Tirreno Adriático 2016 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

After the trials and tribulations of Strade, the peloton continues in Italy, with one of the hardest stage races of the year. As usual, the route offers something for everyone. The list of recent winners is very impressive: Evans, Nibali, Contador and Quintana. It tells me that you have to be a brilliant rider to win here.

Stage 1

The opening stage is a 22.7km TTT. This stage had to be rearranged in 2015, due to a wind calamity, hopefully it goes ahead this year. We have some brilliant squads looking to take this stage, there is a huge amount of pride in winning a TTT.

Stage 2

There is no messing around in Tirreno, we head straight into a demanding stage. The final climb is long, around 12km, but doesn’t have a hard average gradient. The road rises and falls, the most difficult section is 1km at 7%. We should have a large bunch heading towards the finishing line, but the final 250m is at 7%. Certainly a day for the puncheurs.

Stage 3

The 3rd stage should be one for the sprinters, but the final kilometre does rise. Given the limit options for the quick men, this chance has to be taken.

Stage 4

This is a really demanding day. The climb of Montefalco has many sections in double digits. The puncheurs will hope to hang on for a sprint, the GC riders might have some other ideas. It’s also a very long day in the saddle.

Stage 5

The 5th stage is the decisive day for the GC, with the climb of Monte San Vicino. It is 10km at 7.8%, with sections of 12%. Due to the time of the year, it will be cold in the Apennines.

Stage 6

A final stage for the sprinters, again the finish isn’t easy. We have a long climb of around 2% to finish the stage off. This will make it hard for the pure sprinters to challenge for the win.

Stage 7

We end with the usual TT in San Benedetto. It’s only 10.1km long and it usually doesn’t impact on the overall winner of the race.

Contenders

With one big mountain stage, a TTT, an ITT and one tough punchy stage, we are really looking for a strong climber, with a solid squad behind them.

Vincenzo Nibali

Looking for his 3rd title and certainly starts the race as the big favourite. His performance in Oman was special and he arrives with his usual group of helpers: Scarponi, Agnoli, Fuglsang and Capecchi. When the pressure is on, Astana can produce a good TTT, but they will expect to lose a bit of time to some of the other GC favourites.

Tejay Van Garderen

Was close in Andalucia, but Valverde put him to the sword. The TTT is great for him, but Nibali will fancy putting him under pressure on stages 4 and 5. It will be fascinating to see how he copes in Italy, against their main man. He couldn’t beat Valverde in Spain, can he beat Nibali in Italy?

Rigoberto Uran

He used to look forward to races with a TTT, now he must fear them! The Cannondale rider is still adjusting to his new team. He does have the help of Davide Formolo, but I’m not sure what we’re going to get from the Cannondale Uran.

Daniel Martin

Is the opposite of Uran, now looks forward to a race with a TTT. Etixx will protect him in the opening stage and if he gains time on his rivals, he will be a very hard man to beat. He won a stage in Valenciana, but was ill in Oman. This should be a race that he targets the podium, the win will be difficult due to the ITT, even though it’s only 10km.

Thibaut Pinot

Already started the season in impressive form, the Frenchman will hope that continues. He was 2nd in Besseges and 4th in Algarve, this is another race where he will expect a top result. The TTT is always a concern with FDJ, but they should be better than in recent years. Another challenger for the podium.

Diego Ulissi

Has really started the season off in fine fashion. His 7th place in Strade might not sound brilliant, but it’s not a race he usually does well in. Like Pinot, he will expect to lose a lot of time in the TTT, making it very difficult to win the race. Will love the punchy stages and the uphill sprints.

Alejandro Valverde

Was amazing in Andalucia. Not sure he’ll love the cold weather, but he is always consistent and will be a big threat to Nibali and Van Garderen. The Queen stage should be very good for him and he’ll also be in the mix for multiple stage wins.

Esteban Chaves & Adam Yates

Orica have an advantage over the other teams, they will do well in the TTT and have two riders for the GC. If Chaves falters, they have Adam Yates. Having two cards to play will be a big bonus during the mountain stage. It will be fun to see what the youngsters can deliver.

Joaquim Rodriguez

Not had a great start to the year. With his focus on the TDF, I don’t think we’ll see him at his brilliant best. Katusha also have Van Den Broeck, not sure he’ll cope with the mountain top finish.

Michal Kwiatkowski

After his illness, his performance in Strade was expected. Just a couple of days later, will it will be hard for him to turn it around? In his favour, is the fact that the GC battle won’t start until stage 4, he does have time to find his legs. This should be a huge target for him, as he can challenge for quite a few stage wins. If he is fit, he has a massive chance of success. Sky also have Wout Poels, if things go wrong.

Bauke Mollema

Took a very impressive 2nd place in 2015. He’ll find it hard to match that performance, but he’ll try. Last year was a reward for some good attacking riding, he continued with this approach in Andalucia. The Dutchman is never afraid to give it a go, something us fans love about him.

Analysis

The TTT should give BMC and Orica riders an early advantage, although Astana will be keen to limit their losses. Stages 2 and 4 present opportunities for the faster finishing GC riders to pick up a stage win and some bonus seconds. Valverde, Ulissi and Kwiatkowski are the ones with the fastest kick. Their teams need to put riders like GVA and Sagan under pressure, as they will be very hard to beat in a sprint.

Nibali will look at stage 4 and think that it’s possible to drop a few of his GC rivals. It certainly suits his style of attacking riding. That stage will shake up the GC, but nothing like stage 5. It contains a proper mountain, which will blow the bunch to pieces. Nibali is the favourite for the race, but he needs to watch out for quite a few riders. This is not going to be an easy race to win.

Nibali and Valverde arrive with the best form, Pinot and Van Garderen aren’t too far behind. I do think that Orica will be dangerous, thanks to their two pronged attack. If Chaves and Yates can last deep into the big climb, they should be able to pressurise the other teams.

Prediction Time

Van Garderen should be the best placed GC rider after the TTT. This will continue for a few stages, but stage 4 gives a real chance to Vincenzo Nibali to strike. Following straight on from that is the Queen stage, another that is well suited to Nibali. I have to be boring and go with Nibali.

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