La Fleche Wallonne 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

Waremme – Mur de Huy 205.5km

The Mur de Huy, one of the famous climbs in cycling. Win here and you’ll be remembered for life!

The race is usually all about the famous wall but the organisers have changed things around this year.

We have a new climb, which crests just 5.5km from the finish. It’s the Cote de Cherave and is 1.3km at 8.1%. This could have a huge influence on the race. Realistically, only a handful of men can win on the Mur, this provides everyone else with a change of a late attack.

2014 was a strange year as we lacked the usual finish. With 300 metres to go, the winner has usually exploded from the bunch and is dancing their way to glory. Last year, everyone was equal, until 150 metres to go. Dan Martin put in an attack but Valverde moved to the right and surged to glory. It was his second win, coming 8 years after his first. Valverde looked strong, in Amstel, and is favourite to complete a hat-trick of victories. He arrives with a couple of strong helpers: Nairo Quintana and Gorka Izagirre.

Dan Martin continues to improve here. He’s finished 6th, 4th and 2nd in the last 3 years. Continue that form and he’ll finish zero placed here! Seriously, he has a good chance of success. His team is very strong, with Formolo and Slagter acting as wingmen. The Irishman won big in Il Lombardia, in 2014, and will want to follow up that success here. It’s a race that does suit his characteristics.

Katusha have the luxury of having two former winners. With both Rodriguez and Moreno, they are very strong. Riding equally well is Giampaolo Caruso. The Italian is an excellent man to mark any attacks, on the penultimate climb. Rodriguez disappointed on Sunday but was brilliant on the steep slopes of Pais Vasco. He has a great chance of taking a second win, to add to his two 2nd places too. If not at 100%, Moreno is an excellent deputy. This was the tactic in 2013 and Moreno took a brilliant win. Both men know this climb very well and they look to have the strongest team.

Next to be considered is Team Sky and Sergio Henao. 2014 was a wipeout for the Colombian after some “abnormal” values. He’s back and back to his best. Remember that in 2013 he was 5th in the Tour of Poland and 3rd in Pais Vasco and here! He was climbing very well in the Basque Country and Sky have a real chance of taking the big prize. If the race is all together, at the foot of the Muur, it’s difficult not to see him making the podium. He is one of the best climbers in the world and determined to make up for a lost year. At 27 years old, he’s about the right age to make an impact.

Despite my prediction, it was great to see the World Champion win Amstel Gold. He was dropped on the Cauberg but a little bit of luck and a big bit of talent, ensured a great win. He was 5th here in 2013 and 3rd in 2014. Follow that pattern and ….! He wasn’t climbing great in Pais Vasco and he’ll really be put under pressure, by the pure climbers. It’s going to be tough to win here but he cannot be discounted.

Philippe Gilbert won here in 2011, with a stunning attack. He followed that with 3rd in 2012, before losing form in this race. He struggled to 10th, last year, and his form is going the wrong way, in Flèche. BMC were criticised for their tactics, in Amstel. I think this was unfair, as Gilbert was very close to dropping Matthews and winning the race. It’s much more complicated here as he doesn’t seem to have the same kick that he used to. I would like to see BMC send Hermans or Teuns on the attack on the penultimate climb.

There are 7 big favourites for the win:-

Valverde, Rodriguez, Henao, Martin, Kwiatkowski, Moreno and Gilbert.

The outsiders are:-

Simon Yates, Jelle Vanendert, Bauke Mollema, Tom Slagter, Rui Costa and Julian Arredondo.

As we didn’t have a Rodriguez, Moreno or Gilbert tear up the climb, 2014 was a different sort of finale. With Henao and Rodriguez in great form, I think we’ll get a similar to finish to 2011-2013. With 400 metres to go, we’ll know who the winner of the race is.

Looking to get involved on the penultimate climb, should be: Rolland, Felline, Alaphilippe, Clarke, Hermans and Wellens.

Prediction Time

We should get a Mur battle and I can’t see past Joaquim Rodriguez claiming his 2nd title. Henao and Valverde should complete the podium.

David Hunter

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