Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 7 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a day for the breakaway on paper, however with relative ease the peloton controlled the early group of escapees. However, little did they know they’d have to chase one sole rider in the final kilometers that would end up taking the win. Mathieu Burgaudeau had shown his potential in the last month in France, and today capitalized on his form to take his first win as a professional, attacking in the final hilltop and holding off the peloton for a brilliant win. Mads Pedersen and Wout van Aert almost came to his wheel in the final sprint, but would have to settle for second and third.

Positive: Burgaudeau taking a brilliant win, and complementing TotalEnergie’s race which currently see Pierre Latour in third.

Negative: Nothing to note.

The Route

The queen stage. On stage 7 only one thing will matter and that is how the riders will fare up the final climb, as Paris-Nice returns to the Col de Turini, tackling it through it’s West side, arguably quite hard.

The stage is short and relatively easy, with the exception of an 8.2Km climb at 5% early on. It’s a one-effort stage essentially though, I expect incredibly fast times up the final ascent where everything will be decided.

15.3 kilometers at 7.2%, not brutal but more than enough to make real differences. It’s a very constant climb, although it must be said the first 20% of the climb are slightly below average, making the final 80% a little harder than the average gradient tells us. It is a climb stacked with hairpins, ideal for the pure climbers to accelerate and make their differences where needed.

The Weather

A cold cloudy day. Taking into consideration that there were real concerns the summit finish could not be done, I’d say it’s actually good weather the riders have got here. There will be strong eastern wind at the start, but it should largely covered by the mountains of the Alpes Maritimes. At the finish there shouldn’t be wind, temperatures to reach 0 degrees but not into negative or snowing territory.

Breakaway chances: 10%

Jumbo-Visma won’t likely have much of an interest to chase, but only if no-one actually takes the race into their hands can a breakaway succeed, as the profile is not hard and the stage is short, an easy day to control on paper.

A GC fight will take place up the final climb, and whoever is in the break will need at least some minutes to survive. I expect Arkea and INEOS to have interest in chasing throughout the day aswell as making the final climb hard from the start, it’s the hardest day of the race and if they hope to win the race or climb up the GC they need a very hard pace to make differences.

The Favourites

Primoz Roglic – He’s the man to beat, the one everyone will be eyeing to take time on. Roglic, in normal conditions, shouldn’t have much problem up the final climb, specially as it’s steep and constant, hence tactical play will not be easy as W/Kg will be the most important. Even if Jumbo can’t provide the world-class support he’s used to, with van Aert, Kruijswijk and Dennis Roglic should have company at the very least for half of the climb.

Adam Yates & Daniel Martínez – Sitting in fourth and sixth in the GC they have everything to win by attacking. Both are very strong climbers, coming in with good form into the race and have each other to play tactical if possible. Ineos are in a good position, and they will want to get inside the podium and also near Roglic at the end of the day, besides a prestigious stage win.

Simon Yates – He’s been looking very good so far, tomorrow is a climb where he can do some serious damage and realistically jump into the race lead if Roglic has a bad day

Nairo Quintana – Nairo has started off his season strong in France. In 2020 he followed those results with a dominant win in Paris-Nice’s mountain stage and he’ll be looking to replicate it. The competition will be harder, but Quintana likes the cold and the brutal ascents like tomorrow’s. Aditionally he has points to conquer for his team, which will be of extra motivation.

Aleksandr Vlasov – Vlasov won’t have any support in the mountains so he’ll have to rely on other teams to make the race. He’s sitting fifth in the GC and will like the long constant climb, doesn’t have the responsibility to attack so he can take advantage of that situation.

The GC fight will be the priority on this day. There are few riders who will want to race conservatively up Turini, I think the level is inferior but you could theorize Roglic could find in Pierre Latour an ally, as the TotalEnergies would be quite happy with a place in the final podium, where he currently sits in.

Jack Haig and Ion Izagirre are also within the Top10 and will be looking to climb up the GC, both having a long ascent that suits their skills. João Almeida is also expected to be up there, albeit down in the GC, like Guillaume Martin who appears to have strong form and should be between the big favourites on the final ascent.

Although unlikely, if some climbers manage to get in the breakaway and start the final climb with some lead they can surely go for the stage win aswell. Brandon McNulty has already won a stage but he’s a fair call, and you could add the likes of David Gaudu, Quentin Pacher and Michael Storer from Groupama, Valentin Madouas and Harm Vanhoucke who will be fighting for the KOM classification, Wout Poels and Gregor Muhlberger.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#157 Harm Vanhoucke – The KOM jersey is the goal Harm and we have to put our attention in it. The guys should help you early in the day to get in the breakaway, there is an early climb where you can get early points. If the breakaway chances are solid I’ll tell you to go forward at the time, but if the gap isn’t big you will then come back to the peloton, the final stage is where the real points are and you need to save your legs to attack it again.

#182 Dimitri Claeys – No real ambitions here, you can think about yourself and how the best aproach the classics is. If you want to put in some efforts you can go for the breakaway, you should be able to get to the final climb with some lead over the peloton. If you want to stay with the peloton that’s fine too, I think the guys should all be saving themselves for the final day.

#134 Gorka Izagirre – No need to burn yourself too much Gorka, you can perhaps go for a breakaway on the final day but here’s it’s GC territory, and the stage is short it’s very hard for any escapee group to succeed. Stay with the guys, Matteo is going for the GC, but when the final climb starts you can relax and take it easy to the finish.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Roglic, A.Yates, Quintana

⭐⭐D.Martínez, Vlasov

⭐G.Martin, Haig, Latour, Almeida, McNulty, Gaudu, Poels

I will go with Daniel Martínez for the stage win. INEOS have the right setup to attack the stage, Martinez showed great form in the Algarve and I expect more of the same here.

Zweeler is a fantasy sports game that includes many sports and cycling is no exception. I ask that you check it out, if you register with the link below you will not only be joining an exciting game but will also be personally supporting me and my work, and allow me to make more content for you!

Tomorrow’s race has prizes of at least €250 and an entry fee of only €5. Make good use of your knowledge!

https://zweeler.com/game/cycling/FantasyParisNice2022stage7/main.php?ref=790

Rúben SilvaFollow us on Twitter and InstagramJoin us on facebook: Ciclismo Internacional

Copyright © 2012-2022 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved