Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

After the TDU, most of the peloton remained in Australia for another week. It’s the 2nd edition of the Cadel race, it might be new but it’s a great race. The organisers have decided to stick with the route from 2015, a wise move!

You can see that the men race over 174km and the women do 113km. Both races complete almost the same course, with the lap section in Geelong slightly different for the women.

The opening section of the race sees the riders head out along the coast. We’ll all be hoping for some echelon action! Cannondale were the team who smashed the peloton in 2015, taking to the front with their whole squad. If strong enough, the wind will destroy the hopes of many riders who look to save energy at the back of the bunch.

The ocean section does have some lumps along the way, but not enough to trouble the riders. If they survive the crosswinds, the main action comes in the lap circuit.

The main climb is Challambra Cresecnt. Officially, it’s 900m at 9.6%, with a maximum of 22%. Really, it’s more like 1.3km long and takes the riders around 3:15 to climb. Such a short climb does get the sprinters excited but this is hard, very hard! Once over the top, a 100km/h descent follows. At the bottom of this descent is a narrow bridge before we begin an even shorter climb of around 600m, but it does ramp up to 22%. There is one more opportunity to split the bunch with around 6km remaining.

Looking at the profile you might be deceived due to the lack of long climbs. A lot of people made the mistake of presuming this was a course for sprinters, but it wasn’t. Yes, it was won by Gianni Meersman, but he is a fast rider who can climb very well. He was the only “sprinter” in the elite group. The other quick men followed behind and none of them were pure sprinters either. This is a tough course!

The men complete 3 laps of the circuit and it’s a gradual wearing down process. That’s what makes it too hard for most sprinters. The last time up Challambra is crucial. If you get gapped by 15 seconds, your race is over. What happens after that point depends on which team has bodies in the front group. In 2015 Etixx had 2 men, so De La Cruz was able to work for a sprint with Sky, who also had 2 men, as did BMC and Cannondale. If teams don’t have multiple riders, it decreases the chances of a sprint and helps the late attackers.

The women don’t tackle Challambra, but their race is also very selective. The short climbs are perfect for some of the strong riders to put the rest to the sword. It was Rachel Neylan who took the glory in 2015, shortly afterwards she joined Orica-AIS. She has to go into the race as a strong favourite. Orica-AIS have returned to their rightful place, after a poor 2015. It would take something special for them not to take the title.

In the men’s race, it will come as no surprise to hear that Simon Gerrans is the favourite. Riders coming from the TDU should be significantly better than riders starting their first race of the season. The challenge for Orica will be trying to keep the race together and supporting Gerrans late into the race. To be honest, I’ve seen stronger teams from them. They have Gerro, Haig, Hayman, Ewan, Bewley, Docker and Howson. In terms of climbing support, it looks like being down to Jack Haig. He started the season in fine form, at the Bay Crits, but this is a big ask! Howson and Hayman can climb well, but they really need someone with Gerrans in the very final selection. If they don’t, I doubt any other team will help it become a sprint. That being said, Gerrans could attack and try to go solo.

With Etixx not competing this year, it does open the door to some of the other big teams. Time to look at each team and their main men:-

Orica – Gerrans, Ewan

Lotto – Hansen, Valls, Ligthart

Sky – Kennaugh, Rowe, Swift

BMC – Dennis, De Marchi, Gerts

Katusha – Machado, Taaramae, Tsatevich

Trek – Hesjedal, Bobridge

IAM – Pantano

Jumbo – Bennett, Battaglin

Dimension Data – Cavendish, Meyer, Haas

Drapac – Earle, Norris, Sulzberger

Nippo – Cunego

Avanti – Lane, Shaw, Lake

The first big questions surrounds the chances of Mark Cavendish, making his debut for Dimension Data. He can climb very well, winning the British Championship on a very challenging circuit in Glasgow, back in 2013. However, this is his first race of the year and the team have better options in Meyer and Haas. Miles in the legs for Cavendish., although he his looking nice and thin.

Caleb Ewan is the other sprinter some will fancy for the win. Like Cavendish, he can climb well. He is also a master of a lap circuit, but coming one week after a very demanding TDU, I think this isn’t a race for him. Orica will be behind Gerrans or Haig.

Despite the race stepping up to 1.HC level, I think the field is actually a little weaker in 2016. It does leave us with a few stand-out riders.

Rafa Valls left the TDU in great form, finishing 8th on GC. He did lose 8 seconds on stage 4 but that was due to him breaking a spoke and deciding to try and catch on the end of the bunch, instead of waiting and claiming the 3km rule. Valls is still in great condition and will fancy the climbs. Lacking a finishing sprint, he will have to arrive solo if he wants to win. That isn’t out with his capabilities. The team have a strong alternative in Pim Ligthart. If you are looking for a rider that can get over climbs and sprint, he’s your man. If the climbers don’t get there way and we get a small sprint, the Dutchman should have a great chance.

Jack Bobridge has already shown the fans what he is capable of in 2016, taking the Aussie RR title with a magnificent solo ride. Being a great TT rider is certainly an advantage here and given his ability to deliver huge watts over short periods, Bob Dog has to be considered one of the big riders here. He will be supported by a solid looking Trek team and he’ll hope to annoy the Orica boys again. Word is, there is no love lost between the Orica management and Bobridge.

Team Sky are always competitive in races. They have opted not to bring Sergio Henao but do have Kennaugh, Rowe and Swift. Kennaugh and Rowe were very impressive here in 2015 and Swift should really be able to challenge on a course like this. As you will know, I’m not such a huge fan of Swifty and his sprinting skills but this has to be his type of race. Team Sky will certainly hope so.

Dimension Data look like the strongest team in the race. The have Meyer, Haas, Cavendish, Van Rensburg, Jim, Farrar and Venter. We saw plenty of Meyer and Van Rensburg in the TDU, but Haas did disappoint. They have the Cavendish alternative, if the race isn’t selective, and Farrar is another option. There is every chance that they outnumber the other teams at the end of the race. Considering that all their stars have fast finishes, they will have a large say in the outcome of the race.

Teams are allowed to have 7 riders but BMC and Sky only have 6 and Jumbo 5. Such a shame that they will be disadvantaged due to lack of numbers. Considering how much of a big deal it was for BMC in 2015, it comes as a real surprise to see them only fielding 6, especially looking at the weak nature of their squad. Cadel won’t be happy!

One Pro Cycling are riding their first “big” race. I don’t expect anything from them, but I am excited by the young Australia team. They have some exciting talent, like Ben Dyball and Angus Lyons, but the one that catches my eye is Alistair Donohoe. He is the current para-cyclist World Champion, in the C5 category. He has limited use of his right arm, which qualifies him for para-races. Such a shame for other para-cyclists, as he is a great rider! This year he finished 4th in the Aussie u23 RR. I look forward to seeing him mixing it against the world tour teams!

The women’s race looks like a battle between two teams: Orica and Wiggle. They are the superstar squads here. As the race is only 1.2, the big foreign teams are not here. That is a real shame but they are getting ready for the Tour of Qatar and women’s cycling doesn’t have the money to fly squads around the world for one race. Saying that, Lauren Kitchen is riding and she is class!

Orica have Neylan, Spratt, Roy, Wiles, Rowney and McConville. That should be protected rider status for Neylan(defending champion) and Spratt(Aussie champion). As usual, they will be very hard to beat on home soil.

Orica – Neylan, Spratt

Wiggle – Edmondson, Hosking, Mullens, King

Holden – Malseed

Rush – Corset, O’Donnell(new hour record holder)

Boss – Cromwell

Hogs Breath – Kitchen, Leth

Looking at the strength of the respective squads, it would be a big surprise if Orica or Wiggle didn’t take the crown. Orica took the TDU with Garfoot and the Aussie RR with Spratt. Wiggle have the track sensation, Annette Edmondson, but she might find this course a bit on the hard side. Orica certainly won’t want her in the front group, as she’ll win the sprint with ease. Kitchen and Corset do offer the other teams a chance but riding on weaker teams, they’ll find it hard, but not impossible.

Prediction Time

The form of Gerrans means he should be favourite but Orica look weak to me. Sky look strong, but have one less rider. They can play multiple options with a couple of strong climbers and a sprinter who should cope with the climbs. Lotto have a couple of outside hopes, as do Katusha. BMC look weak, just like IAM and Jumbo. Trek are solid, but Dimension Data are the big threat. I see one of their riders taking the crown and I’ll go with Nathan Haas. He disappointed in the TDU but this race should be right up his alley! I just don’t think Orica will be able to support Gerrans as well as they did in the TDU.

In the women’s race, I see another dominant performance by Orica. I think that Rachel Neylan will defend her title.

David Hunter

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