Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Stage 2 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

As expected Filippo Ganna took responsibility of the initial time-trial at Tirreno-Adriatico and won the opening stage. With a pan-flat straightforward course it would be hard to beat him, he took 11 seconds on Evenepoel and 18 on Pogacar who completed the podium.

Positive: Ganna taking the time-trial, not a surprise but Evenepoel and Pogacar taking time on their rivals was a good start to the race.

Negative: Jumbo boys Affini and Vingegaard with disappointing performances. 

The Route

The second stage is a traditional Tirreno-Adriatico stage, with a possible sprint finish but with several hilly features which usually have as a big theme the form some of the sprinters will be carrying into Milano-Sanremo.

219 kilometers on the menu will make for a complicated day, with hilltop finishes with 58 and 30 kilometers to go, where attacks aren’t expected but where the teams who want to toughen up the race have her chance. 

The final hilltop may be the place for attacks as at the top it’s a fast run-in into Sovicille. It is 4.1Km at 3.9%, summits with 17.5 kilometers to go. The final 10 kilometers are flat and relatively straightforward, ideal to chase so the resisting sprinters and their teams will surely be putting on a chase into the finish.

Final sprint is flat, non-technical, so it’s really a matter of surviving the climbs for the fast men who want an opportunity to go for the win.

The Weather

Northeastern wind, that will be strong enough to put on a lot of tension in the peloton. It will put on a headwind in the final ascents which makes it more likely to see a bunch sprint. In the final kilometers it turns into a tailwind, there will be a rush into the 3 kilometers to go turn. 

Breakaway chances: 15%

On paper it’s not a bad day for a breakaway. Despite long, it’s hilly but not too hard, quite possible if a large group, or one with quality goes forward. The headwind in the final hour of racing should be deadly, however not impossible.

I predict some teams will try to make it hard in the uphill sections. There will be sprinters who can struggle, and others who will know and try to get their teams burn up their legs, even if the headwind is felt. 

The Favourites

Caleb Ewan – He can’t climb usually, but when in form he’s performed brilliantly. He’s carrying some good form into the race, the possible chaotic finish is not so good for him but with no Jakobsen and Philipsen, he may be the fastest.

Tim Merlier – Alpecin come with a team fully focused in him. He should be able to get over the ascents and the tailwind finale is good for him, he’s got here a very good opportunity to finally get his first win of the season.

Mark Cavendish – He really can’t climb, but the headwind can be a life saver for him. Cavendish has taken some wins in the last few weeks, this isn’t his best opportunity but he can take the win.

Elia Viviani – Racing at home he’ll be motivated, with Ganna and Ben Swift alongside him he should be able to go into the sprint well positioned and he will always be a card to play.

The list of candidates spreads far and wide though. On the side of those who can climb and would prefer a harder race we’d see Giacomo Nizzolo, Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews and Magnus Cort Nielsen.

The majority though will be in agreement that an easier race over the late hilltops is the best scenario for them, and even if there are riders dropped their teams will be putting in the work to come back and eventually reel it to a regular bunch sprint. Here you will find Elia Viviani, Pascal Ackermann, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni, Phil Bauhaus, Jordi Meeus, Alberto Dainese, Olav Kooij, Matteo Moschetti and Davide Cimolai.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#137 Taco van der Hoorn – Taco, let’s hit the breakaway! The guys will be covering Alexander today, but the hilly finale is quite good for you. Long day, similar to the one where you took your Giro win, so let’s try and replicate it. It will be a hard day but try to unite with the break after getting in it, take it slow. Towards the end do a collective effort, look towards having the pace high constantly to prevent the gap from coming down, despite the headwind. Don’t look to attack, bet on a sprint unless there’s someone who can clearly outsprint you.

#157 Jos van Emden – Today’s a day to protect Jonas. It will be windy out there, so the first priority is to make sure he stays safe, your experience will be crucial. Edoardo and Tosh will help Olav into the sprint, if everything is relaxed then towards the end you should help them too.

#81 Mattia Bais – You and Umberto should try to get in the breakaway today. The chances aren’t too big, but we need some exposure and it’s an ideal day for you. Possibly we may get the KOM jersey too, so it’s quite important to have representation in front.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Ewan, Merlier⭐⭐Cavendish, Kristoff, Viviani, Kooij⭐Nizzolo, Sagan, MC.Nielsen, Matthews, Ackermann, Bouhanni, Bauhaus, Meeus, Kooij, Moschetti

I think Caleb Ewan will get through the final climb and then set up for a win in the final sprint, he has go great form on and this is his best test for Milano-Sanremo.

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