Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race 2017 Preview

By David Hunter

Geelong – Geelong 174km

After a week to recover from the TDU, most of the same riders are in Geelong for the 3rd edition of the Cadel Evans race. The organisers have decided to stick with the usual route, it’s one the riders know well.

Parcours

The race is split in two sections. The big loop out and back to Geelong, before the demanding circuit around the town itself.

With a long way to go, this section is usually only important for the breakaway riders, as they try and establish a big lead.

The finishing circuit includes three challenging climbs. First up is Challambra Crescent, 900m at 9.6%. This is a brutally steep section of road, with a maximum gradient of 22%. It takes the peloton a little over 3 minutes to climb and will end the day for most riders.

After a 100km/h descent, the riders negotiate a tight bridge, before the next climb. This one is only 500m long, but ramps up to 20%.

We then have one more climb(Hyland Road) for the bunch to negotiate, before they head for home. This is when most riders are tired and a big effort can have a large reward. Again, it’s only around 500m long at 5%, but cresting with just 6km remaining, it represents the last chance for a rider without a sprint to win.

Weather

Looks like being a nice day for cycling. We will have a moderate wind coming off the sea, with the potential for crosswinds as they head along the beach. Once they head back to Geelong, it will be a tailwind.

Contenders

Jan Bakelants – the Belgian is a solid one day rider. He enjoyed some time in the break in the TDU and gives AG2R a real chance of a top result here. It’s hard to think that he’ll be dropped on the climbs, so should play a part in the finale.

Richie Porte – clearly in superb form just now. Going against him is his history in one day races, it’s not very good. His only chance is to drop everyone the last time up Challambra, but that won’t be easy. BMC have a great team with them, as Rohan Dennis and Miles Scotson also provide the team with a good chance of success.

Nathan Haas – 4th place in the TDU was as good as I’ve ever seen him. I had heard stories about his great form, but just didn’t think he would cope with the Paracombe and Willunga stages. He showed me up with a terrific performance, it really was a shame he missed out on the overall podium. This is a race he likes, finishing 3rd in 2015 and 6th in 2016. The Aussie has a very fast sprint, so he’ll feel confident if he arrives in a small group, but the real fast men need eliminating. Expect Dimension Data to ride a fast race, to remove those that can sprint faster than their man.

Simon Gerrans – I’m not sure what to make of Gerro. Unlike previous years, he hasn’t started the season with a bang. Clearly he is targeting a big Spring and feels that he wouldn’t have been able to peak now and in a few months time. Saying that, he still managed to win the bunch sprint for 2nd at the Aussie nationals, a route harder than this one. With Chaves and Gerrans, Orica-Scott have got most of the bases covered. They can let Chaves attack on the climbs, saving Gerrans for the sprint. If we do get a sprint, he’s still the man to beat.

Jay McCarthy – managed to squeeze onto the TDU podium, thanks to quick sprinting in the final stage. McCarthy can be very pleased with his performance, he clearly has improved over the last year. He now seems capable of climbing with the best and he’ll look forward to another chance to show off his skills in this race. Like Haas and Gerrans, he climbs well and sprints fast. The perfect mix for a one day race like this.

Edward Theuns – my Belgian friend has recovered incredibly well, surpassing everyone’s expectations after his horror crash in the TDF. His TDU was frustrating, bad luck costing him a couple of visits to the podium. This race resembles a European race, with the short climbs featuring in the closing circuit. Theuns loves short climbs, but Challambra is about on his limit. If he can survive three minutes of pain, he’ll have a great chance. Looking at his team, he should have some help in the last lap, as Pantano, Stetina and Guerreiro should all survive the climbs. If Theuns makes it too, they should be able to hold the race together.

Cameron Meyer – after a good nationals, his TDU didn’t go as planned. I’m not reading too much into that and still think he has good form. He’s done well here in the past, but has always been riding for teammates. Given his fast finish, he’ll be team leader for this race. He will have plenty of support from his young teammates, who are all talented bike riders.

Petr Vakoc – the big Czech star really is a one day expert, even at just 24. To cope on Challambra you need power, lots of it. A three minute climb is not really one for the mountain climbers, it’s where having horsepower is important. Quickstep are always a massive threat in every one day race, this is no exception. They won the 2015 edition, but skipped the 2016 race. Watch out for the Belgian boys, they’ll be keen to blow the race apart.

Sam Bennett – right on the limit for Sammy. After a solid TDU, he won the Melbourne crit on Thursday. The Irishman is certainly a climbing sprinter, he won a very tough stage of the Tour of Britain way back in 2013. That makes me feel old! As Bora also have McCarthy, Bennett will hope to ghost through the race without too much attention. If he appears with the front group near the end, a big win should be his.

Video Preview

Here is my video preview with Edward Theuns.

Prediction Time

I expect a tough race. With riders like Haas and McCarthy in good form, their teams will want to eliminate all the sprinters. That should create a fast race and I see a small group of around 10 riders reaching the line together. Given his current form, I’ll go with Nathan Haas. It would be a shame to see his good legs go to waste!

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