Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 5 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Jumbo – Visma have had no mercy once again as they took an incredible one-two-three swarm at Paris-Nice. Today’s TT made meaningful differences for the GC and the Dutch team again thrived, taking the win with Wout van Aert, as Primoz Roglic and Rohan Dennis filled the podium.  

Positive: Van Aert taking the win and the lead of the race, and in all honesty all of Jumbo-Visma have thrived today. Simon Yates with a great time, a good surprise and in good position for the overall.  

Negative: After some good days, Quintana lost 1:15 to Roglic today, definitely more than the expected. 

The Route

Perhaps the most interesting day of the race, as it comes right after the time-trial and will be the first day where the GC contenders will become fully clear. On the menu are 3400 meters of climbing and they are well spread out throughout the day, especially as early on the Croix de Chambouret may be a Launchpad for a strong breakaway. The riders will face some climbing later on, but it will be in the final two climbs where things will kick off. 

Col de la Mure, 33 kilometers to go. In normal circumstances, this is a climb where the main favourites can attack and create differences. Will this happen though?

The final climb up to Saint-Vincent-de-Durfort sees an intermediate sprint halfway up so action is almost certain. It’s not a hard climb but it comes after a hard day, the shallow gradients may come to the disadvantage of some lightweight climbers. It summits with 10 kilometers to go. 

There will be some kilometers of slightly technical descent until the final 4 kilometers where the ondulating roads will lead the riders into Saint-Sauveur-de-Montagut.

The Weather

There’s a significant possibility of raining affecting the stage, albeit not strong rain. Additionally there will be moderate wind coming from the south. Although it will be hidden throughout much of the route due to the mountains of the massif central, it may provide a tailwind for the Col de la Mure, and a headwind for the final hilltop, after a generally cross/headwind trend throughout the day. 

Breakaway chances: 65%

It will be a long day on the bike. The early ascent will be ideal for a strong group to go up the road and at this point of the race several quality climbers have been pushed out of the GC contention. With the possibility of wet roads and very bad weather, I don’t see many GC favourites ready to risk it all. Jumbo have gotten several stage wins and want an easy race to preserve van Aert as a GC contender so surely they will not oppose a breakaway going off with the stage, also to demotivate attacks at the end. 

On the opposite side, the Col de la Mure is hard, and there are GC riders with time they want to take back. If the race kicks off there, still quite far from the finish, it will not be easy for a breakaway to succeed. 

The Favourites 

Primoz Roglic – Jumbo will race defensively, Roglic is going to have to cover all moves whilst van Aert will likely TT his way up the final climbs if they’re attacked hard. Roglic has the sprint and will not have to work, he’s in a great position at the time being, without the yellow jersey on his back at the same time. 

Wout van Aert – If the GC riders do go for the stage win, there is a good chance van Aert can survive the Col de la Mure. The final hilltop will be perfect for him, Jumbo won’t struggle to control the race at that point, and between the stage-racers van Aert would not have a match in a sprint. 

Brandon McNulty & João Almeida – With both McNulty and Almeida having a bad start to the race in the crosswinds, I would not be surprised to see them on the attack here. They have nothing to loose realistically, the stage can go for a breakaway and the American specially will have complete freedom to do his own thing.  

Groupama – FDJ – How they will be feeling is the grand question, as crashes have affected the team harshly on stage two. This will indeed make a difference, but on paper Groupama are in a great position to go for a stage win tomorrow, as all David Gaudu, Valentin Madouas and Michael Storer have lost time and will not be covered by the GC contenders. All quality climbers, with a good possibility of succeeding if they go on the attack. 

Further riders have lost some time and will have an opportunity. Some, like Bauke Mollema and Guillaume Martin will be under eye as the gap isn’t that big, but they are the type of rider that should thrive in such a day. Matteo Jorgenson, Jan Polanc, Rein Taaramae, Gino Mader, Lucas Hamilton, Franck Bonnamour and Movistar duo of Gorka Izagirre and Gregor Muhlberger also climb quite well and have a chance to take a very important win. 

In case the breakaway would be controlled, for sure a GC fight breaking out is possible and we may see the likes of Simon Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Adam Yates, Daniel Martínez, Nairo Quintana and Jack Haig all play a role In the finale, possibly sneak in for a win. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#24 Christophe Laporte – You have done a brilliant race so far Christophe, you’re ready for the classics and I hope the motivation is up with all you’ve had this week! Now we start the second half of the race, we have Wout and Primoz in prime position and we want to keep it. Today it’s unlikely you will need to have to do much work, however we will be at the head of the peloton all day long so you will be there to protect them. Take the descents safe, Primoz has a tendency to crash, make sure risks aren’t taken and let the break go as we want a race as conservative as possible. 

#185 Rein Taaramae – It’s breakaway day Rein! We have a plan, today is the best suited day for you and it is quite possible that a group will make it to the finish. You have to be in it, early in the day attack at the first big climb, until then we will put some guys pacing to control any groups getting away, I do not want you spending energy on flat roads. Ideally you will make the front group over the climb, and then we will hope the group isn’t too strong, and at the penultimate climb is where differences must be made. Full-out effort there, hopefully you can be in front and solo your way into the win, it’s up and down until the finish. If you’re in a group, chances are you won’t win in a sprint so you have to be opportunist and aggressive. 

#95 Oliver Naesen – Not a day to push hard Oli. Stage 6 is for you to attack hard, here you rest to make sure you have good legs. The day shouldn’t be too hard so stay alongside Aurelien and Clement who will be testing their legs, possibly go for the GC. When the final two climbs start just take it easy, there won’t be anything for you to do there specifically. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐McNulty, Madouas ⭐⭐Roglic, WV.Aert, Mollema, Polanc ⭐Almeida, Storer, Gaudu, G.Martin, Jorgenson, Taaramae, Mader, Bonnamour, G.Izagirre 

I believe a breakaway win is incoming and Brandon McNulty will take it. The day is well suited to him, he’s got the form and the freedom, all he needs is the willpower and some luck. 

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