La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Preview

By David Hunter

Marche en Fammene – Mur de Huy 196km

The stage is set for another battle up the Mur de Huy.

The easiest of the races in the Ardennes, but with a finish that some would struggle to walk up. Some hate it, I love it!

Just like in 2015, the Cote de Cherave, is in the race. It is 1.3km at 8.1%, and comes just 4km before the Huy. Last year, it seemed to seriously soften up the legs of the peloton, meaning a relatively boring climb to the finish. Now that they have seen it in 2015 and in the TDF stage, I’m hoping it makes the race better. It certainly helps the riders who want to attack early.

Early Attackers

If you don’t fancy beating Valverde on the Mur, you need to attack early. Quite a few riders would like to escape on the Cote de Cherave:-

Tim Wellens – always loves to attack, shame his timing is usually poor. Wellens really needs to be a bit more patient and think about when he attacks. He certainly has the power required to accelerate away from the bunch and his team allow him a huge amount of freedom. He should attack on the penultimate climb, but he needs to take a few other riders with him. A solo attack will be very difficult.

Petr Vakoc – enjoying a great spell of form. With Etixx having Alaphilippe and Dan Martin, the Czech champion will be allowed to attack from distance. He is a selfless rider, who won’t think twice about attacking early, so his team get an easier ride.

Adam Yates – came out of the Basque Country in great form. His TT performance was outstanding and I look forward to seeing what he can do here. Already a winner of San Sebastian, he seems destined to challenge in races like this. As we all know, Orica, don’t like to work all day long, they like a man up the road. Yates should be that man!

Roman Kreuziger – takes a while for him to hit form these days, but things look to be moving in the right direction. He lacks a kick, so attacking early is his only option.

Riders for the Mur de Huy

Alejandro Valverde – he’s looking for a record 4th win and you wouldn’t bet against him. After destroying the field in Leon, he arrives in good form. His team are strong, he is strong, the others should be worried.

Dan Martin – the next two races are his main focus for 2016. All winter, he is been training for this. In fact, he didn’t train on any hills longer than 5km, throughout the pre-season. Yes, he was poor in Pais Vasco, but he is a serious contender for the title.

Joaquim Rodriguez – former winner but not looking like his old self. Form had been improving, but his crash in Amstel does concern me. No Moreno or Caruso to help him either.

Sergio Henao – the flying Colombian was climbing really well in Pais Vasco. He likes gradients even steeper than the Mur, but he still has a strong chance. Arrived in similar form in 2015 but disappointed. Sky had a disaster in Amstel, they want a better result here.

Michael Albasini – very good in this race. He loves the steep slopes and always relishes being team leader. Another top 5 is on the cards, maybe another podium.

Jelle Vanendert – another rider that bases his whole season around the Ardennes. Rode for the team on Sunday and starts this race as undisputed team leader. Another who knows every inch of the climb, I hope he goes well.

Julian Alaphilippe – seems to be finding his legs again, great news for us but bad news for his rivals. Can he follow up his 2nd place from 2015?

Star Youngsters

Dylan Teuns – 13th here in 2015. Without a top form Gilbert, BMC, should look towards their young star. He was very strong in Amstel and this race suits him even better.

Pierre Latour – the AG2R rider is on great form, he was 14th in Pais Vasco and 2nd in the Criterium International. The absence of Vuillermoz, thrusts the 22 year old into a protected rider role. He has a good chance of a top 15 finish.

Strength in Numbers

The battle for supremacy always comes down to numbers. Movistar will be expected to shoulder the vast majority of the work. They have Betancur, Erviti, Sutherland, Fernandez, Moreno, Ion Izagirre and Visconti.  The Spaniards really need a big performance from Visconti and Moreno. They have to survive until the very end, to help close down any late attacks.

Etixx look the strongest to me. They have Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc and Jungels. I would expect all four riders to reach the Mur de Huy. The ideal scenario would be to attack with 500m to go and force Valverde into chasing. They need to be patient and wait until Valverde has used all his teammates. At that point, their strength will put Movistar under extreme pressure. However, attacking on the Mur de Huy, requires outstanding legs!

Prediction Time

I like the look of Etixx. To have a number of options inside the final 10km really does give them an advantage. I think that they will set Dan Martin up for an overdue title.

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