De Brabantse Pijl 2020 – Preview

By David Hunter

Leuven > Overijse 197km

This is going to be one hell of a race.

Rout change alert! Out goes the Ijskelderlaan and in comes the Moskesstraat for the final two laps. You might reminder this horrible little climb from last year’s Primus Classic, as van der Poel smashed up it and blew most away, only Van Avermaet and Sagan could even attempt to follow.

Weather

Rain in the morning, but it should clear for the race starting. However, there will be a threat of rain throughout the afternoon. The wind is relatively strong, it will be around 30km/h coming from the west. Most of the route is sheltered from the wind, so I don’t expect echelons, but the run from the penultimate climb to the Schavei is headwind, not great for the attackers.

The Climbs

First up is the Hagaard, which has a 300m section at 10%. It’s a nasty little hill.

The Hertsraat is next, the main section of the climb is 700m at 4.5%. This is a cobbled climb, but you can sneak up the gulley and avoid the pave.

In the last two laps the new climb is next. It might just be 600m, but it averages 9% and the cobbles are rugged.

This is quickly followed by the Holstheide, which is 1km at 5%. This is on a wide road and it’s hard to find gaps between the strongest riders.

The race ends with the climb of Schavei. This is 600m at 5.9%, and crests with just short of the line, the final 150km is flat.

Tactics

Can anyone stop van der Poel and Alaphilippe? MVDP is the defending champion, and this year the route is even better for him. Alaphilippe is the new world champion, and after making a mess of the sprint in Liège he’ll be keen on some form of redemption. Their teams will look to dictate the race and set them up for a big attack in the final lap.

Looking to stop them will be Lotto Soudal, Ineos and Bahrain-McLaren. This is a race that is normally fought out by team leaders, but surprises do sometimes happen. The problem is that Alpecin-Fenix and QuickStep are strong teams, it won’t be very easy to knock them off their game plan. I don’t think any team will be able to stop the usual race pattern, which will suit the big two riders down to the ground.

Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel – his current form must be a big worry for everyone in the peloton. Recent wins in Tirreno and the Binck Bank Tour have shown that MVDP is peaking just at the right time. He wasn’t able to make the front group in Liège, but that was expected, sixth was actually a great result. This is the perfect race for him, the hills are short and punchy, just as he likes. He starts as the man to beat, something which must give everyone else a headache.

Julian Alaphilippe – beating MVDP is not going to be easy. Given the length of these climbs, I don’t think Alaphilippe can drop the big man. With this is mind, it might be wise for QuickStep to try and let Julian mark MVDP, allowing one of his domestiques to take their chances. His team is the strongest in the race, it might be possible to play this scenario, riders like Devenyns and Bagioli will like this race. The problem in doing this is that QuickStep will be admitting that MVDP is better than Alaphilippe. Can Julian’s ego take it?

Tim Wellens – loves this race, but his current form isn’t great. As this race is shorter and easier than the recent efforts, Wellens should be able to hang with the big boys.

Michal Kwiatkowski – it’s great seeing him at this race, the same goes for Ineos. He’s just been behind the main riders in recent weeks, but not by much. This is a good route for the former world champion, I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do.

Benoît Cosnefroy – a mechanical took him out of Liège, but let’s be honest, he wasn’t going to survive in the front group. This type of race is much more to his style, and he should be one of the riders looking to animate proceedings. He has a fast punch on short climbs, which is perfect for this. Like everyone else, the problem is beating van der Poel and Alaphilippe.

Sonny Colbrelli – looked brilliant on the Muur on Saturday. It was great seeing him racing again, after being on domestique duties for the whole of the Tour de France. This is a race Colbrelli has an excellent record in, he won in 2017 and was second in 2018. He would love the day to end in a sprint, but given the other contenders, this is unlikely to happen. If Sonny is winning this, he’ll need to follow the attacks on the climbs.

Matteo Trentin – this is his first race since the Tour, so we’ll have to see how his legs react. On paper, this is a very good route for the Italian. His climbing ability continues to improve, and he has the sprint required to win from a small group. CCC are a team with some good form, the likes of Van Hooydonck and Van Hoecke have impressed me recently.

Loïc Vliegen – current form is very good, even if his results don’t say so. Some bad luck in previous races have stopped him from achieving success, but the legs are good. Wanty don’t win many races, but Vliegen is a very strong rider.

Prediction Time

If all goes to plan, it’ll be van der Poel versus Alaphilippe. I think Mathieu van der Poel will successfully defend his title, his current form is very strong.

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