Tour de France 2014 – Stage 20 Preview
Stage 19 Recap
Bad weather rolled in and an already exhausted peloton had to deal with heavy rain. This meant that only a small number survived the final climb, but all sprinters apart from Kittel were there. Near the top of the climb, Navardauskas attacked. He went fast down a scary descent and established a small gap, but disaster struck the peloton when they crashed on a tricky corner. This meant that the chasing group was too small to bring back the Lithuanian, and he took a wonderful win. Degenkolb won the sprint for 2nd, with Kristoff 3rd.
Stage 20 Bergerac – Perigueux 54km
It’s time trial time!
After such a demanding race, most riders will be in survival mode for this monster TT. No categorised climbs but 6 uncategorised ones in the stage. There is virtually no flat road and this will be hard for the riders.
I’ll start with the obvious, Tony Martin will win this stage. There is no question of doubt, as the German is in the form of his life and no one will get close.
A long TT at this stage of a grand tour is very difficult. You have to look to riders who are currently in form and don’t look too much at their TT form. That means Pinot has a chance of doing better than most think he can. He certainly is in form, but will have a fight to hold onto the podium. Peraud seems safe, so it’s Valverde who has it all to lose. The Spaniard is not the best in this discipline, but put in a wonderful show to win the Spanish ITT title in June. He desperately wants to finish on the podium and will hope to recapture this form, but he has been looking tired.
Vincenzo Nibali should finish the stage in 2nd place. It will be interesting to see how close he can go to Tony Martin. Froome beat the German in Romandie and Contador went close in Pais Vasco. Could Nibali pull off the biggest surprise of the race?
There is a 30% chance of rain at the start of the stage, but we should get dry roads at the finish. The wind will be a factor. It is a cross/headwind throughout the whole stage, but strengthens throughout the stage, favouring the early starters.
Looking through the GC, it means the the following TT riders will get favourable conditions:
Tuft, Durbridge, Bodnar, Boom, Kiryienka and Barta.
Later starters are Martin, Izagirre, Dumoulin, Chavanel, Kwiatkowski, Rogers, Thomas, Porte and the top 10.
As Tony Martin sits 50th overall, he should still get some good conditions.
Such a long TT is a specialist race and doesn’t suit many. One it does favour is Vasil Kiryienka. He was 4th in the Worlds, over 57.9km, only beaten by the big 3: Martin, Wiggins and Cancellara.
Tom Dumoulin has been in great TT form this season. He won the prologue in the Criterium and has 3 second places to his name. He also won the Dutch ITT championship.
Both Chavanel and Kwiatkowski won their own ITT championships, and I think the Frenchman has a good chance to surprise a few. The Pole looks dead on his knees and I would be very surprised if he can produce a top 5 result.
I’m very interested in what Michael Rogers can produce. Winner of a brilliant stage and in great form, the former 3 time World ITT champion could be a threat to the podium. Or, he might be happy with what he’s already achieved.
Teejay Van Garderen needs to make big time, if he wants to reach the podium. I think he’s left himself too much to do.
Prediction time…
1. Tony Martin
2. Vasil Kiryienka
3. Vincenzo Nibali
4. Tom Dumoulin
5. Teejay Van Garderen
The favourable early conditions should help Kiryienka go close(within 1 minute).
David Hunter
Follow us in facebook https://www.facebook.com/CiclismoInternacionalLatinoamerica?fref=ts … or Twitter @CiclismoInter
