Paris Roubaix 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

Compiegne – Roubaix 253km

It’s here, the 113th edition of the Hell of the North. We are in for a treat! The wind is a cross/tailwind for most of race, but not too strong.

People who read my previews are proper cycling people, so I won’t bore you with stuff you already know. The race has three, 5 star sectors: Arnberg Forest, Mons-en-Pevele and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre. This is where the fun happens!

Without Cancellara and Boonen, the race opens itself up to many. They’ve won 5 of the last 7 races, so we will probably get a new winner of the race. I like that!

All the talk is of Wiggins and his fancy, new bike. He did well in 2014 but I just can’t see him winning. Fairytales rarely happen in pro cycling. He hasn’t shown any form in the important build-up races. Team Sky should really be concentrating on Geraint Thomas.

The previous races are very important, none more than E3. In the last 6 years, the winner of PR was 1st or 2nd in E3. Apart from Van Summeren, he broke the mold! In those 6 years, the winner of Flanders has also won here, 3 times. However, they also won E3! Harelbeke is the most important race to indicate Roubaix form.

That means we should begin by looking at Geraint Thomas and Zdenek Stybar.

Thomas started the Classics campaign in brilliant form but looked tired in Flanders. He attacked on the Kwaremont but couldn’t bridge the gap to the leading two. This is a massive sign that his form is not where it was.

Stybar easily followed him in Flanders. Only circumstances have stopped him from winning more this season. He’s looked incredibly comfortable in most races and I think he’s still in good form. He looks the best option for Etixx, that’s saying something considering their wealth of talent.

In Paris-Roubaix fashion, I have starred the riders:-

5 stars – Kristoff, Sagan, Terpstra, Stybar and Thomas.

4 – GVA, Degenkolb, Wiggins, Vanmarcke and Boom.

3 – Greipel, Stannard, Roelandts, Demare and Vandenbergh.

Outsiders – Benoot, Paolini, Bak, Hayman, Keukeleire, Vanbilsen, Westra, Elmiger and Oss.

Kristoff is winning everything just now. He has the form, he has the drive, he has a big chance of winning. However, all the effort of the recent weeks must be starting to show. Can he produce one last effort on Sunday?

Terpstra must be sick of 2nd place! That’s Omloop, Gent-Wevelgem and Flanders. No one can argue with his form and he’s been unlucky in some of those races. It takes a special rider to defend this title, but he is special. Etixx have a number of options, he could benefit from this, or suffer? It really comes down to the moment.

Peter Sagan is getting better! 4th in Flanders shouldn’t be sniffed at and his extra muscle is going to help here. He was at his attacking best in 2014 and I would love to see him riding a similar race. His attack on the Paterberg(in Flanders) impressed me and I think people writing him off are going to be surprised. He has lacked 5% in the previous races but I think he might have found it. Without Cancellara to chase him down, the Slovak has a great chance of success.

Greg Van Avermaet has had a strong season. However, I don’t think he’s as good as the others on these cobbles. I might regret that comment!

Degenkolb won MSR and has performed well here in the past. No one wants to take him to the line, so if he makes the selection, expect a Terpstra attack, in the closing kilometres. It’s hard for him to win this race.

Lars Boom looks to have managed his form well. I sense he’s peaking for this race and we all remember his win in the 2014 Tour de France. If we get a very tactical race, he will benefit. A fast finisher, he would do well if we are left with a small group. Don’t count him out!

If Vanmarcke had shown similar form to previous years, he would be the favourite for the race. The problem is his form, it’s dipping. In the Tour of Flanders, he was dropped on the Taiienberg, not a great sign. He has finished 2nd and 4th here before and will hope that the surroundings has an effect on his performance.

It would take something special for an outsider to win, but it is possible. Tiesj Benoot, might only be 21, but his form is ridiculous just now. If he gets in the right break, he could take one of the biggest wins in recent history.

Prediction Time

Le Carrefour de l’Arbre, will be the definitive point in the race. Etixx should have the strongest hand as Stybar, Terpstra and Vandenbergh will all be in contention. The other teams will have to hope they get a little lucky. I think we’ll see Stybar and Sagan break away from the rest. They will ride into the velodrome together and Sagan will win the 2 man sprint.

David Hunter

Follow us in facebook https://www.facebook.com/CiclismoInternacionalLatinoamerica?fref=ts … or Twitter @CiclismoInter

Copyright © 2015 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved