Tour de France 2014 – Stage 18 Preview
Stage 17 Recap
The morning break went away but Rodriguez managed to miss it. Katusha went crazy and on the first climb the gap was small enough for Rodriguez and others to bridge. At this point, there were groups all over the road, but it eventually settled down. A large group remained up front, including Rodriguez and Majka. On the final climb, it was Visconti who managed to escape and he looked good for victory. That was until Majka exploded from the group, with the help of a motorbike! He caught the Italian, toyed with him, before going solo for his 2nd victory of the race. He also took a big lead in the KOM classification. Back in the yellow jersey group, it was Nibali and Peraud who distanced the rest. Valverde was struggling but he had help from his teammates and he did a great job of limiting his losses.
Stage 18 Pau – Hautacam 145.5km
Last day in the mountains.
Another short, difficult stage for the tired riders. The stage is all about the 2 HC climbs. First up is the Tourmalet.
The legendary climb is 17.1km at 7.3%. This is a killer of a climb and if stage 17 was anything to go by, we will see some serious GC action. Luckily for a few riders there is a long descent before the final climb.
The final climb to Hautacam is 13.6km at 7.8%. The non TT riders need some time before Saturday, and that means all eyes will be on Thibaut Pinot. He thinks he needs 1 minute on Valverde and Peraud, for the TT. He currently is 34 seconds behind Valverde and 8 seconds ahead of Peraud. This means he’s under pressure to attack on the final climb. Due to the long descent, off the Tourmalet, the peloton will still have quite a few riders in the bunch, at the foot of the final climb. Movistar and AG2R are the teams with a number of strong climbers, and the only teams capable of destroying the peloton.
I think Peraud will have AG2R working hard, as he wants to gain time on Valverde. He currently sits 42 seconds behind Valverde and is better in the TT, but he’ll want more time. It will be fascinating to see how the tactics work out.
Away from the battle for the podium, the KOM jersey is still up for grabs. Majka leads Nibali by 31 points and Rodriguez by 37 points. The two HC climbs mean there are 75 points on offer. To secure the jersey Majka needs to go in the break and take top points on the Tourmalet. This would put him 56 points above Nibali and the game will be over. Rodriguez looked a beaten man today and I don’t see him challenging Majka.
Whether the break makes it will depend on the attitude of Astana, AG2R, FDJ and Movistar. The last chance for a stage win is a big incentive for the teams to work together, but it doesn’t always guarantee success.
The yellow jersey does like to claim the final mountain stage and I think Nibali will want to take stage number 4. If he wants the stage, he’ll win the stage. Although, they could let Westra go in the break and try to share the joy.
Prediction time…
Vincenzo Nibali to take stage number 4!
David Hunter
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