GP La Marseillaise 2022 – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Over in France we have another race that is referred by many as a traditional start to the season, we’re still in the Mediterranean and it is around Marseille that the French calendar has it’s opener, in what is frequently an exciting race where the attackers and the sprinters battle to balance the scale in their favour.

The Route

It is not an easy day out on the saddle, being the first race day of the season for most it’ll be a shock to the system, we’ve got 3000 meters of climbing packed in 177 kilometers, the route doesn’t have much flat terrain so there won’t be much of an easy period, but the race enters it’s crucial phase in the final third.

By the way those gruesome gradients are a GPS error, but it is nevertheless quite a hard climb! 3.2Km at 9.5% and it summits with 47.5Km to go, it is the hardest climb of the race and will be tackled via it’s hardest side, it’s the place where the climbers must attack, or at the very least push on to distance the faster men, if they don’t they will struggle to achieve the same result later.

The final 35 kilometers are still quite hard though, it features Pas d’Oulier (29Km to go) and the Col de la Gineste (9.5Km to go). The first should be more of a setup, if real attacks are to come at this time it will be on the final climb, split into two small hilltops, it is a good place to attack as after the summit inside the final 10 kilometers the remainder of the course will be very fast, mostly downhill but with great speeds.

In case a sprint takes place like last year it will be on a straight flat road, nowhere to hide.

The Weather

Clear sky and nice temperatures, but the wind will be present and like last year, it will help keeping the peloton more compact as it will be coming from the Northwest with moderate intensity. Tailwind in Crêtes, however afterwards most of the climbing sections will have a headwind to it. Sure enough it isn’t brutal, but it will make a difference, specially as the final climbs aren’t steep.

Tactics

Many things can happen, here’s a list of scenarios, and to begin I will affirm that big attacks will come on Crêtes, that is inevitable. It will have a tailwind and is the hardest climb of the day, the only one where the climbers can make real differences:

1: Attacks happen on Crêtes, a group of a few riders get away and establish a gap, teammates behind will deorganize the chase, group will stick together until the finish likely.

2: Attacks happen on Crêtes but they cancel each other out, a medium-sized peloton will go into the next climbs.

2.1: In the final climb more attacks happen but nobody is able to get away, a group with the survivors will sprint to the line.

2.2: In the final climb attacks happen but no-one is able to force through, someone who tries and happens to not be followed will end up getting a gap and rolling all the way to the line alone as the finale is fast.

2.3: Riders like Coquard, Pedersen or Cort are in the group, and some teams manage to make an alliance and block every attack into the headwind. Small bunch sprint, like last year.

The Favourites

EF – They brough in their A-game to Marseille, Magnus Cort Nielsen is one of the men to beat if he comes in with good form and with the likes of Michael Valgren, Alberto Bettiol and Jens Keukeleire in the team they absolutely have many cards they can play. Cover moves with two, save the other two for an eventual sprint, as long as they all resist the main climb.

AG2R – Having just returned from a Covid infection I doubt Benoit Cosnefroy will be sharp but he’s always a rider to watch out, AG2R are a team that must attack, Clément Champoussin is also one that must be covered.

Groupama – Thibaut Pinot is perhaps the big weapon for the French team and that makes me happy. An attack is likely knowing him, even if just to test himself, but the team also has options in Quentin Pacher and Bruno Armirail to attack and try to sneak in a win.

UAE – Very strong, too strong? 4 leaders in theory at the start, Covi and Ulissi will need attacks on the climbs and can sprint, Trentin needs to attack but outside of the main climbs, and Joel Suter needs a small group sprint but not an overly hard race. They have many cards and that is good, but I do think that they can’t take the race to a sprint, it will be interesting to see how they manage tactics.

Bryan Coquard – A rider that is wildly fit for this race if in form. Debuting in his new colours of Cofidis he is likely to have a leadership role and will be looking for alliances to keep the race under control. Guillaume Martin can play a big role in assisting, and Anthony Perez is a wildcard that is ideal to cover attacks.

Israel – Southern Hemisphere boys are known to start off the season well, Patrick Bevin and Daryl Impey are good names to look out for, strong puncheurs who can sprint quite well. Mads Wurtz is also a decent option, he and Sep Vanmarcke are strong rouleurs who can attack towards the end if the climbs aren’t ridden too hard.

Trek – A weird lineup, yet a very strong one. A lot of diversity as Mads Pedersen comes in as the strongest sprinter in the startlist, Bauke Mollema comes as the type of climber who excels in classics and has an opportunist eye, and Toms Skujins who is a mix of both.

B&B Hotels – Franck Bonnamour comes in as a consolidated leader leading B&B, Alan Boileau and Jonathan Hivert are also strong outsiders and have the ideal skillset for a hilly classic.

Everything can happen though. Last year the headwind blocked the race and some sprinters made it through and into the fight for the win, and that scenario can’t be excluded once again. Thomas Boudat who was the runner-up last year may take advantage of a repition, riders like Arne Marit, Kristoffer Halvorsen and Rudy Barbier can benefit from this.

From more classics-driven riders you have the likes of Thomas de Gendt and Rasmus Tiller who are really interesting riders who can have a huge impact on the race in the right circumstances. And as for the puncheur/sprinter side Bingoal’s Milan Menten and Kern Pharma’s Francisco Galván are my men to watch.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#95 Alan Riou – Alan, we have the climbers down in Spain so you will have to survive without much support tomorrow. The keyword is survive, you have Amaury have good chances if you can hang on with big groups, the team will support and position you into the base of the climbs but you have to do the hard work.

#55 Toms Skujins – First day of the season Toms, hope you’ve filled up on potatoes nicely! Big day tomorrow, if you’ve done your winter training well you’ve got a nice opportunity tomorrow, the main priority is to protect Mads but you have a green card. If Mads survives until the final climb then it’s all-in protecting him and pacing the group alongside Bauke. If Mads drops on Crêtes then you and Bauke have to take turns attacking, hopefully one of those moves will succeed.

#25 Hugo Toumire – Hugo we have a good team here and we are going for the win. Bryan climbs well, we must protect him. You, Guillaume and Rémy climb really well and have to stabilize all moves and reel in everyone that tries to go from Crêtes on. Anthony will try to cover moves later and your job is to make sure those two are fresh and within possibilities of winning towards the end.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Cort, Coquard, Valgren

⭐⭐ Cosnefroy, Bonnamour, Suter, Mollema, Keukeleire

⭐ Trentin, Covi, Ulissi, Bettiol, Impey, Bevin, M.Pedersen, Champoussin, Pinot, Perez, De Gendt, Tiller, Menten

A hard one, I do believe the race will be attacked a lot but I don’t see escapees succeeding, too many strong and balanced teams will possibly cancel each others. I’m going with Jens Keukeleire to win from a reduced group.

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