Eneco Tour 2014 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Stage 4 Recap
We eventually got a sprint and it was won by Nacer Bouhanni. Greipel had earlier abandoned, due to a sore throat, but the victory was overshadowed by a horrific crash, involving Stybar. The Czech rider was seriously injured after crashing in the finishing straight. A real shame for him and OPQS.
Stage 5 Geraardsbergen – Geraardsbergen 162.5km
Welcome to the Holy Trilogy of Hell!
The riders begin three mini-classic stages, beginning with the mini Flanders. We have 19 climbs during the day, 10 inside the final 60km. The stage ends with the Muur van Geraardsbergen, but is usually the final stage. The stage has been moved but also made harder. It only had 12 climbs in 2013.
The most important difference between this stage and the real Flanders is the length, 162.5km compared to 259.1km. This opens the door to the riders that lack a little over the longer distance, but it isn’t going to be easy.
Lars Boom is the race leader and has to defend, or will he? Belkin tried to put Bram Tankink in today’s break, but it failed to work. He has Sep Vanmarcke, a real threat on GC, so they can send him up the road and let the others chase, giving Boom a free ride.
Last year, the winning move came on the penultimate climb, the Denderoordberg. Stybar attacked, Boom tried to follow but failed. As the course is harder, the crucial moment may come earlier in the race, depending on team tactics.
BMC are in a strong position with Van Avermaet, Quinziato and Gilbert all close on GC. They can also send riders up the road, allowing Gilbert a free ride. Gilbert crashed out in 2013 and he wants revenge. BMC were very visible today, a good sign for Gilbert.
With Stybar crashing out, Tom Dumoulin is taken over as the race favourite. I have my doubts that he can cope with all the climbs. He has Simon Geschke to help, but I expect the other teams to try and isolate and punish him.
Team Sky have Geraint Thomas. Fresh from a gold medal in the Commonwealth Games and a fairly good Spring, much is expected from the Welshman. Is he capable of delivering when expectation is high?
Despite the crash to Stybar, OPQS still have a very strong team, with multiple options. Niki Terpstra will be their GC player, but they have Boonen, Stegmans, Trentin and Van Keirsbulck. This is enough to set a fierce pace and destroy the peloton. The will ride with anger tomorrow, a very strong emotion!
What will we get from Cancellara? On paper, this is his stage! Cobbles, short climbs, he’s made for this. He lost time in the opening two stages, but was great in the TT. He did lead-out work today, so I get the feeling he either isn’t too bothered or not in great form. However, you can never write him off!
Looking further down the list, we have: Keukeleire, Grivko, Breschel, Langeveld, Marcato, Vanendert, Pozzato and Wellens. Can any of these riders shock us?
The best bet would be Jelle Vanendert. He is a brilliant rider and is far enough down on GC to benefit from the GC riders letting him go, near the finale.
Can a breakaway survive?
The problem is the quality of rider, far enough down on GC. We do have Stannard, Lampaert, Pozzato, Chainel and Lastras.
Stannard has previous in this race, but he’s not yet back to form.
The winner tomorrow needs to be an explosive climber, tactically aware and have a good team. Out of the GC riders, Gilbert and Vanmarcke are the most explosive and also have the fastest sprint. Vanmarcke was hit on the arm by Porsev and his bike today. He went to the hospital, but nothing is broken. He will, however, be bruised and sore. Not great for cobbles.
Prediction time…
Time for Philippe Gilbert to remind everyone that he’s the boss!
David Hunter
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