Giro d’Italia 2017 – Stage 14 Preview
By David Hunter
Castellania – Oropa 131km
Another big day for Tom Dumoulin.
A bit of a weird stage. Just 131km long and pan flat, until the last 11km. We were last here in 2014, a stage that was amazingly won by Enrico Battaglin. Crucially, it started Quintana’s march for the pink jersey.
Oropa
11.8km at 6.2% is not the hardest climb you’ll see in the Giro. As you can see, the opening 5km is very easy, but the final 6.75km averages 7.9%. With plenty of sections over 10%, we will see some big attacks from a little Colombian. Expect a huge attack with 6km to go, but is it long enough to make big gaps?
Tom Dumoulin will approach this stage with confidence. He will have his full team with him, at the bottom of the climb, and will fully expect to have some support until the final kilometres. This is not a stage Sunweb will be overly concerned about.
We all know that Quintana will attack, but if Dumoulin can restrict any losses to 20 seconds, it will be a good day at the office. Given the easy profile, Dumoulin has every chance of staying close to the little Colombian.
Weather
Another pleasant day for the peloton, with sunshine and clouds. There is a very light wind coming from the north-east, but it shouldn’t bother the riders.
Breakaway Hopes
The flat start makes it difficult for climbers to join the morning break, but not impossible. The stage is easy, that means the gaps at the end won’t be huge, Movistar would like to have the chance of taking 10 bonus seconds.
Contenders
Nairo Quintana – starts as the overwhelming favourite. He has to attack and take as much time as possible, but that won’t be easy. Movistar will set a fierce pace into the base of the climb, then the climbers will take off. Watch out for Anacona, he is capable of setting a pace that will put many riders into difficulty. Once he is finished, Quintana will go. To take maximum time, Nairo really needs to move with 5km remaining. That way, he has a chance of gaining 30-40 seconds on Dumoulin.
Thibaut Pinot – after a disappointing TT, Pinot will be looking to make up some of that lost time. The climb is one that should suit him and given his fast finish, he would be the favourite if a small group approach the line together. In Sebastien Reichenbach, Pinot has an amazing support rider, someone that can help him deep into the climb. That is a luxury the others don’t have.
Tom Dumoulin – all about setting his own pace and following wheels. With only 6km of difficult climbing, he really should be able to stay with the best and not lose any time. When Quintana attacks, the attitude of the others will be interesting. Will they sit on and force Dumoulin to chase? It’s a shame that Kelderman has gone, he would have been important in the last 5km.
Vincenzo Nibali – after a strong TT, I do have a feeling that Nibali has good form. He blew badly on Blockhaus, but this is another day. The length of the climb is again good for him, he was able to follow Quintana for a long time on the steep slopes, before he imploded!
Adam Yates – not sure what we’ll get from Yates. The crash doesn’t seem to have caused any injury, but his mental state is important. If he can put the disappointment behind him, he has a good chance of winning this stage. A fast finish makes him a dangerous opponent.
Mikel Landa – the first of my breakaway hopes. The Spaniard didn’t look at his very best on Wednesday, but he should be getting better by the day. The start of the stage means it will be hard for him to join the break of the day.
Pierre Rolland – clearly in great form, just needs some luck. Has a better chance than most of the climbers of making the morning move. If he gets in the break, he has a great chance of taking the win.
Michael Woods – should give Cannondale a good second option. The climb is a good length for him and he has shown good form already. It will be interesting to see how Cannondale approach the stage, they have good climbers but can only win from the break.
Omar Fraile – why not another stage attempt by the brilliant Spaniard!? Unlike a lot of climbers, he does possess a big engine and could make the morning move. He will also be keen on taking KOM points, but that will only happen if the break stays away.
Prediction Time
The length of the stage means that the GC teams should be able to control the break. FDJ, Bahrain and Movistar will want to compete for a stage win and bonus seconds. Once on the climb, we will just have to wait for the Quintana attacks. Can anyone follow him? Given his climbing on Blockhaus, I think we’ll see Quintana distance the rest and take another stage win.
David Hunter
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