Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 4 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was not an easy day at Paris-Nice today, although the wind gave truce to the peloton, the final hilly section proved too difficult for some sprinters as it was a slightly reduced peloton heading towards the non-technical, slightly uphill finale. Race leader Christophe Laporte crashed at the end, but remained in yellow, but in the sprint Trek leadout Mads Pedersen perfectly for the win. The Dane launched his sprint very early but nevertheless had the power to keep a confortable lead until the end, beating Bryan Coquard and Wout van Aert. 

Positive: Pedersen with an impressive sprint, and an important win. 

Negative: Laporte hitting the deck in the finale, although damage shouldn’t be too meaningful, and he’s likely to loose the yellow jersey tomorrow. Jakobsen and Groenewegen, as expected, not capable of making it to the final kilometers in the peloton.

The Route 

The race’s individual time-trial is placed on the fourth day and it is set to open up the GC before the mountains. It is a short one, at just over 13 kilometers, however it is a time-trial that can create some differences specially as it is far from flat. 

Early on, exiting Domérat, 1.2Km at 4.6%, and the roads from there on are almost always either slightly climbing or descending. It’s a tricky time-trial to pace well, there are sections where the riders will be able to freewheel and others where they need to push well above their comfort zone to keep the speed. Unanimously, likely most will catch their breath before the final dash to the line which will see the riders climb 800 meters at 7% up to the finish. 

The Weather 

A small southern breeze. It will make for a small headwind at the two first thirds of the route, but it should be nothing meaningful. 

The Favourites

Wout van Aert – He finished on the podium in every stage so far and it is expected that he’ll repeat it. Competition is hard, but he’s got the best mix of climbing and time-trialing. A lot will come down to how they feel in the day though, van Aert will want yellow and a first stage win in France.

Primoz Roglic – He never seems to be suffering, Roglic seems to have the form and if so, he’ll be a main contender to take this stage as he’ll enjoy the climbing aspect of the time-trial. 

Stefan Bissegger – He has not been saving his legs, but Bissegger is a great time-trialist in short efforts. Will the climbing suit him though? I wouldn’t say so, but he’s definitely got the form to fly through them. 

Stefan Küng – At the Algarve he didn’t give the best indications in a rolling course. However, Küng has got good form and he’s as experienced of a time-trialist as any rider in the peloton. He will know how to make this effort, and can benefit from the sublime climbing skills he’s been showing these past few months. 

Rohan Dennis – Inconsistent is the best word to describe him. This isn’t a good course from him, but on his best day he can take a win, he saved himself today so he’s clearly eyeing a strong performance and with Jumbo infrastructure he’ll definitely have their chances. 

There will be some more riders ambitioning a strong result in this stage. For the overall classification it will be very important to perform. Some riders will love the climbing aspect to the course and can thrive from it, riders like João Almeida, Brandon McNulty, Pierre Latour, Ion Izagirre, Adam Yates can surely surprise and be up for the fight in the first places. Some of these of course, would not be a big surprise. 

As for those who will be looking to the faster sections to make up their time, and hoping the ascents don’t have as much effect in the final times you will see the likes of Soren Kragh Andersen who was on the attack quite a lot today, or Christophe Laporte who’s crashed at the finale. These will likely not have their best legs though, but the likes of Ethan Hayter, Dylan van Baarle, Yves Lampaert and Max Walscheid will all be eyeing a good result surely.  

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#113 Yves Lampaert – Right then Yves, it’s not exactly a great route for you but it’s a day to test the legs, the classics are just outside the door! You can finish in the Top10 for sure here, the TT won’t be easy at all, the crucial thought is you will have to go into the limit on all three ascents. Set off full-speed right away in the first section, it will be the hardest and differences can be made. Recon the track properly, there will be fast descent sections where you must keep all your speed, the ascents aren’t long so you can use your explosiveness no doubt. Crucial point, take a few seconds to breathe deeply in that final descent, you will have the opportunity, the final hilltop is a top-to-bottom final effort aswell. 

#116 Zdenek Stybar – Take it easy Zdenek, we may have a breakaway attempt in a few days, but today is one to rest the legs. 

#133 Ivan Cortina – Don’t take it hard Ivan, there are a few stages that suit you well, we’ll be focusing on breakays in the next few days. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐WV.Aert, Roglic, Bissegger ⭐⭐Küng, Dennis, McNulty ⭐ Almeida, Latour, A.Yates, Laporte, Van Baarle, Hayter 

I think this will be a brilliant battle for the stage win, with a mix of stage-racers and pure time-trialists making for a balance which will be complicated to resolve. I will go with Primoz Roglic, he looks to have the form, and this kind of uphill sections will be really good for his explosivity. 

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