Tirreno Adriatico 2015 – Overall Preview
By David Hunter
Everyone loves Tirreno. This year we have Contador, Quintana, Nibali, Urán and Rodríguez. A jaw dropping field. Well we would have but Froome has pulled out due to illness. A real shame for all concerned.
The race opens with a 5.4km prologue, after a last minute change of heart. The prologue specialists won’t have been prepared for this but they’ll still want a big performance. 5 corners in this distance means it’s fairly technical.
Stage 2 is the only day for the pure sprinters. With most at the sprinter friendly, Paris-Nice, we get our first chance to see Cav v Kittel. Well we would have but Kittel has also withdrawn from the race! Also here are Ruffoni, Bennett, Sagan, Pelucchi, Modolo and Viviani. These boys will be fighting for 3rd and we’ll all be focused on the battle between the big two. Cavendish is flying, but has been laid low by a stomach bug.
After a successful debut in the race, in 2014, we return to Arezzo. The finish is around 1km at 5% and we can see splits. The fight for position is fierce and I’m really happy to see us back in Arezzo.
Stage 4 is tough! The final climb is around 3km at 9.3%, they do it twice, before a steep descent. This is going to be a very selective finish, where anything could happen.
Stage 5 is the Queen stage, with the climb of the Terminillo. It’s 16.1km at 7.3%, it’s going to hurt! The Giro was here in 2010 with Chris Anker Sorensen winning from the break. I doubt the break will win this stage.
After two crazy days, the race calms down again and the sprinters should get a chance to shine. Although, the climb with 65km to go could end the hopes of a few.
The race ends with the usual ITT. By this point, the GC has usually been settled and the riders are only battling for the minor places.
The battle for the title will be fierce. We’ve already seen Contador in Andalucia and he looked good. If that wasn’t enough for you, we also have the addition of Quintana, Nibali, Pozzovivo, Betancur, Uran, Pinot, Niemiec, Van Den Broeck, Meintjes, Adam Yates, Formolo, Rolland, Rodriguez and Mollema. I can’t remember a stronger field for a race like this. It is awesome!
The prologue and ITT rule a few riders out. Guys like Pozzovivo, Rolland, Betancur, Pinot, Niemiec, Meintjes, Rolland and Rodriguez look like they’ll be battling for the top 10, not the podium. Vincenzo Nibali is looking poor just now and is way below the level required to challenge Contador.
Quintana hasn’t raced since crashing in his national road race. His form and fitness is unknown and with his focus on the Tour, he might be a little behind the others. He does possess the ability to arrive “undercooked” but still perform brilliantly.
Contador had a poor team in Andalucia but he’s aided by the return of his number 1 rider, Roman Kreuziger. Together, these two are just about unstoppable. Kreuziger was 12th in Oman and 11th in Strade Bianche, so he’s in good form. They will be helped out by Ivan Basso, but that’s it. Having just two teammates for the Terminillo isn’t a great idea, but what a pair.
With no Froome, Team Sky arrives with Kiryienka, Konig, Nieve, Poels, Siutsou and Puccio. This is a strong team, but who will be team leader? The early season form of Nieve has been good, he finished 4th in Andalucía. New siging, Leo Konig, will want to be the captain but his poor showing in Oman could go against him. Despite being a weaker TT rider, I think Sky should turn to the Spaniard. He deserves his chance.
On paper there are only another 2 men that are capable of challenging Contador and Quintana. They are Vincenzo Nibali and Rigoberto Uran. The Italian looks to be favouring his 2014 preparations, be rubbish all year and peak in July! He’s endured a poor start to the year and was way off the pace in Strade Bianche. It’s going to be impossible for him to turn his form around in 1 week. Astana may even turn to Scarponi instead. The 35 year old is a consistent top 10 performer in this race and if given the opportunity, he would deliver that result again.
Uran did a good job in Strade Bianche, finishing 7th. His TT ability continues to improve and I would expect to see him take time on all other GC riders in the ITT. Can he hang on when climbing the Terminillo? He is a great rider but sometimes can get distanced by the likes of Froome and Contador. With there only being 1 mountaintop finish, Uran will be confident of finishing on the podium, especially if he can deliver a big prologue.
After a disappointing ride in Oman, where is the form of Joaquim Rodriguez? Is this a sign of things to come or can he turn things round again. He arrives with his trusted lieutenants, Dani Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso. March is usually a good month for the Spaniard as he fine tunes his form for the Ardennes but I can’t see him winning the title. Top 5 would be a good result for Rodriguez and a sign that he’s on target for April.
Louis Meintjes has started 2015 with a bang. He won the African RR title and finished 6th in Oman. He’ll be looking to see how he compares to Quintana and Contador and I expect him to go well. The South African is a very talented rider and MTN have a talent on their hands.
Bauke Mollema has been putting in some big kilometres on his TT bike. He was one of the many riders caught up in the stage 1 crashes in Andalucia. This is a big test for him. Having moved to Trek he needs to prove himself and that starts here. He’s a very talented rider and another who should be looking to finish in the top 5.
Quite a few of the climbers will not be targeting the overall win but will want to compare themselves to Contador, in the mountains. A rider like Thibaut Pinot, will not win the race, but could challenge on stage 5. He had a bad start in Oman but recovered to finish 4th on the Green Mountain. Pinot is improving every year, I wonder if he can get closer to the big riders.
Prediction Time
Contador has to be the red hot favourite for the race. No Chris Froome and he has Roman Kreuziger to help in the mountains. His nearest challenger should be Rigoberto Uran. The prologue and ITT could see Uran taking 45 seconds on Contador. It’s going to be hard for Alberto to take back this time, but he should just about manage it. I expect Quintana to finish 3rd.
David Hunter
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