Dubai Tour 2017 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

After a spell in Australia, the pro peloton begin their gradual move back West. They arrive in Dubai for the 4th edition of the race. It’s a popular race with the riders as they get nice weather and a beautiful hotel to stay in. The organisers have taken the popular decision of extending the race by another day, making it 5 stages long. It makes the long trip even more worthwhile.

The addition of an extra sprint stage makes it more likely a sprinter wins the overall, just like in the last two years. Bonus seconds for stage wins makes it very hard for any of the puncheurs to take the win, even if they take the stage to Hatta Dam. The only thing in the way of the sprinters is the potential for wind on stage 3.

Route

Stage 1

Sprint stage number 1. We have used this stage before, most of us know it well.

Stage 2

The 2nd stage sees the riders travel along the coast for a new finish. Should be another easy day with a big sprint finish.

Stage 3

The third stage sees the riders travel across the country, hopefully we get some wind. However, it looks like another sprint.

Stage 4

Stage four is the one we’ve all been waiting for. Despite the inevitability of the stage, I love the finish at the Hatta Dam. Drop the riders off at the foot and let them explode for twenty seconds. This effort is about pure power, that is why sprinters can take the stage. We’ve seen Degenkolb and Lobato win here in the last couple of years. Both are back, but I wonder if we’ll get a new winner.

Stage 5

Another sprint stage for the quick men. Due to the nature of the stages, the GC should still be up for grabs and we could see a winner takes all moment.

Contenders

Marcel Kittel – two stages and an impressive 6th on the Dam was enough to win the overall for the big German in 2016. He is back to defend his crown and open his 2017 season. Supporting him in the sprints will be Vermote, Trentin and Sabatini, with plenty of TT power further down the train. After a good 2016, he’ll want to strike early over Cavendish.

Mark Cavendish – the man who blew them all away at the Tour, again! 4 stages was beyond what anyone thought he was capable of, but the Manx Missile delivered win after win after win. Cav went on to finish the season in fine fashion, although he’s still hurting from missing out on gold in Qatar. It will be fun to see him fight Kittel in Dubai.

Dylan Groenewegen – the revelation of 2016. His development at Jumbo was significant, can he continue to develop at the same rate in 2017? It will be fascinating to see how his train gets on, as Jumbo have added Amund Grondahl Jansen and Gijs Van Hoecke. Along with Timo Roosen they form an incredibly young train. I’m sure the Lotto bosses know what they’re doing and I’m really excited to see how they perform.

John Degenkolb – back to see if he can win on the Hatta Dam for the second time and maybe take the GC. Now riding for Trek-Segafredo, the German arrives with an old friend, Koen de Kort. He will hope to gain time on the others on the Dam, but he’ll also need to pick up bonus seconds in the other stages. He seemed to be getting back to his old self as we approached the end of 2016, I hope we see him back to his very best again.

Carlos Barbero – the Spaniard was clearly using the TDU as early season training. He arrives in Dubai with some experienced riders to help him in the sprints. He will love the Dam stage, and will hope to show himself in the flat sprints too. He is a talented rider, but confidence can be a problem. A few good performances and he’ll be set up for the season.

Sonny Colbrelli – I’m not really sure what we’ll get from Colbrelli in 2017. He has moved to the Bahrain team, but I don’t think that team is the best fit for him. The Italian can be a slow starter to a season, but his new team will want some good early results.

Prediction Time

Marcel Kittel should be ready to hit the ground running. I see him following the same plan as last year, nail a couple of sprint stages and hang tough on the Dam. The German should be able to defend his crown.

David Hunter

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