Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Stage 3 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The opening road stage of the Tirreno-Adriatico was one for the sprinters as expected, although the hilly profile ner the end saw some attacks flying off, with Marc Soler trying to surprise, getting a healthy gap that was only brought back with 3 kilometers to go. A very narrow and twisty finish took place, not the cup of tea for some, Tim Merlier started his sprint in good position and took a brilliant win, his first of the season. Olav Kooij and Kaden Groves took second and third place. 

Positive: Merlier taking his first win of the season. 

Negative: Ewan as classic struggling in a technical finale, Démare and Viviani who didn’t contest the sprint after Groupama/INEOS did a lot of work and Cavendish who was nowhere near his team in the end and missed the sprint.

 The Route

The third day is the best opportunity for the sprinters to get their battle for a stage win in the race. Despite not being pan-flat, it doesn’t have a rough start and should be an easy day to control, as the peloton will be riding towards Terni and will follow a fast pace into what should be a bunch sprint. 

As the peloton circles the city center of the the town, they will have a rather technical finale with some roundabouts to tackle. The final one with just 300 meters to go, although it may just be a left-hand corner, into a false-flat sprint. 

The Weather

A moderate breeze from the northeast. It should be hidden by the hills throughout the hills, not an exposed route, although if it’s noticeable it can come as a headwind in the final straight. 

Breakaway chances: 5% 

No chances taking into consideration what we’ve seen today. Many teams interested, many believe they can go for the win, the stage doesn’t feature any rough ascent so there won’t be difficulties in reeling back in a group. 

As for tactics nothing too complex should be observed, a normal sprint stage I reckon. 

The Favourites 

Tim Merlier – Likely the best combination between pure sprinter power and positioning abilities. Today, Merlier did everything perfectly, and he will be a main favourite to repeat this triumph tomorrow as the finale is expected to be chaotic once again. 

Caleb Ewan – Disapointing today, it is not unusual to see Ewan miss out on sprints due to his occasional inability to position, however he was not far off from the front and I feel like he had a chance today. Tomorrow, he can make it up for today’s sprint. 

Mark Cavendish – Who knows, he has shown speed this season but today’s ride was below expectations. Quick-Step leadout did perfect, but they need the Briton to follow the wheels in order for the team to take a win. 

Olav Kooij – The fastest at today’s finish. Positioning has often been a struggle for him, at the UAE Tour the same was verified, however it does not look like he’s far from dialing everything in and taking his first World Tour win. 

The peloton is absolutely packed with quality sprinters though, and the win may very well come from another rider. Just today we’ve seen disappointing results many. Some teams on paper bring in really good leadouts like Groupama – FDJ with Arnaud Démare and Intermarché with Alexander Kristoff, but they need to do well unlike today to be able to be within the sight of a win. The likes of Giacomo Nizzolo, Elia Viviani, Phil Bauhaus and Nacer Bouhanni also have the speed to be capable of coming in and taking a win. 

Then you have the likes of Peter Sagan and Kaden Groves who did quite well in the first places, Davide Ballerini who could surprise if Quick-Step choose to go with him again, and some outsiders like Jordi Meeus, Alberto Dainese, Matteo Moschetti, Giovanni Lonardi, Pascal Ackermann, Simone Consonni, Andrea Vendrame and Magnus Cort Nielsen who are all consolidated sprinters capable of being in the first places on their best day. 

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to… 

#205 Kaden Groves – Look Kaden you did everything well today, a shame you were a tiny bit blocked by Merlier but the win was out of sight. A third place is still good though, tomorrow we’ll go for another, the finish is slightly technical again, headwind at the finishing straight, make sure you find the wheel of Merlier ideally, not the big leadouts, and try to jump the sprint from behind like you did today. 

#162 Caleb Ewan – So Caleb, I’m afraid to tell you that things won’t get easier than today and you simply have to be physical in the leadup to the sprint. You have to be in position, the sprint will suit you very well with the headwind and slight gradient, we will have to trust the guys will put you in position well but if you see they can’t put you in the front you just jump in the wheels of other leadouts and try to get it near the line, we need a win. 

#165 Rudiger Selig – Rudi you’re in charge of leading out Caleb, who I just talked to. He knows what to do, your job is to put him in position towards the end, not be afraid to hit the wind and perhaps spend that little bit more. He needs to be at the front with one kilometer to go, if he’s left too early in front he’ll find a wheel, but that’s the priority. Michael will leadout you guys out, behind you will be Roger and Caleb, we have the power so we must hit the front when there’s space, no hesitations! 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Merlier, Ewan, Kooij 

⭐⭐Groves, Kristoff 

⭐Nizzolo, Viviani, Cavendish, Ballerini, Démare, Bauhaus, Bouhanni, Ackermann, Consonni, Meeus, Sagan, Moschetti 

He has won in the past, I think it is time Olav Kooij finally has a breakthrough win at World Tour level, he has shown the speed necessary to do so in the last few weeks. 

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