Il Lombardia 2020 Preview
By David Hunter
Bergamo – Como 231km
No longer the race of the fallen leaves. This is now the race of the roasting hot sunshine.
I could talk all day about this route, but you don’t have time for that. I’ll cut straight to the important points.
Muro di Sormano, one of my favourite climbs in cycling. Every agonising metre is painted on the road. This is where the first main selection is made, and it’s usually a big one. The gradient is unrelenting and there is simply no place to hide if you have bad legs. A fast descent follows, before 16km of flat beside the lake before we hit the next obstacle.
Civiglo, the main course for the peloton. 4km at 10% is tough, especially when you factor in the heat this year. Last year we had a situation where the leaders played poker with each other and Bauke Mollema escaped, never to be seen again.
The final climb is relatively easy and hard to make a selection on, but that selection is usually already made.
Weather
Hot.
Tactics
How to beat Remco? All teams arrive with asking the same question, his recent displays have been so powerful that he starts as the overwhelming favourite. The main chance is the Sormano, this is where the pace needs to be so high that all Evenepoel’s domestiques are dropped, but given the way Almeida is climbing that won’t be easy. Without helpers, Remco will be isolated on the Civiglo climb and susceptible to attack.
If domestiques survive, then you need to try and drop them early on the Civiglo climb, leaving Remco isolated. The other option is to simply out climb him, but that looks the least likely event to happen. Beating Remco will not be easy, but can he keep this peak going forever?
Contenders
Remco Evenepoel – after dominant wins in Burgos and Poland, the young Belgian starts as the big favourite. This will be the longest race he’s competed in, there is no guarantee that his body reacts favourably after a long day in the saddle, at least that’s what his rivals are hoping. The team looks fairly strong, but a lot of pressure will be on the young shoulders of Almeida. If he survives the Sormano, it will be a big boost for Remco as the bunch head towards the big climb of Civiglo. Once there, expect a team like Trek-Segafredo to try and put the pressure on, no way everyone simply waits for Remco to attack. He’s already done some special things in his short career, but a monument at 20 would be extra special.
Jakob Fuglsang – he’s cut a frustrated figure in recent races as he’s clearly had the legs to win, but it’s not quite worked out. Astana have the team strength required to make this a hard race, but can Fuglsang drop Remco? What the Dane brings is experience, just last year he took a very dominant win in Liège, his first monument. He continues to improve and despite the presence of the young Belgian I expect Fuglsang to be confident of taking the win. If others look to mark Fuglsang, watch out for the flying Russian, Aleksandr Vlasov.
Trek Segafredo – Ciccone, Mollema and Nibali give Trek multiple cards to play in the finale of the race. Weirdly, this actually puts a lot of pressure on their shoulders. Ciccone tried to animate Milan-Sanremo, but he failed to get away. Nibali was in the right position on the Poggio, but he couldn’t follow the move of Alaphilippe and Van Aert. Mollema on the other hand has been racing over in France, putting in some respectable rides. It will be interesting to see how he approaches the race, it’s unlikely he’ll have the same freedom compared to last year. With three options, I hope to see Trek ride an aggressive race.
Ivan Sosa – his stage win in Burgos shows his current form. This is a race he can do well in, but the distance from the top of Civiglo to the finish isn’t ideal. Sosa is a pure climber, he doesn’t cope very well with easier climbs, sprints, descents and trying to TT away from a chasing pack. I hate to paint such a picture, as I’m a fan of his, but winning this race will be tough.
George Bennett – went well in Burgos, but faded a little on the last stage. Then went to Tour de l’Ain and was last man for Roglič, a role he performed incredibly well. He now gets another chance to chase personal glory, before dedicating himself to the team for the Tour de France. This is the best I’ve ever seen the Kiwi climb, his win on Wednesday was well deserved. After waiting years to win a monument, it would be pretty cool if Jumbo-Visma won two in one week.
Michael Woods – I have my doubts about him mainly due to his preparation. While rivals have been getting distance into their legs be riding Burgos, Poland and l’Ain the Canadian has only raced Strade Bianche and Milano-Sanremo. In my opinion, this is not enough.
Podcast
For those interested, here is my Lombardia betting podcast.
Prediction Time
Got to be Remco Evenepoel.
David Hunter
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