Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 – Stage 7 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

A big day in the Appeninnes was expected and Tadej Pogacar turned it into one of the most impressive climbing performances of recent times. UAE again took control of the race, together with Bahrain – Victorious, but Pogacar controlled the attack of Mikel Landa in the dangerous descent and base of the final climb, and launched his own move to easily take a confortable lead and dominant win in Carpegna. Jonas Vingegaard and Mikel Landa completed the podium, also filling up the podium.

Positive: Pogacar putting on another shocking performance. Landa also a pleasant surprise, having one of his best rides of recent years.

Negative: Mas crashing on the final descent after a strong ride, Evenepoel not being able to deal with the big climbs and falling out of the Top10, Lopez and Hart with disappointing performances

The Route

The final day should see the final bunch sprint of the race take place, the last sprint for many before Milano-Sanremo. The day has a complicated start though, with some inland hilly terrain to be tackled in the stage’s first half which could see some attacks fly off the front of the peloton by some strong riders.

If everything goes normal though, the second pan-flat half of the stage should be good to chase as the peloton head to San Benedetto del Tronto, where the race ordinarily has it’s finale.

With 159 kilometers, the stage will be short and very fast. The streets by the Adriatic sea will be very fast and leadouts essential, the riders will have a sprint next to the sea which should be furious, seemingly very simple in the distance but with a very sharp chicane with around 750 meters to go which should see many battle to get into in the front, raising the risk factor in the sprint.

The Weather

Breakaway chances: 20%

It’s a day for the sprinters, but don’t assume a breakaway win is impossible. The first half of the stage is rather hilly, and gives chances for a strong group to get away. The second half is pan-flat and will be very fast, not easy to bring gaps back down if there’s a quality group up front. Finally, It’s also the final day, there’s some teams with less riders and the chasing power would not be as good as in the first few days.

The Favourites

Tim Merlier – Winner of stage two, Merlier will benefit from the abandon of Ewan and will eye a second stage win. He’s a pure sprinter, and will enjoy the fast finale, Alpecin have a good weapon in the Belgian.

Arnaud Démare – He’s not consistent, however on stage three he put on a hell of a sprint that almost brought him the win. Groupama has the pieces to fit the puzzle together, if Démare can make it work then he can surely go for the win once again.

Olav Kooij – As I had mentioned in Terni, he’s perhaps the fastest in this peloton on a pure sprinter, but positioning has cost him a lot. Perhaps he still has some years to grow into top sprinter status as he’s learning how to ride the finales with the best, but I reckon he’s got the speed already to take a win.

Mark Cavendish – He’s reached this far into the race, which suggests his form isn’t as bad as it may have seemed. He has been absent in the race so far, but has a chance to redeem himself. The finale will be pan-flat, he can do something specially having such a strong leadout, where Davide Ballerini may also play a part if he must.

Then the list extends. Some sprinters have left the race which opens things up slightly, however you still have some big names such as Kaden Groves who’s done quite well in the sprints so far, Alexander Kristoff who should have a strong leadout, and then a wide list of quality sprinters containing Phil Bauhaus, Pascal Ackermann, Matteo Moschetti, Alberto Dainese, Jordi Meeus, Giovanni Lonardi and Davide Cimolai who are expected to be in the fight aswell.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#6 Max Richeze – Our job was done for the week, Tadej did what he had to do and we can relax today as no-one is even near him. We go for the stage, it will not be easy but Pascal will give it another shot, and with some less sprinters at the end it may be less chaotic. You know what to do, how to do, we’ll try to give you two more support and hopefully we can also get Pascal getting his winning ways back.

#166 Harry Sweeny – All the guys went home pretty much to focus on Milano-Sanremo so you can try to go for the break. You and the guys who are left have the freedom to all try, you never know if it can succeed.

#104 Lorenzo Fortunato – Your work is done for the week, just make sure you make it home safely.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Merlier, Kooij

⭐⭐Démare, Cavendish, Kristoff

⭐Groves, Ackermann, Bauhaus, Moschetti, Meeus, Dainese

I think he’s the superior sprinter and will be able to repeat his win of earlier in the race. The last day can fall for Tim Merlier.

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Tomorrow’s race has prizes of at least €250 and an entry fee of only €5. Make good use of your knowledge!

Rúben Silva

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