Flèche Wallonne 2018 Preview
By David Hunter
Seraing – Mur de Huy 198km
After many years of complaints, the organisers have decided to change the route.
The changes come in the opening half, with the organisers deciding to add some more climbing. Instead of rolling towards the lap circuit in Huy, we now have three categorised climbs to deal with and one of them is Côte de La Redoute! Now, these climbs are too far out for any significant action, but it will take some of the energy out of the domestiques, meaning less riders to chase in the closing stages.
The Mur
It’s a beauty!
Weather
A lovely sunny day, seems that spring is eventually here! The wind is coming from the east and we do have lots of exposed roads, but it shouldn’t be strong enough to cause any splits.
How Do You Beat Valverde?
The great man has four consecutive wins and five overall in this race. Movistar have done a great job in the last few years of controlling the final lap and bringing Valverde to the foot of the Mur, right at the head of the bunch. If this happens again, he will win.
It is up to the other teams to try and attack much earlier than usual. Côte de Cherave was added to try and encourage attacking riding, but it’s not really worked out that way. Movistar will have a few riders to cover the attacks and when they refuse to work, it usually ends the move. We usually then see a solo rider or small group get away, but with plenty of men in the bunch, they are caught at the foot of the Mur.
Given the extra climbing in this addition, it is possible to upset Movistar. We need to see a team decide to attack in each of the laps, not just waiting for the last one. Looking at the depth of each squad, it seems that UAE, Astana, Lotto and Sky have the numbers to do something, but will they?
Big Guys
Alejandro Valverde – didn’t win on Sunday, but looked very impressive. He will look towards Landa and Betancur to shoulder a lot of the late work, leaving him to wait for the final climb. If he starts that at the front, he is impossible to beat. No one copes with the double digit gradient as well as he does.
Dan Martin – needs to sort out his position on the Mur. Too often we have seen him coming from way back, but still managing to finish on the podium. If the Irishman can start it beside Valverde, he has good chance of challenging for the crown.
Julian Alaphilippe – another rider that impressed on Sunday. He seems to be riding at a very high level, but he still needs that big win. QuickStep have the depth to ride an attacking race and try to pressurise Movistar. It would be a surprise if Alaphilippe didn’t make the podium.
Tim Wellens – will he wait for the Mur or attack on the penultimate climb? In 2016 he attacked and was caught, last year he waited and finished 18th. Given his current form, I think he will go back to the attacking. Lotto have a number of riders capable of animating the race, particularly Benoot and Van Der Sande. Wellens is one of the few riders capable of holding off the bunch, hopefully we see him roll the dice.
Dylan Teuns – was the surprise of last year, finishing in 3rd place. Teuns is very explosive on steep slopes, it seems he only really gets motoring above the 10% mark! After a brilliant 2017, he has started 2018 in fine form. Excellent performances in Paris-Nice and Itzulia have made him a marked man, but it’s something he’ll just have to get used to. I think he will wait for the final climb and see if he can somehow put pressure on Valverde.
Wee Guys
Floris De Tier – 16th on Sunday was a result that I took notice of. The belgian is a talented rider and loves steep slopes, remember he was 5th in the Mur finish in Andalucía. Looking at the Jumbo squad, he should have some freedom.
Sam Oomen – just 22, but already with some huge results. Oomen is a rider who will enjoy a fantastic career, but he is still at the stage where he gets some freedom. He was 39th on debut in 2016, when he was just 20!
Ruben Guerreiro – the Portuguese road race champion is certainly one for the future. In his second year with Trek, he’s started to impress with some strong performances. He was runner up to Kwiatkowski on the Malhão climb in the Tour of Algarve.
Prediction Time
The reign of Valverde is going to end! I’m expecting a very aggressive race and a small group to escape and battle for the win. Raising his arms with be Tim Wellens.
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