Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2019 Preview

By David Hunter

Liège – Liège 256km

Time for another monument.

Always a difficult race to win, the organisers have decided to spice things up a little, by changing the end of the race. Out goes the final climb, Saint-Nicolas, and the grind up to the finishing line in Ans. Instead, the final climb of the race is Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons, a much harder effort than Saint-Nicolas.

The other difference is that we now have 13km from the final climb to the finish, which is back in Liège. Will the change encourage riders to attack from further out? Will the 13km of flat mean we get a sprint finish? At this point, no one knows how this will impact the race, but it’s clear that the climbers can no longer wait until the end of the race; they must attack before then. We’ll have to see if that means we see big moves on la Redoute, Forges or Faucons.

Weather

Wet and cold, which will increase the difficulty of the race. Bad weather usually makes this a very selective day.

Climbs

La Redoute starts the finale of the race. It is long and difficult, but rarely sees any big attacks. The organisers will hope that the change of route will encourage attacks on this hill.

Just 4km later, the peloton head up Cote des Forges, which is 1.1km at 8.4%. It is tough enough for some to be dropped, but isn’t really long enough for the main riders to do anything.

Roche-aux-Faucons is now the final climb of the day. It is a devilish little hill, with lots of ramps over 10%. We always see moves here, but a large group of favourites are usually together at the top. This could all change this year, as it’s the final chance for the climbers to make a difference.

Just over the top of the official climb, the road kicks up again. This is the last uphill section of the day, despite being 1.8km at 5%, gaps can still be created. From the top, there is 12.6km remaining.

Tactics

Over to Astana. Yet again, they arrive with the strongest team, one that will make the racing very difficult. In Amstel Gold, they set a furious pace for much of the early stages of the race, this eliminated many riders before the finale was even close. To take advantage of their superiority, this is a tactic I expect to see them use again.

The idea is to eliminate as many domestiques as possible, meaning that there is no one left to chase when their leaders fire up the road. This almost worked in Amstel Gold, they’ll be happy that Van Der Poel isn’t racing here! Astana will be fully aware of their big problem, Fuglsang doesn’t have much of a sprint. This new finish isn’t great for him, can he arrive at the finish solo? That certainly won’t be easy. Can he arrive with a group of slower finishers? That is very unlikely.

What about the other teams? QuickStep arrive with a strong team, one that will be able to help Alaphilippe deep into the race. Bora and Lotto-Soudal have good teams, but lack a big hitter. It should be a battle between Astana and QuickStep for control of this race, but that doesn’t mean other teams can’t be successful.

Contenders

Julian Alaphilippe – Milan-Sanremo was his first monument, he starts as the favourite to take another one. The Frenchman is enjoying a wonderful period of victories, the rest of the field are struggling to keep up. He really is the full package; a brilliant climber and fast finisher. This is what sets him apart from his rivals and why he’s so hard to beat. QuickStep have a strong team to support him, but there is a lot of pressure on his shoulders. The new finish looks great for him, he has the fastest sprint of the climbers. Alaphilippe will hope that he can move clear on the final climb, but only with one other rider. If we have a group of five riders, the others will try and force Alaphilippe into doing all of the work, which he won’t like.

Jakob Fuglsang – in the form of his life. Just pipped to the line in Amstel Gold, then he pushed Alaphilippe all the way in Flèche Wallonne. The Dane will dearly hope that he can take the win his form deserves, so will his team. Astana will try and repeat their performance in Amstel and hope to get their captain in the race winning move. It will then be over to him to see if he can convert this chance; can he finally beat Alaphilippe?

Adam Yates – crashed out on Wednesday, but it didn’t look too bad. Yates has the form to challenge the big two, but we’ll have to see how he responds to hitting the deck in Flèche. He will love the look of the climbs, very few can match him above 10%, but the flat finish isn’t great news for him.

Michal Kwiatkowski – good in Amstel, not so good in Flèche, but that race isn’t ideal for him. This long and demanding day is perfect for his characteristics, he won’t be underestimated by his rivals. The former world champion is a magnificent cyclist, he has a great chance of winning his second monument.

Michael Matthews – the only “sprinter” capable of surviving to the end. The flat finish is great news for him, but making this race end in a sprint isn’t going to be easy. Sunweb have a solid team, but a lot will depend on Tom Dumoulin. After a period at altitude, he’s here to see what he can do. I think the best chance the team have is for him to ride as a domestique and try to make the race end in a small sprint.

Simon Clarke – the form pick. The Aussie has enjoyed a brilliant 2019, looking strong in many races. He was 2nd in Amstel, so the legs are still good. He packs a fast sprint and another big win for EF would be incredible.

Romain Bardet – if he’s going to win a monument, it will be this one. The Frenchman looked quite good last week, he’ll arrive with confidence and hope to benefit from a hard race. The change of route makes it harder for him to win, but not impossible.

Max Schachmann – came out of the Basque Country with amazing form, but hasn’t really gone close in the Ardennes. Okay, he did manage to finish 5th in both races, but you know what I mean. Bora have a good squad to support their German star, with Konrad, McCarthy and Formolo expected to go deep into this race. He has a fast sprint, so he won’t be sacred of taking a few riders to the line, but can he take a big win?

Vincenzo Nibali – he looked in great form during the Tour of the Alps. This is a race he’s threatened in, but without really looking like winning. The shark has something most riders don’t have, a track record in winning monuments. Although not one of the big favourites, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him netting another monument win and cementing his place in cycling history.

Bjorg Lambrecht – the youngster has really impressed this week. Coming into this race, I think he’s still a little young to be viewed as a serious challenger. Lotto will hope I’m wrong, he looks their best option with Wellens struggling for form.

Alessandro De Marchi – not a rider I would usually consider for a race of the stature, but the Italian is showing some impressive form. He was active in Amstel Gold, finishing in 7th place, before ending Flèche in 21st. He’ll use his experience and try to anticipate the big moves by getting up the road a little early. Winning is unlikely, but you just never know.

Yes, I know I didn’t mention Valverde!

Prediction Time

The rain and cold will turn this into a horrible race. I’m unsure the change of route will make a big difference; I think the weather will be doing all the damage. With a small group approaching the final climbs, I expect the winning move to go on Faucons. When the dust settles, Jakob Fuglsang will get a well-deserved victory.

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David Hunter

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