is a tough stage.

Tactics

The lap circuit contains 20km of relativel flat between the opening two climbs, which will put off early attackers. There is no point for any of the real GC riders wasting energy, instead, they’ll save it for the final series of 6 climbs.

Arguably, the Schatsberg is the most difficult climb of the day, the organisers have decided to keep the golden kilometre just over the top of the hill. Last year, this teased a big attack from Michael Valgren and Tim Wellens and seriously slimmed down the bunch. A well timed attack is capable of collecting 9 bonus seconds, something which could be hugely important in the GC battle.

Due to the nature of the roads, positioning is everything in this stage. Teams can attack at almost any point, snapping the elastic of the bunch. The final 40km demands that riders remain very close to the front of the peloton, something which causes crashes and a nervous group. A strong team can blow the bunch to pieces, in a short period of time.

Matej Mohoric is the current leader of the race, but his team is incredibly weak. It is very possible for him to have no teammates left for the final 20km, making life very difficult for him. No doubt he is very strong just now, but it’s impossible to cover all the moves coming from QuickStep, BMC, Lotto and Sunweb. How he approaches the race will determine if he stays in the race lead, he needs to play poker with the other teams and get them to chase. If he chases too many moves himself, he will lose the race lead.

The onus will be on the “big” teams to attack. These teams have the following riders sitting within 1 minute of Mohoric:-

Sunweb – Matthews and Andersen.

BMC – Küng and Van Avermaet.

Lotto – Campenaerts and Wellens.

QuickStep – Schachmann, Lampaert and Terpstra.

This is going to make life very difficult for everyone else in the bunch. The race has been easy, so all of the riders have lots of energy left. With multiple cards to play, this stage will be incredibly attacking and difficult to control. Good luck Matej!

Weather

Looks like a nice day for the bunch. The wind is light, but is coming from the west, making echelons possible. Is this part of the world, it doesn’t take much to split the bunch.

Kittel Watch 

Another day, another missed opportunity.

Finale

The corners look tight, but as they are in the bike park, they are on very wide roads. Will we have a solo rider or a sprint finish?

Contenders

Tim Wellens – was very unlucky here last year, as he attacked on multiple occasions. He has two stages to put the others under severe pressure and crack the non-classics riders. Lotto have the Campenaerts option, which will give Wellens even more freedom. On this terrain, there are few who can cope with Wellens. His favourite move is to attack just over the crest of the climb, a personal favourite of mine. He lets the others go into the red on the climb and as they try to catch their breath, that is when he moves. The perfect attack! Looking at his GC rivals, he would back himself in a sprint against most of them, but not the Sunweb pair. This will encourage Lotto to put these guys under pressure and take a smaller group to the line. The form is good, the legs are good, Wellens is going to make this a tough day.

Niki Terpstra – enjoyed a brilliant classics campaign, but has just announced he’ll be joining Direct Energie in 2018! As usual, we’ll see QuickStep animate this stage, particularly with 3 riders high on GC. Terpstra lacks a sprint, which means he has to be used as an attacking rider, which suits him perfectly. He’s capable of sustaining a huge number of watts over a relatively long period of time. Putting it simply, if he gets a gap, he ain’t coming back!

Soren Kragh Andersen – the Sunweb rider is enjoying a fine period of form. His presence will worry the other GC riders, thanks to his fast sprint. Sunweb have two good options for this stage, it’s very hard to see them getting dropped given the route, only poor positioning could hurt them. Their tactics will be interesting as both options like attacking and can sprint, putting Sunweb into a very strong position.

Michael Valgren – was strong here in 2017 and will certainly be looking to attack and put pressure on his rivals. Due to his TT, Valgren starts a little far back in the GC battle, but that could work to his advantage. If the GC teams start to cancel each other out, there will be a chance for someone like Valgren to sneak away in the closing kilometres, a move that he loves to make.

Yves Lampaert – could be the QuickStep sprint option. He certainly has the fastest sprint out of their GC riders, which could see him being held back, but I’m not 100% certain about this. Lampaert also possesses a huge engine, which is perfect for attacking. We’ll have to see what role he fulfils, but he has a big option in this stage.

Michael Matthews – he’ll be licking his lips at this stage! After picking up bonus seconds, on Thursday, he is the best placed of the GC riders. He’s 30 seconds behind Mohoric, which will force Sunweb into riding an attacking race and trying to drop the race leader. If we get any type of sprint finish, Matthews has to be the big favourite. It’s very difficult seeing a faster finisher making the front group.

Greg Van Avermaet – the form is good, really good. With Stefan Küng better placed on GC, it will allow GVA to ride with some freedom. He was poorly positioned in 2017 and actually missed the front group, but later made it across with Gilbert and Greipel. Van Avermaet will sense a big opportunity to get away in the closing stages of the race, especially as he won’t have to worry about Sagan chasing him!

Jasper Stuyven – won a brilliant stage in Ardooie and looks in great form. Trek have looked good in this race, it’s been a while since they’ve looked as strong. His stage win brought him back to 53 seconds behind the leader, which means he won’t get any freedom. Stuyven will look to sniff out the right move and get away with a small group, remember, he is a fast sprinter too.

Prediction Time

There are so many things that could happen in this stage, picking the right scenario is hard. I think the big teams will make this a very demanding stage and blow the peloton to pieces. We’ll then see constant attacking before the right move goes away, when it does, I think Greg Van Avermaet will be victorious. Best of luck to Bahrain-Merida, they’re going to need it.

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