Santos Tour Down Under 2015 – Stage 5
By David Hunter
Time for Willunga Hill!
Come on, we all know this stage and we know what we’re going to get……a battle royale!
Easily one of the best stages in the whole year
When the organisers decided to change the stage to finish at the top of the hill, they made a brilliant decision. Ever since, we’ve had brilliant stages with excitement guaranteed. The first time up the hill, ensures a gradual slimming down process before we hit the climb for the final time.
3.3km at 7.2%, this is a fun climb!
Last year, Porte ripped up the history books and attacked from distance. Cadel followed but quickly realised he couldn’t cope. He dropped back to Ulissi and Gerrans, all three were fighting for the podium. It was a bit of a headwind too, which made the Porte attack all the more impressive. He ended up winning the stage by 10 seconds to Ulissi and Gerrans, with Evans finishing behind Gesink and Impey, 14 seconds down.
What usually happens is the riders wait until the last kilometre before attacking each other. That’s because Gerrans is usually there and that style of finish suits him. The tactic from Richie Porte was spot on but it’s going to be hard for lightening to strike twice.
As a 21 year old, Rohan Dennis was 5th on this stage. He knows the climb well and how BMC play their two cards will be very interesting. It’s their jersey to lose.
Last year was Cadel’s first competitive finish on Willunga. Chasing after Porte was a poor tactical decision and cost him the ochre jersey. He’ll have learned from this, but it could well be his job to chase Porte down and sit on his wheel, something he couldn’t do in 2014. Or will they let Dennis act as the anchor and keep Evans back for a late attack? That’s the move that suits Cadel best. Wait until the last 500m and boom!
Tom Dumoulin is another massive threat on GC. He has a very fast finish, the prospect of bonus seconds is very real. However, Cadel did make up a lot of ground on him to finish 2nd on stage 3. He is a very good climber, but will hope for coolish conditions. Willunga day can often be baking hot and I don’t think he’d cope well.
Two youngsters doing very well are Jack Haig and Ruben Fernandez. Both are just 15 seconds down on GC and have a real chance of finishing in the top 5. Fernandez is a former winner of the Tour de l’Avenir and a star in the making. Haig is going to join Orica, later in the year, and is looking particularly strong just now.
Also sitting 15 seconds down are Mick Rogers and Domenico Pozzovivo. Both riders will cope well with the climb and I’m looking forward to Rogers putting in some attacks. I don’t think the climb is long enough or hard enough for Pozzovivo to strike. The Italian is the King of failed attacks, expect a few in this stage.
Maxime Bouet looks like a gatecrasher at a party! He’s performing extremely well, on his debut for Etixx. I would be surprised to see him survive the climb, but he is in top form!
Prediction Time
How’s the race going to pan out? The pressure is all on Richie. Everyone is expecting an attack at the foot of the climb and he really has to try it again. Expecting it and stopping it are different things. When he goes, Cadel will be obliged to go with him and sit on his wheel. If Richie drags Cadel to the line, then Cadel wins. Problem is, he couldn’t cope with Porte in 2014. The 2015 Richie Porte is quite a bit better than the 2014 vintage. Despite being outnumbered, I still fancy Porte to blow the field apart. Whether he gets enough time is another thing, but had you given him this position, pre-race, he’d probably have taken it. So, will the real Richie Porte please stand up!
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