Paris-Nice 2022 – Stage 8 Preview
By @EchelonsHub
The queen stage promised spectacle and delivered, as the race’s top climbers battled on the slopes of the Col de Turini for the stage win and overall classification. Coming out on top, for both, was Primoz Roglic who had a dominant performance and kept his yellow jersey safe, taking the win in a final sprint beating Daniel Martinez and Simon Yates, after resisting the attacks of INEOS and BikeExchange.
Positive: Roglic taking the win and a big step for the GC win.
Negative: Vlasov and Latour with less good performances, both falling some places in the GC and now sit far from the podium.
The Route
The classical final Nice stage. However, with a change this year that is very much to my liking. It’s only 115 kilometers of very intense racing, up and down the hills of the Alpes Maritimes. A day where chaos usually reigns, with GC raid succeeding, very strong breakaways flying off with wins, understandable with a week of fatigue in the legs.
After a small flat section, the Côtes de Levens, Chateauneuf and Berres-les-Alpes will set things up, dictate order into the race as a breakaway will set off and whoever has or wants to chase becomes ideal. It will be towards the final two climbs that things will get interesting.
It may not look like a beast but the Montee de Peille has been the location of some deadly attacks in the last few years, specifically the iconic attacks of Alberto Contador against Team Sky. Will similar happen this year? Unlikely as the final climb is now capable of making differences, however the stinging hairpins of Peille will still make for a very explosive ascent which may provide fertile soil for another raid.
The Col d’Èze is a familiar sight, however this year the organizers actually will have the riders go up one of it’s hard vertents. 6Km at 7.7%, but the profile shows a different story. In it’s middle there is a 1.3Km section at 11.5% and as you can see the gradients go above that. It will make for a very explosive ascent where differences can indeed be made, and summits with 15.5 kilometers to go.
From there on the traditional fast descent into Nice and the flat finish at the Promenade des Anglais will be the location for the end of what should be an exciting stage and race.
The Weather
Very bad weather weekend, as the strong eastern wind procedes. It’ll be rather hidden during the day so I wouldn’t expect massive differences in terms of racing from it, I would expect more from the rough weather that’s expected, alongside likely rain that will be sure to make the descents quite dangerous.
Breakaway chances: 65%
The chances are very good. Usually, the final day of Paris-Nice is one for the breakaway as most of the climbing is early on in the day. Last day of a high-level WT race means lots of very good climbers having freedom, making the differences early on and carry enough time to resist the peloton’s chase at the end.
The rain will make it more advantageous, the GC riders will have to take less risks as they avoid crashing, it also is sure to make some more reluctant to attack.
However, the final ascent of the Col d’Èze is quite harder than usual this year, and it’s an ascent where time can be made up, that’s the main reason why it’s possible to see one of the GC riders taking the win at the end of the day. Either ways it’ll be brutal.
The Favourites
INEOS – With a full team, Daniel Martinez and Adam Yates, INEOS are the team that have the responsibility to attack. Luckily for them, it’s a day that’s quite favourable for those looking to make a move early on. The British team have the quality and are no strangers to trying to raid the race.
Primoz Roglic – Memories of last year will arise. Jumbo have a strong team, but both van Aert and Kruijswijk have looked inferior to their normal level, and in such a stage it can be very dangerous for Roglic if something happens or if he’s raided. If he gets over the descents safely, surely he’ll have the legs to control the race well in the ascents, if nothing happens early on.
Simon Yates – Very astute rider, but most importantly he’s not afraid to attack in unexpected moments. It can be a valuable asset to this stage if it explodes early on, he can also surely take advantage of Jumbo and Roglic’s work.
Nairo Quintana – He’s flown in a very similar stage at Haut Var in February in the roads of the region. Honestly, Quintana looked quite good today, and he’ll love the explosive kind of racing that’s expected for tomorrow. He’s far enough on the GC that Roglic will let him go but close enough that he can create serious damage.
UAE – They have serious power. João Almeida is sitting tenth, but the rainy weather is unlikely to be good for him. However Brandon McNulty has some serious chances to make something, if he wants of course, as he’s already taken a stage win this week. However they should have the freedom and the climbing legs to hit the breakaway and take a win, no doubt.
The likes of David de la Cruz, Guillaume Martin, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Mauri Vansevenant, Bauke Mollema and Andreas Leknessund all sit just outside the Top10 and with good reason, they’re all quality climbers and should have the space to attack the race early on and have very little to loose.
Outside of GC ambitions the likes of Wout Poels, Quentin Pacher, Gregor Muhlberger and Gorka Izagirre are all reasonable cards for a possible stage win. A lot can happen in such a day, tactics can be weird aswell, surprises are fully possible.
Inside The Bus
This morning I talk to…
#47 Dylan van Baarle – We have to attack Dylan. Daniel and Adam have been doing a good race, but we can do better than third and fourth! We’re one of the few teams that will go in whole to the stage, the start is hard but rolling, perfect for you and for some more of the guys. We will be raiding the race, hard, no conservative racing. Adam will be trying to explode the race from early on and ideally join you in front, perhaps in the first or second climb. We have to make it very hard for Jumbo and we have the numbers for it, it’s a day perfect for raiding and you will have a very important role, so we need you on your best legs.
#96 Aurélien Paret-Peintre – Aurelien you’re sitting in a good position where you can go up the GC, maybe Top10 if you find yourself in the breakaway. It’ll be raining and it’s a roller-coaster day, plus the guys in the lower Top10 won’t be working to prevent you from jumping up so you can try. I also expect the win to be in front, you only have Damien and Dorian but they’ll be with you, ideally we’d start moving at the start of the first climb not to spend unnecessary energy. Don’t be afraid to go deep early, it’s a short stage and there are many descents, it can be a time-trial if you ambition going up the GC.
#124 Lucas Hamilton – The priority in the day is to protect Simon. You haven’t had the best legs so the goal is to make sure you make it to the final climb with him, there he’ll do his thing. We have to be precise, and not go crazy to risk our second place.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐McNulty, Poels, Vansevenant
⭐⭐Roglic, Martínez, A.Yates, S.Yates, Almeida
⭐Quintana, De la Cruz, G.Martin, Paret-Peintre, Mollema, Pacher, Muhlberger, G.Izagirre
I don’t think it’s a hot take, Brandon McNulty absolutely has the legs to take a second stage win. My question was if he wants, but today he went all-out for no reason, so the American is looking for results, here for sure he’ll be chasing another stage win and he’ll have the freedom to attack early on and take a second breakaway win home.
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