Gent Wevelgem 2020 – Preview

Welcome to De Moeren, the windiest part of Belgium! In this area, a well-timed fart can cause an echelon, let alone a 30km/h cross/tailwind. The race will split here, and the conditions remain favourable for the next 40km. This will be carnage!

Tactics

Simple, get to the front at De Moeren, and smash the bunch to pieces. Hope that you have a few riders in the front group and keep piling on the pressure until the Kemmelberg. Then we’ll see what happens. Depending on the composition of the front group, there is a possibility it gets brought back, but that also depends what’s happening behind. The peloton will have to be quite big to bring back a front group of hitters.

Once the climbing is done, the road goes north-east to Ypres. This means a cross/headwind, which is tough for the front group. If the peloton is large, there is a chance to bring the race back together here, this is exactly what has happened in recent years. Once through Ypres, it is tailwind nearly all the way home, if you want to catch the front group it has to happen before Ypres.

Inside the mind of van der Poel

Attack, attack, attack. It’s not a question of whether he will attack, it’s when? Alpecin-Fenix are full of big, strong Belgians, the wind shouldn’t be a problem for them. It’s impossible to believe that van der Poel won’t be in the front group, but he might be a little worried about being outnumbered by other teams. This is one of the reasons he attacks early, it puts the others on the back foot. It wouldn’t surprise me if he attacked before the final ascent of the Kemmelberg, but who will follow?

The Climbs

The first two ascents of the Kemmelberg include the Monteberg.

Brutal, there is nowhere to hide. The strongest riders come out on top here.

Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel – his form is on the up, recent wins in Tirreno and Binck Bank have been hugely impressive. As Roubaix has been cancelled, this race takes on even more significance. Lining up against his old rival, Van Aert, will add some extra motivation for him. As I’ve mentioned, he is probably going to go long and put pressure on his rivals, a move that usually works for him. I look forward to him tearing up the rule book.

Wout Van Aert – the rider of 2020. After picking up silver over in Italy he had a well-earned rest. We’ll have to see how his legs respond in this race, there is no guarantee he’ll be at the same level he was during the Tour de France. On a normal day, he’d be one of the best on the Kemmelberg, and the fact he’s sprinting so well means he starts as the favourite. His team looks strong, they’ll be able to get a few riders in the front group, if we get splits in the wind.

Sonny Colbrelli – current form is very good, and he usually goes well towards the end of the season. If the race ends in a sprint, he’ll be confident of getting a big result. One issue is the strength of his team, he’ll need to hope that others do the chasing.

Oli Naesen – crashed hard in the opening stage of the Binck Bank Tour, but was able to sprint for second in the final stage. That was a good sign, I had feared his injury would ruin the classics for him. He is a rider who seems to improve his sprint every year, but winning this race will be tough.

QuickStep – I’ll whisper it, they aren’t as strong as usual. Bennett will do well to survive the Kemmelberg, it looks too hard for him. Sénéchal, Štybar and Lampaert didn’t impress in the Binck Bank Tour, and Asgreen is another who might not have the legs for the Kemmelberg. If the race splits early, they should have multiple riders in the front group. That will allow them to attack early, which has to be the correct move given the current form of their leaders.

Trek Segafredo – you just know they’ll be the team splitting it up in the wind. Theuns, Kirsch,  Pedersen and Stuyven are all brilliant in echelons. This should mean they are one of the best represented teams at the head of the race. Once into the finale, we’ll have to see how they play their cards, but Pedersen clearly has good legs just now. Stuyven hasn’t been seen since the Worlds, so we’ll have to see how he goes, but I expect him to be good.

Alexander Kristoff – a tough race would be good news for the Norwegian, but successfully defending his title looks almost impossible.

Prediction Time

The man, the legend, Mathieu van der Poel.