Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 3 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

As expected the second day of the race saw a lot of crosswind action that kicked off right at the start of the day. Many times splits came in the peloton, but a surprisingly big group managed to survive off the front for the battle for the win, where despite the best efforts of Stefan Bissegger, Quick-Step brought it back to a sprint where, although surprised, Fabio Jakobsen was the fastest in the sprint beating van Aert, and Laporte who finished third.

Positive: Jakobsen taking another strong win. All GC contenders who survived in the front group have had a good day, seeing some rivals loose important time.

Negative: Sam Bennett in the peloton but completely missing out the sprint. De la Cruz, Ion Izagirre, Martin, Almeida, McNulty, Mollema, Schachmann, Wout Poels and David Gaudu between the riders who lost time. Many of them, out of GC contention.

The Route

Stage three is another hilly one but as the opening day, it is one that is likely to end in a sprint, only with different protagonists perhaps as not all riders will enjoy the ascending.

The long Côte de Peyroux will summit with 22.5Km to go and is the longest climb of the day, split into two halves essentially and will put some sprinters into difficulty. Afterwards, a small hilltop with 7 kilometers to go will do some more damage, 2.5Km at 3.3%, and a fast descent will lead the riders on the bottom of what some would call bottom of the final climb. However it isn’t an actual climb, but it’s not pure sprinter territory.

Although the gradients don’t bite they burn, the final 1.5Km will have over 3% of average gradient and it only get steeper as the riders get close to the line. It’s fully straightforward, will not be an easy finale at all, with the puncheurs having a chance aswell.

The Weather

The wind will once again be present, however from the wrong direction to cause differences today. It won’t be strong, but coming from the northwest will see a headwind for most of the day. In the final loop there may well be some dangerous moments but I think all teams will be prepared, the final sprint should be covered.

Breakaway chances: 10%

The day is not bad for a breakaway, but the wind will make it very hard for anyone to go off early and succeed.

Tactics, we should expect some teams, the likes of Cofidis and even Jumbo for sure to try and make it quite complicated in the early climbs. I don’t think we will see, or it’s unlikely at least, to have sprinters distanced before the final, however I do believe many will not have the legs to contest the sprint.

The Favourites

Wout van Aert – Perfect combination of form, climbing legs and a sprint. Both he and Laporte are big favourites, if they work together for sure the Belgian can get the win for himself here.

Fabio Jakobsen – The best sprinter today by far, however tomorrow is not an ideal day for him. Quick-Step will surely protect him and ride smart, but I don’t know if he can climb well enough to have fresh legs into the sprint where he’ll need a brutal maximum power.

Jasper Philipsen – He’s missed the echelons today which was far from ideal. Here it’ll probably be his last chance to go for a win, so the pressure will be on. I think he can be there at the end, on the plus side he did not spend that much energy today which can be beneficial.

Sam Bennett – It was far from perfect for him today. He made the splits, but lacked the legs in the end. On his best day he can do these ascents quite well, BORA have the team to put him up there for the win too.

The likes of Mads Pedersen, Luka Mezgec, Bryan Coquard and Juan Sebastián Molano are also great calls in such a finale, the latter two specially as they preferencially like the small uphill finishes. The likes of Ivan Cortina, Biniam Ghirmay and who knows, Ethan Hayter – if he leaves the tail of the peloton – should also be capable of surprising in a finale like this.

The likes of Dylan Groenewegen or Cees Bol, alongside Jakobsen aswell as I have mentioned, should not be fans of this finale. Is it a Dutch thing?

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#43 Omar Fraile – We have two goals for today, but the main is really to protect Adam in case someone tries to create differences in the wind once again. That isn’t your direct responsibility though, Luke and Dylan will do that work. You will stay in front at the end, the finale isn’t too bad for you actually, but ideally we can convince Ethan to sprint today and he’ll want to take the win, if so you will help leading him out, finale suits him very well.

#105 Mads Pedersen – We have another chance to go for the win Mads, this sprint wasn’t too good as your chain jumped, but we can make up for it tomorrow! It won’t be easy, but guys like Fabio will suffer, and you just have to take your sprinter experience to be able to save more energy in comparison to the Jumbo guys. If we get the right mix and luck, then you can win this.

#73 Stefan Küng – Nothing to crazy today Stefan. David is out of GC, and you have got a time-trial on the next day, so just make sure that at the max you just stay safe in the peloton, don’t hit the wind. 

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐WV.Aert, Philipsen

⭐⭐Jakobsen, S.Bennett, M.Pedersen, Coquard

⭐Molano, Cortina, Ghirmay, Hayter, Groenewegen, Mezgec, Laporte

I think this time Wout van Aert will take the win. He has ridden in support of his teammates on the opening day slightly, and today he just missed out because of Jakobsen. Tomorrow with the climbs he will be much more confortable, and if Laporte does focus on a leadout than Jumbo have big chances to win.

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