Liège – Bastogne – Liège 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

Liege-Ans 253km

The last of the Ardennes races is here and it’s the big one, LBL. The hardest of the three races, thanks to the distance and severity of the climbs. This truly is a monument of cycling.

The early part of the race isn’t too hard but adds to the heaviness of the legs, before the finale. That starts with the Redoute.

It really is a brutal climb, but it’s too far out for a big attack. At this point there is still 30km to go and only foolish riders think they can win from here.

Faucons is where it gets serious. It’s 1.5km at 9.4% and a serious selection can be made. You have to be near the front and attentive to any big name attacks. After so many climbs, the last 500m of this is very hard and strong riders will attack.

With 14km between the last two climbs, we also get plenty of attacks on the flat. In these big races, quite a lot of the winning moves happen just after the climb. This is when really strong riders shine, as the rest of the peloton are tired.

The final classified climb is Cote de Saint-Nicolas, scene of many big attacks.1.2km at 8.6% isn’t the longest or steepest climb of the day, but after 248km, it really hurts.

For me, the run for home is just as difficult as the classified climbs. A long grind of 1.5km at 5%. After such a long day, this finish is torture!

2014 was fairly unique. We got a large bunch approaching the final kilometres. Normally, we get a small group of riders or a solo winner. This year could be different, it all depends on the riders.

With Valverde in such good form, it would be wise for the other teams to try and distance him, or put him under serious pressure. He’s had a brilliant week, with 2nd in Amstel Gold and 1st in Flèche Wallone. The Spaniard is clearly the man to beat. He doesn’t arrive with a great team but they are solid: Quintana, Erviti, Visconti, Jose Herrada, Gorka Izagirre, Rojas and Sutherland. He can win solo and from a small group but will be worried about Kwiatkowski, who has a stronger sprint than him.

Most teams have, at least, two men capable of winning:-

AG2R – Pozzovivo & Bardet

Lotto – Wellens, Gallopin & Vanendert

Giant – Barguil & Dumoulin

Orica – Gerrans, Albasini & Clarke

Astana – Nibali & Fuglsang

Lotto Jumbo – Kelderman

Katusha – Rodriguez, Moreno & Caruso

BMC – Gilbert, Van Garderen, Hermans & Teuns

Etixx – Kwiatkowski & Alaphilippe

Lampre – Rui Costa

Cannondale Garmin – Martin & Slagter

Sky – Henao

Tinkoff – Kreuziger

Trek – Mollema

Europcar – Rolland & Voeckler

The beauty of the race is just how open it can be. With attack after attack, inside the final 30km, anyone of these riders could potentially win. They’ll need some luck along the way, but with Valverde being such a heavy favourite, it helps the cause of the underdog.

All teams will expect Movistar to shoulder the responsibility of chasing. As mentioned, they aren’t at their strongest, this could allow too much time to an attack. We have plenty of attacking riders who will try their luck.

Expect to see a lot of Nibali, Fuglsang, Rolland, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Gallopin and Bardet. This is their type of race and after working hard in other races, they’ll want their moment in the spotlight.

Pozzovivo is fresh from a brilliant win in Trentino. He was very unlucky in 2014, just getting caught in the last corner. An Italian win would be very popular, as Liege is home to thousands of them. To win, he has to arrive solo(lacks a sprint!), but he’s done just that in Catalunya and Trentino this season.

Pierre Rolland is a frequent visitor to LBL and he can’t stop attacking. Sometimes guilty of picking the wrong moment, Rolland is also fresh from a great win, in Leon. His 14th place in Flèche Wallone, was a very good result for him, as the steep slopes don’t suit him. He seems to be finding good form but he’ll need some luck to pick the right move.

Nibali and Fuglsang are a brilliant duo for Astana. When one stops attacking, the other starts. Both have been very active, this week, and this will continue here. Nibali has long dreamed of winning this race but the Dane might be allowed more freedom. Having two chances of winning is certainly better than one. They also need luck. It takes a few riders, from a mix of teams, to go with them. This is required in most breakaways and that’s why they rarely win.

I was disappointed with Tony Gallopin’s sprint in Amstel. He should have been challenging for the podium but finished 6th. He skipped Flèche, in order to be fresh and this is his big race. He’s a very classy rider and a former winner of San Sebastian. The distance doesn’t seem to bother him and he has to be Lotto’s best chance of a result. His fast finish, means he can sit back when Wellens and Vanendert attack, and they will attack! Tim Wellens rides with a lot of guts. His attacking style has won many fans and he will go with around 20km to go. He was unlucky in Flèche and one of these days, his attack is going to stick.

What about the favourites? Apart from Valverde, we have Kwiatkowski, Rodriguez, Dan Martin, Gilbert, Rui Costa and Simon Gerrans.

I still think it’s too early for Gerrans and doubt that Martin will be fully fit after his crash on Wednesday. The same has to be said of Gilbert. I tipped Rodriguez for Amstel and Flèche, but I’ve had enough of his under-performing. That leaves the current World Champion and the past World Champion.

The Pole really disappointed in Flèche, after a wonderful Amstel Gold. He said he was tired and that could be true. He’s still a young man and such a big effort would take it out of you. I’m worried as he was dropped on the Cauberg and on the Mur. Not great signs. In his team, he has one of the sensations of the week, Julian Alaphilippe. The 22 year old was 7th in Amstel and 2nd in Flèche. These results are almost beyond words! If Kwiatkowski is suffering, he could benefit but such a result from a 22 year old rider is very rare, in a monument.

Before I mention Rui Costa, let me talk about the weather. Sunday will see rain, quite a lot. Rui Costa loves a bit of rain, remember when he won the rainbow jersey? He was 4th in Amstel and 28th in Flèche. The slopes of the Mur don’t suit him and I wouldn’t read too much into that result. This is the race that should suit him best. He can handle the distance and is a strong performer in the monuments, almost winning Il Lombardia, in 2014. Lampre have looked strong this week and I expect a big performance from him, maybe even a podium.

The wind is a headwind, on the way out, and a tailwind coming home. Crucially, we have some crosswinds after Redoute, but it’s a tailwind for the finale. This will help the late escapees and offers a good chance of staying away.

Prediction Time

Too much will be expected of Movistar and they won’t play ball. Expect a group of 5-10 riders to escape after Faucons, and they won’t come back. In a tactical finale, I would love to see Pierre Rolland come out on top. This is a long shot, but one I have faith in.

David Hunter

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