Dubai Tour 2015 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Dubai-Dubai 123kmThe race ends with a stage held within the city. At just 123km, it’s short and will end in a bunch sprint. Stage 3 left the race poised for an epic showdown, as Degenkolb leads Cavendish by 4 seconds and Lobato by 8 seconds.

The organisers have pulled off a master stroke by placing the first sprint point after 12.8km. The peloton will fly out of the blocks and Etixx will do everything they can to let Cavendish sprint for 3 bonus seconds. Or will they? If Degenkolb doesn’t gain time on Cavendish in bonuses, Cavendish can win the race by taking first place in the stage. If Degenkolb finishes 2nd, Cav wins on count back. Etixx don’t need to risk going for the bonus seconds, but it’s a risky strategy placing everything on winning the stage.

In the 2 sprints we’ve had, Team Sky have looked good. Bernie Eisel and Geraint Thomas both look better than their rival men in the Etixx train. The problem for Sky is Swift. It’s not really his fault, as he’s not a lead-out man. Renshaw is miles better than him and this can detract from the excellent work of Eisel and Thomas.

Andrea Guardini is sprinting well but his old positional problems have resurfaced and this is stopping him from winning stages. There’s a 90 degree turn, not far from the finishing line, so positioning will be important.

Porsev of Katusha has looked the best of the other sprinters but no one is really coming close to the top 3. Giant have the added incentive of keeping Degenkolb in the overall lead. Their sprint train is too weak to seriously contend with Etixx and Sky. They need to put him on the wheel of Cavendish and hoped he can jump him.

Lobato has struggled to get going in the sprints and I can’t see this changing.

Nicola Ruffoni only finished 10th on stage 2, but he came from a long way back. There are signs that he’s starting to find his feet and he does have the speed to threaten the podium.

Prediction Time

Etixx need to win the stage. When faced with this situation the team usually deliver. They are an incredibly strong outfit and deliver under pressure. The effort that the whole team put into stage 3 shows how committed they are and their will to win is very strong, I can’t see any other outcome! Cavendish for me.

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