Tour de France 2021 – Stage 7 preview

By David Hunter

Vierzon > Le Creusot 249km

A stage with a nod to the classics.

250km is an awfully long day in the saddle, especially in a grand tour, but I like it. It’s the first stage where the breakaway has a realistic hope of staying away until the end, as the day is too hard for the pure sprinters. The problem is the presence of the new breed of super sprinters that are in the race, you can bet that a few teams will be interested in chasing and setting up a reduced sprint.

Weather

Some sun, some clouds and it should stay dry. The wind is light, but the run for home will be a headwind.

Key Points

The last 40km of the stage is tough, especially as the riders will already have covered over 200km when they hit it. This section is full of fast descents, some steep climbs, and very narrow roads. Ensuring this stage ends in a sprint is going to be difficult, but some will try as it looks their best chance of winning a stage.

The main event is the cat 2 climb which the organisers say is 5.7km at 5.7%, but that includes the lower slopes and a descent. I would say the climb is 1.6km at 11.2% and there is a bonus sprint at the crest giving the first man across eight seconds.

It really is a horrible climb, very demanding. The crest comes with just under 18km to go, it will be difficult for someone to go solo on this climb and stay away until the end, but the narrow roads will help.

This is the last categorised climb of the day, it is 2.5km at 5.1% and crests with 7.6km to go.

The final kilometre is harder than it seems. We have two kick ups, and both will be harder than they look considering the distance covered and the fatigue in the legs. I love the look of the final 40km, it promises to be full of attacks.

Tactics

Who wants to control this stage? The potential winners that immediately pop into my head are Sagan, Colbrelli, Matthews and van der Poel. Which means we have enough teams to control the morning break if they all go for that option. 250km is long way for anyone to chase, some might want to try and jump in the morning break and force others into challenging. The other issue for these teams is the cat 2 climb and the width of the roads in the finale. If we see GC attacks on the climb then the fast men will struggle, even if it does stay altogether the narrow roads are a nightmare for a team wanting to ensure the race ends in a sprint. It could be a frustrating day for a team who rides 200km to chase down the morning move. This stage is perfect for a late attack, something that was back in fashion in last year’s race.

GC teams won’t try to control the stage, the first big mountain stage comes on Saturday, and this stage isn’t hard enough for them. All eyes will be on Bora, Bahrain, BikeExchange and Alpecin-Fenix. I wouldn’t count on the Belgians, they already have stage wins and showed in the Tour de Suisse they don’t like getting leaned on. What about Sagan? Will he really cope with the climb? I’ve not seen anything in the last couple of months that convinces me he’ll be up there; this is not the Sagan of a few years ago. One thing is sure, Colbrelli and Matthews are climbing incredibly well, I think they’ll expect their teams to order a chase, but will it be successful? Despite the presence of Wout Van Aert, I don’t think we’ll see Jumbo-Visma get involved in the chase, all their eggs will be in the GC basket.

The break has a good chance of success, but not a great chance. The start of the stage is flat, which should mean quite a long battle to make the move. We have several strong riders who would love to escape in this type of stage, normally a stage like this would be won by a rider who packs a good sprint, despite the tough looking climbs.

Contenders

Wout Van Aert – everything points to him not being 100%, which is understandable considering his appendix surgery in the build-up to the race, but I still must include him in this section. The longer the race goes on the better he should get, and this stage looks very good for him. He’ll be able to survive the climb and has the sprint required to win from a small group.

Mathieu van der Poel – how will the yellow jersey approach the stage? This race has already been brilliant for him, with a stage win and the yellow jersey, anything else is a bonus. The last 40km of the stage looks like the classics, and we all know how good he is in those races. Given his attacking style I don’t think he’ll be waiting for a sprint, expect the big man to attack and attack early.

Sonny Colbrelli – in the form of his life, but can he convert that into his first grand tour stage win? The Italian has always been a good rider, but he’s quickly advanced into the brilliant category. His recent climbing improvement has been nothing short of sensational, this is a great opportunity for him. The problem is the presence of van der Poel and Van Aert, two riders who are faster than him. This is not an easy era to win races in.

Michael Matthews – he’s in a very similar position to Colbrelli. He’s climbing very well, he’s got a fast sprint, but I just can’t see him beating van der Poel and Van Aert.

Peter Sagan – not climbing as well as the riders already mentioned, and a few of them are quicker than him too.

Julian Alaphilippe – he’s got one stage win, but he’d love another. You just know that he’ll attack on the cat 2 climb, it’s in his DNA. Unlike the opening stage, I think Pogačar will be watching him closely and won’t simply allow him to get a gap. I don’t think Alaphilippe will mind this, he’ll back himself to win the uphill sprint from a small group.

Tadej Pogačar – given the way he smashed the TT; it wouldn’t surprise me to see him challenging for this stage. He knows that a few of his main rivals are looking vulnerable, the cat 2 climb is the perfect spot to put them under pressure. If the race ends in a sprint, he’ll fancy his chances of upsetting the quicker guys.

Dylan Teuns – late attack option 1. Up there on the Mûr but depends on Colbrelli.

Matej Mohorič – late attack option 2. Always an option in this type of stage but depends on Colbrelli.

Iván Garcia Cortina – breakaway hopeful number 1. Was climbing well in the Tour de Suisse.

Benoît Cosnefroy – breakaway hopeful number 2. Riding into some form.

Prediction Time

Will we see a GC battle on the cat 2 climb? Normally the answer would be no as the climb is a little too far from the finish, but this is not normal times. With Roglič and Thomas bashed and bruised it’s a perfect opportunity for other teams to test them out, it’s the cruel nature of the sport.

The morning break has an okay chance of winning, but it depends on the composition and how many teams want to chase. There are still several riders who aren’t a serious threat to win in Paris but can take the yellow jersey from the shoulders of van der Poel. Will Alpecin-Fenix chase down this type of move? I’m not too sure as van der Poel won’t be in yellow after Saturday’s stage anyway.

So, the morning break has a chance, a late attack has a chance, we could see GC attacks and the race could end in a sprint. That’s what you call a brilliant stage.

I would think the teams interested in the green jersey will look to chase the morning break, but it needs a few teams to work together. They’ll hope to make the race end in a sprint, but they’ll be disappointed when the attacks flow and the narrow roads prevents a proper chase. I’ll take a win for Mathieu van der Poel.

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